A six-tweet thread from a South African engineer sums up the apparent state of play: Omicron appears more contagious but far milder than earlier strains of Covid.
South African physicians and hospitals have leaned in this direction all along. But now we have close to three weeks of data and they are saying so with increasing certainty. The lag from symptoms to severe disease is about a week. If large numbers of patients were going to progress to hospitalization or intensive care, they almost surely would have done so by now.
Perhaps one more week and we will know for sure, but at this point it would be a stunning reversal if Omicron were NEARLY as dangerous as earlier strains. And the Omicron’s mildness is not because South Africa is highly vaccinated; only about 1 in 4 South Africans is fully vaccinated.
What has not yet been said - and will surely NOT be by the media - is that assuming this data holds, Omicron’s emergence should end any and all vaccination efforts with the mRNA or DNA/AAV vaccines. Their risk profile has been steadily worsening - one has yet coherently explained the synchronized rise in all-cause mortality in highly vaccinated countries. The Netherlands saw all-cause mortality 41 percent above normal (yes, 41 percent) in its most recent week of data. Only one of five of those deaths was Covid related.
Giving these vaccines for a virus that appears to be becoming a cold for most people is horrendously bad public policy. Especially since the vaccines don’t appear to work very well against Omicron in any case.
All that’s left now is to track the mess from the vaccines. Let’s hope it’s temporary.