Essentially, adults who get vaccinated tend to be more health-conscious and have better access to care in general.
Epidemiologists call this "healthy vaccine user bias,” and it is very visible in flu vaccine data. People who get flu jabs are less likely to die of pneumonia BEFORE and AFTER flu season as well as during it. The vaccine is a marker for health, not a driver of health.
Anyway, this Substack plots bivalent vaccine use by county against crucial measures of health and shows a similar bias for Covid vaccines.
This gap is probably also a key reason that red rural low-Covid vaccine counties have higher overall Covid death rates than blue high-vaccine counties. In general, rural areas are sicker than cities, and the gap has been worsening for decades, long before Covid or the mRNAs, as this Centers for Disease Control paper shows.
“In 1999, the age-adjusted death rate in rural areas was 7% higher than in urban areas; by 2019, the rate in rural areas was 20% higher than in urban areas.”
Just a reminder that the only truly bias-free data comes from large, properly run randomized clinical trials matching a control group and a treatment group. We had those for Covid, but the vaccine companies ruined them in early 2021 (with government approval). Now we have lots of questions - and death rates that remain far above normal.