Why? Because the hedge funds that rule the market care about one thing and one thing only, keeping the flow of free money coming from the Federal Reserve at any cost.
Until this morning, the Fed was going to have to start raising interest rates, because inflation is out of control. But the Fed doesn’t want to raise rates. It is desperate not to raise rates. It should have started almost a year ago, and it looked for any excuse to delay - a delay that has led to the current inflation crisis.
Now the Vladiator has given America’s Finest Central Bank a new excuse to do nothing about inflation, and doing nothing is what this Fed does best.
Thus:
It goes almost without saying this will end very badly; Vlad’s Ukrainian Vacation cannot help but worsen inflation by driving up energy prices. In a couple of months the headline US annual inflation rate could be approaching 10% - devastating for lower-income Americans.
But that’s tomorrow’s problem. The Fed made the hedge funds happy today. And today is what counts!
you worry too much, and there are a LOT of ways out of this box if you just THINK LIKE A LIBERAL: First, inflation is math, and math is RAAAAACCCCCIIIISSSTT! Don't be racist! And it doesn't matter because the MOST BRILLIANT economic mind of our time, AOC, will just tell Brandon to print more money so we can afford "stuff". And if you are hungry, just take the food you want 'cuz it's not stealing if you are hungry. Finally, the energy problem will be gone soon because high school dropout Greta has a plan. There...feel better?
Maybe it’s all part of The Great Reset. A mysterious person created Bitcoin, the start of a global digital currency system. Cash has no place in a online world.
Right? I don't get why people think crypto is so damned wonderful. It's taking things beyond credit cards, and the US govt will not be long in getting its fat little fingers all over it
If you’re a rebel and defiant, your crack is probably funded and marketed by the oligarchs. Just like the proud boys was a media billionaires creation. It's herding 101.
AOC descended from a group of Jewish conquistadors. She is part of the Zionist tribe acting as a Con. Op. while racking in the money and staying neutral on Israel's stronghold on congress and warcrimes. PRINTING MONEY IS GOOD! Why? Because the US was chartered as a SELF-FUNDING Quasi-public-private corporation called US Inc. (chartered by Association LLC; Republic = charter corporation in latin). Get this, the US doesn't have to borrow money at interest from the FED, instead it can print its own moeny, as it was chartered as such but must always be destroying money at a rate that can withstand inflation. Most of the trillions of dollars of debt the US holds is actually fake. The US cannot be in debt to itself. Pre-Vatican 2 Catholics, if they had control over the issuance of money (not credit), would focus on the family unit, and provide with home and property. Zionists who own this sector do not want this. For example, issue quality loans, at either less than 1% interest or none at all, to rural areas that need capital via public banks and have those public banks redistribute their profits back into the local community. Supremacist Jews have financialized all aspects of society and this has caused great harm to the family.
The reason why GOP and Dems tell you we need to have an annual budget to curtail growing "debt", is because if citizens knew that the debt was mostly fake and the US can issue its own currency free of interest, then who would fund the company colony wars... who would fund DARPA black projects?
If Biden wanted to harm Xi and Putin he would have opened up all US fossil fuels--immediately. He didn't---because he wants the US to fail from within.
As a group, Republicans and others have not risen up with a single large voice to contest Biden's destructive energy policies. I have to ask why there are crickets on this. And to think we are currently purchasing oil from Russia! I want to know why our government thinks energy independence was a bad thing.
Maybe we will fail but to say that Biden (or anyone) wants this is ridiculous. Also, the amount of fossil fuels that can be economically extracted are less and less every year. There are no fuels (or not many) to "open up" at this point.
1. It was already deeply oversold and ready for a bounce. This happens even in bear markets, and indeed, bounces are biggest in bear markets.
2. There had been a huge number of puts bought. Hedging by dealers took downside energy out of the market.
3. Everyone was already max negative.
4. Anything better than nuclear Armageddon was already priced in, so the market went up.
I'd wager that this bounce is going to be short-lived, though. Futures are already selling off again, and inflation is real. The Fed will have to keep raising interest rates. Be careful here.
By the way, it's doubtful if the USA can even afford to cut Russia out of SWIFT. Doing so would make it very difficult for the Europeans to pay for the energy they so badly need. And it would accelerate the movement away from the USD as the global reserve currency. Both things would be bad for the USA.
So far yes, but they are apparently wavering. Also (largely unreported) their "stoppage" of Nordstream 2 is only temporary, e.g., there's some permitting paperwork that's getting delayed. The entire response to the (not) unprovoked Ukraine invasion is terrifying display of imbecility on the part of the West's "leaders."
Their utter incompetence is far scarier than the Russians, who mostly seem to want to be left alone.
Since when did the current administration start to work for the good of the USA? Isn't the destruction done on purpose so they can 'build back better'?
There is no destruction other than the fact that things (roads, bridges, fossil fuel based options) are wearing out. "Build back better" was probably a lousy way to phrase this. The value of BBBetter would be positive if the things they are spending money if we will save more by making the investments now rather than waiting until things fall apart. I confess, however, that I don't know every provision in that bill so maybe there are things in there that aren't warranted.
Here is the summary. There isn’t any infrastructure spending in build back better. The infrastructure bill was passed with large bipartisan support and Trump had long called for infrastructure spending.
Personally I would have saved a lot because my tax rate was only going up 2% on part of my income while we would get our SALT back on 100%. I don’t support it because Democrat rule is terrible for the country right now, but I can always count on them to help those of us in the 1% via tax and economic policy!!!
Build Back Better is social engineering and not so green energy boondoggles. I posted the link in my other comment, but here is the breakdown:
Family benefits (childcare, paid leave, universal pre-K) $585 billion
Climate spending $235 billion
Medicaid home and community-based services $150 billion
Medicare hearing benefit $35 billion
Affordable housing support $175 billion
Health-care workforce spending $25 billion
Workforce spending $40 billion
Immigration reform $110 billion
Other spending/investments $110 billion
Total Spending $1.48 trillion
Total Spending Including Tax Credits $2.14 trillion
The infrastructure investments were passed with bipartisan support in early 2021. Trump also promoted those. A tiny investment, over half of which was awarded by Brandon to Bill Gates, for nuclear power.
“Build Back Better” has almost nothing to do with physical infrastructure. It promotes spending on pre-k, but only funded public options and specifically prohibited investment in religious pre-k facilities (where over 50% of US children attend pre-K). It provided subsidies for daycare to drive up the cost, had massive spending on wasteful renewables. It included provisions to force union dues and increased handouts to those who don’t work. It increased child tax credits for the low and middle income, but by less than middle class taxpayers would see in increased costs from the provisions. It invested in public education but had many provisions targeted at ending school choice. It had provisions to fully find universal curriculums for gender and race ideology.
What it didn’t have was a focus on actually building anything………
It would also crush the economy and depress middle class real wages.
Here, read a great analysis of the actual spending and actual harm
"Keep raising that much"? They haven't raised a AT ALL. Wall Street's current hissy fit is just because the Fed is tapering all the free money they give the banks!!
But you are right - that is one reason why they don't want to raise rates. Because it will explode the national debt.
Bad news kiddies - there is no good solution out of the mess that our unbridled spending spree has created. In other words, we are FOOKED.
Not raising rates would inflate away existing debt. It would not "explode the national debt." It would have the opposite effect.
Any the fed does not create money. Credit creates money. If banks do not lend no amount of easing will push on a string. This is why all the inflation hysteria post GFC was massively misplaced.
Both credit expansion and the Fed buying existing debt create money. Just look at the Fed's balance sheet over the past 14 years. There's been plenty of money created, but the multiplier effect has been damped because there has been very little private credit growth. What unleashed this wave of inflation is that this time they essentially put 7 trillion into the hands of consumers instead of portfolio managers. So the new money escaped the financial system and made its way into goods and services.
You have a bizarre sense of monetary policy. The Fed doesn't want to raise rates because it would EXPLODE the interest on the debt. Right now Uncle Sam is selling bonds at rock bottom rates. If those rates go up, we won't be able to raise enough money in taxes to cover the interest payments, much less pay for everything else.
Inflate away the debt??? What about the effects that inflation has on working families?? How long do you think people will allow prices to continue rising - and they can no longer buy food - before there is an armed revolt??? You may not realize this, but people have an aversion to starving to death.
Maybe you can volunteer to explain to all these people that inflation is really in their best interests. Care to do that??
You are all over the place. In direct response to your comment on "exploding the debt" you do not seem to grasp what effect inflation actually has on liabilities. It shrinks them it does not grow them. UST debt service costs are fixed. Are you not familiar with the concept of "inflating away debt?" Google it.
40 yrs ago, I started in a big way, warning of the then gradual losses of our liberty. Yep. Chicken little they thought I was. Not so much today. But I say, WELCOME TO THE CLUB!! Better late than never. But hurry, we do not have much time left to preserve what is left of our liberty. NOW, FINALLY, many are starting to see that!
Well, my wake up call was 9/11. I was in my early twenties at the time. I was dating a girl from Texas so when the towers fell, my summation of the situation "the US government has done this to itself" went down like a shit sandwich. I know your pain my friend.
we should have been trying to repair relations with Russia and worry about China, they are the real threat. Also, what is more globally devastating? Invasion of Ukraine or Taiwan. Yeah, I'm not sure anything is made in Ukraine. Taiwan makes almost all of the worlds semiconductors as well as loads of other stuff.
You are correct but the point is, China in its modern form wouldn't exist without the Rockerfellers and other globalists. There is clearly a JV in place between the Western oligarchs and the CCP. The former want a global social credit system and neo-serfdom, the latter want "face", prestige and a global empire.
Although I expect the CCP to ultimately betray the oligarchs, as always happens when you deal with commies, believe me when I say that the CCP want the US as their new colony and will release a new bioweapon to achieve their goal. Covid is over but the real nightmare is just beginning.
China scares Taiwan enuf, all the semiconductor Fab workers get their guns and no more cell phones or PCs or switches anywhere. Worldwide depression, fast. China doesn't want that hate... Yet.
You misunderstand, although you correctly identify the chip fab issue.
China doesn't care about Taiwan for any strategic reason, it's merely a "face" issue. Understand "face" and you understand a lot of Asia. Yes, it's stupid, but it's a cultural thing, and to use a phrase I hate, it is what it is.
Now think about the "backdoor vaccines" China was working on. Then think why China "graciously" gave the genome sequence of the spike protein to the world, then used a traditional whole-virus technology for itself. Now read speeches by PLA generals about how they believe the US is their rightful clay and that they need Lebensraum. Finally, think how CCP Joe mandated the entire US military to get vaxxed or get sacked (harshly).
Biden doesn't know what day it is...I'm more the president than he is. And as a baboon, I have a bright red arse and carry infectious diseases you don't want (come to think of it, a bit like Hunter after a BDSM session).
Neither the POTUS nor the imbecilic VPOTUS are running anything except their mouths. They are the inept PR front of whatever unelected group of people is actually deciding things behind the scenes. Why aren't more people asking these questions? It gets mentioned only very occasionally as an aside to something else being discussed.
Easy cakewalk for CCP to own the global chip manufacturing epicenter by next week. The U.S. market could collapse and the tower of tech would be on its knee's. It's all there on a silver platter.
And where were the American taxpayer bought missiles to bring down the Chinese aircraft? They’ll still be available for use when the Chicoms arrive on a permanent basis.
This "war" is Hillary, Obama, FJB and Europe's fault not Russia. Ukraine elected a pro russian govt during Obama's time. But, we and Europe didn't like that. So, Hillary staged a coup and installed a pro euro govt. Not very democratic is it? All Europe and US had to do was to commit that Ukraine could NOT be in NATO and this is all avoided. But, no, Biden needs his Ukraine profits and a wag the dog war to distract from his vaxx disaster, inflation disaster, OUR border disaster (hmmm, defend Ukraine border but NOT USA border), debt disaster, education disaster.......
Very much agree. James Baker, Sam Nunn and guys like that knew that NATO expansion had to be limited. Putin had no choice but to make this move. This whole ordeal was, as you stated, totally avoidable. But the US and Western Europe kept prodding and poking, prodding and poking, until the Bear awoke and fought back. And only the common people and soldiers will feel the brunt of it while the leaders in Brussels and DC boldy guard their laptops and keurig machines.
Remember people...this is all intentional. How many times did Trump warn what would come with inflation and energy prices if the puppet was placed into the WH? The surest path to destroy peoples lives is thru hyper inflation and increased energy costs leading to wait forrrrr it....the very same Government who did this to you will thru propaganda, and false compassion offer to send you more FREE money-stimulus so you and your kids will have to pay back thru increased taxes over time. How many times has this played out thru the decades getting more and more people dependent on the Government?
Yeah I have been wondering how long it will be until we hear about the next stimulus checks to help with the high cost of gas because of the evil price gouging oil companies.
Right and you know its coming. More entitled and on the dole people means a better chance at the voting booth in the greater context. Just like open borders. The path and premise of the commiecRAT is so predictable...
How out of touch are these people to think that a paltry $1200 check lasts more than a week at best? It's like tossing a few quarters at people to placate them and keep the pitchforks at bay. The people who want to send out stimulus checks spend $1200 on a Friday night dinner.
It's a continuation of what Naomi Klein masterfully documented in her book the Shock Doctrine (2005). The Washington Consensus and neoliberal establishment have created an alternate economy for themselves and wars are an essential part of it. The stock market will continue to rise, because the individuals and entities with real money and power are already protected from the downsides and positioned to profit handsomely. Oh, and it's also a fabulously convenient distraction for our governments to help us lose sight of what they've done to us the past 2 years... which was also another version of the 'Shock Doctrine' in action. For those who haven't read it, it's a hell of a book. Definitely worth reading.
We need everything made here in America and start opening more nuclear power plants. And the green new deal is dead. So we dont wake up to the sounds of explosions.
Inflation doesn’t include the cost of food (20-100% increase) or gas (more than doubled). The middle and lower classes are hurting a lot more than you think. On top of that taxes keep going up to pay teachers higher wages and bonuses for their ‘bravery’ during COVID.
The US needs to go on an austerity program, slash the size and scope of government, and bring all of the jobs back from China and overseas, close the borders and send all of the ‘refugees’ home ASAP, and get tough on crime. Of course the US also needs to shake up education, stop backing student loans and house loans, disolve the teachers unions and slash grants of all kinds.
Why? Because the hedge funds that rule the market care about one thing and one thing only, keeping the flow of free money coming from the Federal Reserve at any cost."
Alex needs to stick to pharma analysis. That statement makes zero sense. The Fed is far more likely to raise rates if the market is going up than if the market is crashing, which is what it was doing early in the day (DOW down over 800 points). Hedge funds making sure the markets don't crash means less free money (see cheap debt) coming from the Fed.
What happened today was markets were spooked by the initial reports and scale of the invasion. That sent the DOW down over 800 points and gold and oil soaring. Gold was up over $50 and oil up over $7 breaking the $100 per barrel mark before the opening bell rung and early after markets opened. But as the day progressed and markets were assured the US and Europe weren't going to actually escalate by sending actual troops, the spook cooled and the markets completely reversed. DOW, S&P500 and NASDAQ all ended up positive and oil and gold ended up negative.
You have two dynamics now at play. The Fed hinting at raising rates to curb inflation (good luck with that) and now a countervailing dynamic of war that threatens Europe, which typically would result in looser fiscal policy to finance the war effort or paper over economic impacts from it. Volatility is through the roof because uncertainty about which way this is going to go is through the roof. That's what this is about. Not hedge funds.
Russia set up base camp at Chernobyl, 4 shutdown reactors. But the spent fuel pools contain 33,000 medium size nuclear weapons, so they cannot be shelled or missiled or nuke there. Very strategic. I did the calcs that is my specialty beside technical stock trading.
Alex does not appear to have even a basic understanding of markets. He took a screen shot of US equity markets as some sort of mic drop.
USTs are the best barometer of inflation expectations and risk appetite. What did they do yesterday?
How about HY spreads? Euro stocks are more sensitive to all of this than US stocks, what did they do?
Fed funds are one way of tightening but there are many others. The fed is tightening.
The fed is committed to tightening and everyone knows it. Powell is doing a good job compared to the clown show during Trump when he did a complete 180 due to political pressure in a matter of a quarter.
Alex does a great job on vaccines, it detracts from his credibility when he runs his mouth on stuff he is obviously clueless about.
Um....UST's are highly manipulated by the Fed and their traditional inflation market signal is completely broken by Fed intervention. That's why rates have remained at historic lows despite historic asset price inflation.
The Fed is tightening???? Um, no. A decrease in QE is not "tightening" and in fact the Fed's balance sheet hit an all time high last week. The Fed continues to pour fuel on the inflationary fires, not tighten. So far all they've done is think about thinking about tightening. Powell has done nothing different thus far than he did under Trump. And, of course, anybody who knows anything knows they can't possibly tighten enough to put out the inflation fire now without crashing markets and sending the economy into recession, possibly a depression. That's what started to happen the last time they tried to tighten but couldn't even get more than 75 basis points in before having to reverse course. When/if they try again, the same thing will happen, though likely it will be an even more violent market reaction.
My eyes are rolling into the back of my head right now. I do not know what to tell you if you do not think the fed has begun tightening. I suppose you could look at fed fund futures but what fun is it using actual data when you just know it in your bones amiright?
LOL "if anybody who knows anything" knows it then it is already fully priced into the market and will not happen. The surest bet is to the bet against the guy who thinks he has things all figured out.
Your eyes are rolling into the back of your head....finding the empty space behind them. Jawboning, speculative futures, is not the Fed tightening. The Fed is empirically not tightening. Still, you'll talk about data but apparently have no idea what useful data actually is.
How can you declare they're almost never right and that we have no way to know if they are in the same breath?
If we can't know then we can't say they're almost never right....or wrong for that matter.
There are many days, maybe even most days, where even the pro's are doing little more than speculating at the catalysts behind the market moves and outcomes for that day. They're looking for correlations but we know that's not necessarily the same thing as causation. But days like today aren't that difficult to know with great certainty what caused the great uncertainty that led to the great volatility. It wasn't hedge funds trying to keep the presses running hot.....today.
What we are in is not even remotely capitalism. It is a state run system run by a relatively small circle of powerful cliques.
The Fed has always been abused by the powerful. Starting on Day 1 in 1913.
But it is now so overt and on such a large scale that the most affluent are arrogating $trilliins - yes $trillions in the form of near zero cost debt, and using that debt to buy up the country. Central bank policy like this is grossly redistributive - away from most of society and toward the ultra affluent.
Simultaneously, the government can spend without the legislative burden of paying for it. It simply comes at a cost to everyone in the form of lost purchasing power (inflation).
Thank you. I agree - explaining the markets with one brush stroke is like explaining the rise and fall in COVID cases through the lens of mask mandates.
Thousands of factors in play - none linear. Intertwined.
I could not make it through all of this but if you think inflation increases wealth you might want to reassess your understanding of inflation and the implications for cost of capital.
Inflation ( that is, creation of money out of nothing OFTEN resulting in increased costs) DOES increase wealth. Not of the masses, but of Wall St and those who get their hands on those fiat dollars first. For the rest of us, inflation is a hidden tax. $15?hr? So now that most new workers have it, $15 is the new $10. As I have repeatedly said over the years, one day, we may all be millionaires, but to what avail if a loaf of bread costs half of that?
The value of any asset is the present value of all future cash flows. Inflation increases discount rates which decreases present value. The further out the cash flow the more sensitive the underlying asset is to discount rates. The reason markets have been selling off YTD is due to inflation expectations and the implications for discount rates.
This was a short-covering event for SPX. All the Wall Street types were concerned about what might happen - would President Klain decide to do something really nutty, like a winter war in Russia?
Turns out - no colossal winter war blunder. It really is just a Wag-the-Dog event. Policy became clear: "We're gonna blame inflation & shortages on PUTIN!!" So, the shorts cover, and prices rally accordingly.
May be correct about the Fed too. "Can't raise rates during wartime! Americans must sacrifice the value of their money for Democracy in Ukraine!" I'm sure the policy will all depend on the polling.
This isn't a failure, it's a feature. Look at Biden's Fed nominees and tell me they care about the little guy. They're actively trying to destroy the little guy. At least we live in interesting times.
What I want to understand is WHY do Americans need to suffer--as El Demento says--so we can support a democracy in a country that is not democratic?
Don't get me wrong: I feel badly for Ukrainians who will suffer badly from the invasion.
Here's another mystery: WHY does the US continue to import oil from Russia? Why do these imports continue when the US has lots of oil & natural gas--and El Demento needs only restart the drilling?
I guess I need to ask the dopey little girl from Westchester and the mouthy Swedish brat.
I shorted every index last evening. At noon I looked like a hero. I went to the dentist and by the time I got done I had lost $1000. I took it in stride though. Because in the end, nothing can stop the market crash that is coming. Absolutely nothing.
Virtually all of the billionaire globalists who are now waging their War on Humanity, to effect massive depopulation and to turn the rest of us into their slaves, made their money by leveraging government coercion in one way or another - either by directly connecting to the government money teat, by relying on sham government "regulation" and bogus patents backed by stables of patent attorneys to eliminate competition, or by playing the Fed-supported markets.
None of this would have been possible without the massive government counterfeiting operation that's been going on for 100 years or more, but which has been radically accelerating since 1971 when Nixon, under arch-globalist Kissinger's influence, closed the Fed's gold and silver windows for good. Over the last 18 months or so, the US money supply has been roughly doubled, with the lion's share of that going to support these bubble markets, but more of it than in past years has been trickling down into price inflation which is finally starting to be seen as a serious problem by the man in the street.
All fiat currencies go to 0, and the US$ has already lost 99% of its value since 1913 when the Fed was created, ostensibly just to act as a liquidity backstop and a clearinghouse for the private banks.
This Ponzi scheme really got going in the late 1970s, and when the man in the street caught wise and started exchanging his rapidly depreciating currency for Krugerrands, something had to be done to nip that comeuppance to the globalists in the bud. Enter new Fed head Paul Volcker, who abruptly raised interest rates to 15-20%, torpedoing the economy, but bringing the gold price down from it's peak of $800/ounce to about $400 an ounce, where it persisted for a couple of decades.
Meanwhile, inflation continued on it's merry way, but has been disguised since 1980 by massive doctoring of the two official measures of inflation: the consumer-oriented CPI, and the Fed's preferred measure, the PCE deflator.
Actual inflation since then, basis the undoctored 1980 CPI, which is tracked from month to month at economist John Williams's ShadowStats website using government data, has averaged 10% a year since 1980, and has now reached 16% and continuing to climb, as the second of the two charts on this page shows: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts.
Thus, every dollar stolen from your paycheck in 1980 and ostensibly added to your Social Security account, not only hasn't, like conservative savings, been put out at interest so that it multiplies over time: if you retire now, that dollar, which you haven't had the use of for 40 years, is now worth the 1980 equivalent of about 5 cents.
The only group in this country whose incomes have more or less kept up with actual inflation are those in the top 10% by income: the inflation adjusted median income in the US since 1980 is now only a fraction of what it was, in spite of wage and salary increases and nominal COLA adjustments.
The parasitical rich and upper management classes (the "virtuals") have sucked the lifeblood out of the middle class and the working classes, and as the bubble markets begin, finally, to collapse, money coming out of those markets is jacking up consumer prices, even as the supply is being constricted by socialist regulation and central planning in response to manufactured crises like the COVID and global warming scams, and manufactured wars.
Also before the 2014 Crimean vote, senior USA people like John Kerry and John McCain visited the Ukraine and told the government armed , angry very right people should be allowed protest and this was against a democratically elected government.
Even at home in the USA no one would have tolerated protest like this. They would have been met with rubber bullets at a minimum.
But just like Antfia and BLM they are peaceful protests.
Justin Trudeau supports the tyrannical leaders in the Ukraine and is one against the peaceful ones at one. 5M + Canadians need to sign and simultaneously email the GG and use it to tell the Canadian GG to dissolve the government. They want central bank digital currency no cash, so Canada can be like China and have a social credit system. He said he like Chinese dictatorship and we can see he was to be a dictator of Canada.
All countries who want to control all money need to be removed now, as they don't work for the people they want the people enslaved.
In 2014 85-90% Crimea voted to leave Ukraine. They did not want to be part of country with a tyrannical government installed by the west. These 2 annexed provinces feel the same. I would not be surprised most of Ukraine would rather have prosperity with Putin, that the crap the government installed by the west gave them before 2014.
Want to see the real effect of inflation on real people before all the number massaging that goes into todays reported CPI? Go to http://www.shadowstats.com . 7% headline would be 11% based on 1990 method of calculation and 15% if done by the 1980 methodology. You can’t eat hedonic adjustments.
You carry a supercomputer in your pocket and can purchase anything you want without leaving your home. Hedonic adjustments have no hope for accounting for these. Ex Healthcare and education there has been massive deflation not inflation since the 1990s.
Hydro, nuclear and coal and gas. Wind and solar is useless except very localised (solar in Spain is a great idea seeing they have summer all year around as compared to here north of the 60th parallell).
Not to mention that China owns a lot of interest in windturbines in Europe.
Sweden used to be self-sufficient on electricity (lots and lots of hydro big and small, nuclear - we have plenty of uranium ore). This was before we became a slave-state in the EUSSR of course. Unfortunately, our socialist democratic governement behaves like your achetypical retarded hick coming to the Big City for the first time and being taken on a ride by everyone he meets. Also they rather make deals with greens, feminazis, LGBTP-crowd, and moslems than put own people and nation first.
The inflation rate is already well into double digits. The CPI ( aka CP Lie) has been modified several times since the 70s to make the situation look better. But you are right, this Ukraine situation will make inflation worse. Fed tightening needs to happen no matter what and it should have happened a long time ago. I’m a manufacturer and our PPI was at about 7% when I was seeing double digit material cost increases nearly a year ago.
Here's the real reason IMO the feds don't want to raise the rate. Just a few years ago, the interest alone on the federal debt was 200 billion a year. Now the federal debt is 29 trillion plus. Imagine what would happen if interest rates went up. The federal interest payments on the debt would skyrocket even more and consume much of the federal budget. We're becoming Greece...
The economy has always been a sham run by the wealthy who have no actual skills to produce a single fucking thing besides gambling on other people's business.
Banks are getting free money at 0% interest. They can loan as much money as they want because it’s free! Has that credit card company lowered your interest rate to 3or4%? No, it’s still 12-28%. There’s a lot stock being purchased on margin. If the market really crashes then those margin calls start a coming. That accelerates the selling and the losses for you and the big hedge funds. The markets should have dropped 40-50% as soon as Hiden was elected. These guys know he’s an idiot. It didn’t because of the free money.
I like your political coverage but this is embarrassingly ignorant.
Hedge funds have no direct influence on Federal Reserve's monetary policies, so they don't "keep the flow of free money coming" (whatever that means).
The largest owner of stocks are owned by individuals via mutual funds and ETFs run by Blackrock/Vanguard. The speculative hedge funds (who manages money for high net-worth individuals, endowment funds, etc.) are often "long-short" and are supposed to perform well during large drawdowns, hence the word "hedge" in their names. Many of them do not benefit from a bull market.
That seems to be the case from what I am reading. It's all so covert. Putin seems to be doing what he has to do to shut them down. And Zelinsky seems to be aligned with Putin behind the scenes. I do not think Putin cares about US sanctions.
It's the end of the world how we know it and I feel fi... no, like turning Japanese, I feel like turning Japanese, I really think so. So...goodbye yellow brick road.
Interestingly, Dick Morris points out that by causing oil prices to rise so much Biden is financing
Putin's war effort in Ukraine. Did you also notice that Biden and Putin are 5 letter words? Take the n off and both are four letter words. Bide and Puti.
Raise the interest rate to fight inflation. Not going to happen. Higher interest rates would take a chunk out of the Green New Deal expenditures that aren't working out so well because a much larger portion of the Fed expenditures would go to pay for higher interest rates on the $30T of debt we have so wisely created! All of this is theatre! Bad theatre that is! Sides! Raising interest rates will soon be.....whispering across the podium...RACIST!
Of course, those are the top criminals of the so named "western democracy"... they are the ultimate neo nazi that rule everything.
Financial Markets are completely rigged, if Sec was doing his job in the last 30 years, they could have deleted Morgan, Goldman and all of their "children"... You could have built a couple of max security prisons in that time, to fit them all...
The peculiarity of Wall Streets is that they can play with dems or cons, no problems! Or in other words they put the money on both so they're sure to win...! Cons legislators and Demo legislators have permitted all kind of financial products without denying a single one to this Ponzi Teams... Derivatives and Options are the top of the financial shit.
Leman crash? Why? Does any american matters of Leman crash now?? Don't think so..
They even allowed videogamers and kids to play in the markets too, through various platform, one for all: Robin hood one!! And they even allowed them to be quoted!!!
I mean, do you really want to change last 2 years of dictatorships in the west? So take them all and and jail them , take all of their money and distributed to everyone. This guys are so nazi and arrogant, that even go to TV shows/news and talk about inequality... poor men and women... saying that it has gown too much... What a SQUALID show is western society showing around the world.
Instead, you did as you did with rests of Twin Towers, you hided them into the ocean... who knows, may be someone could have checked if they really melt or could have find clear traces of powerful WESTERN explosives...
This is not accurate, the market had already priced in a Russian invasion, this was just a reversal, especially since its clear US/NATO are coming together. Also inflation only partly due to low interest rates, more has to do with retiring baby boomers/unexpected results of pandemic
Biden told Puten it’s ok to invade because then he can tell Powell to halt rate hikes and blame economic consequences on Putin. The “sanctions” are a smoke screen, Wall Street gets richer along with Pelosi and all the other elite cronies. Everybody else can eat the proverbial cake and drone on about “saving democracy”. Après moi, le déluge….
Brandon has put all his chips on blue and yellow, and Putin is going to roll him in the first real-life U.S.-Russian toe-to-toe and he is going to humiliated further, completely owned. Doing Ukraine was planned as a Hail Mary pass and he is going to get sacked on his own 1-yard line. Hey isn't Janet Yellen of "Ukrainian" descent?
Russia and so by proxy Trump caused gas prices to escalate and result in hyper inflation. That will be the DNCNN repeat and idiot Amerikans will believe it.
you worry too much, and there are a LOT of ways out of this box if you just THINK LIKE A LIBERAL: First, inflation is math, and math is RAAAAACCCCCIIIISSSTT! Don't be racist! And it doesn't matter because the MOST BRILLIANT economic mind of our time, AOC, will just tell Brandon to print more money so we can afford "stuff". And if you are hungry, just take the food you want 'cuz it's not stealing if you are hungry. Finally, the energy problem will be gone soon because high school dropout Greta has a plan. There...feel better?
It’s not stealing if there are dresses on the racks, shoes on the shelf or jewelry in the case either, apparently.
If you are an oppressed minority it's okay to steal 'cause "equity." <sarc>
I am an oppressed minority .... I'm UNVACINATED bullied everywhere
your blood will become kinda valuable. pretend you're jabbed.
I identify as being jabbed. Therefore, I am jabbed.
The Vaxx Pushers Desperate Last Stand
https://markoshinskie8de.substack.com/p/the-vax-pushers-pathetic-last-stand?utm_source=url
Except I don't think you're a minority anymore. Because most Americans have said f.u. to the "booster", hence we're mostly unvaxxed.
I am minority and will stay that way until enough new Americans are born (and not vaccinated)
Me too!
GT, meet you at the local mall in an hour. wear a mask
remind me again how you were hurt.
Maybe Meghan the Duchess of Los Angeles can explain about oppressed minorities.
Clark, You caught the sarcasm right?
I'll edit the original post to add <sarc>
I thought it was reparation.
Heh. Yes a lot of people buy into the reparation gospel so I see how that could have been misinterpreted without the <sarc> indicator.
Reparation is just one aspect of equity, I guess. It's all sarcasm, or should be.
“I think everything oughta be legal. Then we wouldn’t have no crime.” — Bro. Dave Gardener, c. 1960
Nothing is a crime (for some)
😂🤣😂🤣😂. Love it!!
Maybe it’s all part of The Great Reset. A mysterious person created Bitcoin, the start of a global digital currency system. Cash has no place in a online world.
Cash cannot be controlled
Less bad than freezing and stealing all of it
Right? I don't get why people think crypto is so damned wonderful. It's taking things beyond credit cards, and the US govt will not be long in getting its fat little fingers all over it
Bitcoin already follows the stock market up and down. This isn’t the currency of anarchists. It’s wall streets.
NWO loves bitcoin.
I foresee a black market/barter system to cut the tech bullies out of the loop.
black markets thrive during a war / enemy occupation and during a financial crisis - remember 1929 and its aftermath, WWll.
Brilliantly amusing - and your name too. Love it!
Fed policy is definitely a bipartisan effort.
Robin Hood was a bad guy!
is that according to the NWO? if so I'm glad I read the story, thorougly enjoyed it, and tried to be merry too.
It's all in his name--Robbin' Hood(lem). By the way, what percentage did he and his merry men get?
Trillions
It's quite astounding when you realize these obscenely wealthy people simply never have quite enough money. Everyone else be damned.
If you’re a rebel and defiant, your crack is probably funded and marketed by the oligarchs. Just like the proud boys was a media billionaires creation. It's herding 101.
Ya, and they hate Israel, which for me is a big signpost! Dems really do hate them. I love them, Jesus is Jewish!
😆
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
AOC descended from a group of Jewish conquistadors. She is part of the Zionist tribe acting as a Con. Op. while racking in the money and staying neutral on Israel's stronghold on congress and warcrimes. PRINTING MONEY IS GOOD! Why? Because the US was chartered as a SELF-FUNDING Quasi-public-private corporation called US Inc. (chartered by Association LLC; Republic = charter corporation in latin). Get this, the US doesn't have to borrow money at interest from the FED, instead it can print its own moeny, as it was chartered as such but must always be destroying money at a rate that can withstand inflation. Most of the trillions of dollars of debt the US holds is actually fake. The US cannot be in debt to itself. Pre-Vatican 2 Catholics, if they had control over the issuance of money (not credit), would focus on the family unit, and provide with home and property. Zionists who own this sector do not want this. For example, issue quality loans, at either less than 1% interest or none at all, to rural areas that need capital via public banks and have those public banks redistribute their profits back into the local community. Supremacist Jews have financialized all aspects of society and this has caused great harm to the family.
The reason why GOP and Dems tell you we need to have an annual budget to curtail growing "debt", is because if citizens knew that the debt was mostly fake and the US can issue its own currency free of interest, then who would fund the company colony wars... who would fund DARPA black projects?
The market went up because no serious sanctions were put in place.
If Biden wanted to harm Xi and Putin he would have opened up all US fossil fuels--immediately. He didn't---because he wants the US to fail from within.
And fail we will...
Is this a thing about "Brandon" exhibiting sentience? Hope this does not sound rude..
No, it's real. He's in late stage dementia. I saw my father die of dementia and I'd give Brandon maybe two more years.
2 more years; we cannot afford 2 more months!
As a group, Republicans and others have not risen up with a single large voice to contest Biden's destructive energy policies. I have to ask why there are crickets on this. And to think we are currently purchasing oil from Russia! I want to know why our government thinks energy independence was a bad thing.
Biden doesn't know what day it is. Please. Someone else is calling the shots.
Maybe we will fail but to say that Biden (or anyone) wants this is ridiculous. Also, the amount of fossil fuels that can be economically extracted are less and less every year. There are no fuels (or not many) to "open up" at this point.
That's not quite true. We're camped on a lot of fossil fuel in the US. Holding it in reserve.
The above, and several other reasons:
1. It was already deeply oversold and ready for a bounce. This happens even in bear markets, and indeed, bounces are biggest in bear markets.
2. There had been a huge number of puts bought. Hedging by dealers took downside energy out of the market.
3. Everyone was already max negative.
4. Anything better than nuclear Armageddon was already priced in, so the market went up.
I'd wager that this bounce is going to be short-lived, though. Futures are already selling off again, and inflation is real. The Fed will have to keep raising interest rates. Be careful here.
By the way, it's doubtful if the USA can even afford to cut Russia out of SWIFT. Doing so would make it very difficult for the Europeans to pay for the energy they so badly need. And it would accelerate the movement away from the USD as the global reserve currency. Both things would be bad for the USA.
Didn’t Germany already say no to the SWIFT thing?
So far yes, but they are apparently wavering. Also (largely unreported) their "stoppage" of Nordstream 2 is only temporary, e.g., there's some permitting paperwork that's getting delayed. The entire response to the (not) unprovoked Ukraine invasion is terrifying display of imbecility on the part of the West's "leaders."
Their utter incompetence is far scarier than the Russians, who mostly seem to want to be left alone.
Since when did the current administration start to work for the good of the USA? Isn't the destruction done on purpose so they can 'build back better'?
Crack pipes for all! 🤦♀️😂
There is no destruction other than the fact that things (roads, bridges, fossil fuel based options) are wearing out. "Build back better" was probably a lousy way to phrase this. The value of BBBetter would be positive if the things they are spending money if we will save more by making the investments now rather than waiting until things fall apart. I confess, however, that I don't know every provision in that bill so maybe there are things in there that aren't warranted.
Here is the summary. There isn’t any infrastructure spending in build back better. The infrastructure bill was passed with large bipartisan support and Trump had long called for infrastructure spending.
Personally I would have saved a lot because my tax rate was only going up 2% on part of my income while we would get our SALT back on 100%. I don’t support it because Democrat rule is terrible for the country right now, but I can always count on them to help those of us in the 1% via tax and economic policy!!!
Build Back Better is social engineering and not so green energy boondoggles. I posted the link in my other comment, but here is the breakdown:
Family benefits (childcare, paid leave, universal pre-K) $585 billion
Climate spending $235 billion
Medicaid home and community-based services $150 billion
Medicare hearing benefit $35 billion
Affordable housing support $175 billion
Health-care workforce spending $25 billion
Workforce spending $40 billion
Immigration reform $110 billion
Other spending/investments $110 billion
Total Spending $1.48 trillion
Total Spending Including Tax Credits $2.14 trillion
The infrastructure investments were passed with bipartisan support in early 2021. Trump also promoted those. A tiny investment, over half of which was awarded by Brandon to Bill Gates, for nuclear power.
“Build Back Better” has almost nothing to do with physical infrastructure. It promotes spending on pre-k, but only funded public options and specifically prohibited investment in religious pre-k facilities (where over 50% of US children attend pre-K). It provided subsidies for daycare to drive up the cost, had massive spending on wasteful renewables. It included provisions to force union dues and increased handouts to those who don’t work. It increased child tax credits for the low and middle income, but by less than middle class taxpayers would see in increased costs from the provisions. It invested in public education but had many provisions targeted at ending school choice. It had provisions to fully find universal curriculums for gender and race ideology.
What it didn’t have was a focus on actually building anything………
It would also crush the economy and depress middle class real wages.
Here, read a great analysis of the actual spending and actual harm
https://taxfoundation.org/build-back-better-plan-reconciliation-bill-tax/
Stocks will head up on free Fed stimulus.
"Keep raising that much"? They haven't raised a AT ALL. Wall Street's current hissy fit is just because the Fed is tapering all the free money they give the banks!!
But you are right - that is one reason why they don't want to raise rates. Because it will explode the national debt.
Bad news kiddies - there is no good solution out of the mess that our unbridled spending spree has created. In other words, we are FOOKED.
Not raising rates would inflate away existing debt. It would not "explode the national debt." It would have the opposite effect.
Any the fed does not create money. Credit creates money. If banks do not lend no amount of easing will push on a string. This is why all the inflation hysteria post GFC was massively misplaced.
Both credit expansion and the Fed buying existing debt create money. Just look at the Fed's balance sheet over the past 14 years. There's been plenty of money created, but the multiplier effect has been damped because there has been very little private credit growth. What unleashed this wave of inflation is that this time they essentially put 7 trillion into the hands of consumers instead of portfolio managers. So the new money escaped the financial system and made its way into goods and services.
You have a bizarre sense of monetary policy. The Fed doesn't want to raise rates because it would EXPLODE the interest on the debt. Right now Uncle Sam is selling bonds at rock bottom rates. If those rates go up, we won't be able to raise enough money in taxes to cover the interest payments, much less pay for everything else.
Inflate away the debt??? What about the effects that inflation has on working families?? How long do you think people will allow prices to continue rising - and they can no longer buy food - before there is an armed revolt??? You may not realize this, but people have an aversion to starving to death.
Maybe you can volunteer to explain to all these people that inflation is really in their best interests. Care to do that??
You are all over the place. In direct response to your comment on "exploding the debt" you do not seem to grasp what effect inflation actually has on liabilities. It shrinks them it does not grow them. UST debt service costs are fixed. Are you not familiar with the concept of "inflating away debt?" Google it.
And never will be, with this administration. It's all empty words and stale flatulence.
I thought the prairie dogs had come out to play
The Market Went up because the "FED Wire" is still intact. PPT was called into action.
To paraphrase another blog...Wolf Street...."Nothing ever goes to SHIT in a straight line".
The 'market' went up to trap the retail 'investors'
it may be the idea, yet to play out, that russia will stop at the donbas port which the government successfully kept from the rebels in 2014......
i have a position on a high vix which biden cost me!
releasing oil is weak tea but has emotional effect, all trades are emotional!
Zaktly
Wait until China gets into the game...
A year ago when I was trying to explain this to people, no-one understood what I was on about. I now know what it means to be a Cassandra.
These days, lots of people get it. Unfortunately I don't feel any better for it.
40 yrs ago, I started in a big way, warning of the then gradual losses of our liberty. Yep. Chicken little they thought I was. Not so much today. But I say, WELCOME TO THE CLUB!! Better late than never. But hurry, we do not have much time left to preserve what is left of our liberty. NOW, FINALLY, many are starting to see that!
Well, my wake up call was 9/11. I was in my early twenties at the time. I was dating a girl from Texas so when the towers fell, my summation of the situation "the US government has done this to itself" went down like a shit sandwich. I know your pain my friend.
https://odysee.com/@DivergentStreams:3/Everything_Is_A_Rich_Man's_Trick:9
we should have been trying to repair relations with Russia and worry about China, they are the real threat. Also, what is more globally devastating? Invasion of Ukraine or Taiwan. Yeah, I'm not sure anything is made in Ukraine. Taiwan makes almost all of the worlds semiconductors as well as loads of other stuff.
You are correct but the point is, China in its modern form wouldn't exist without the Rockerfellers and other globalists. There is clearly a JV in place between the Western oligarchs and the CCP. The former want a global social credit system and neo-serfdom, the latter want "face", prestige and a global empire.
Although I expect the CCP to ultimately betray the oligarchs, as always happens when you deal with commies, believe me when I say that the CCP want the US as their new colony and will release a new bioweapon to achieve their goal. Covid is over but the real nightmare is just beginning.
My fear is you are correct! COVID was the Communist test run. The next monster disease they release on us will be much worse!
Sharon,
Fraudci, Bill Hates and friends ( again, the US gov. ) are the ring leaders. Destroying from within. China pleasantly surprised we r helping them.
Climate scare is the foundation for the plandemic and other scams yet to come.
agreed
Excellent strategy! The Dem's and our media zealots made Trump's Russia the boogie man - not CCP. Galactic fail.
I will be honest I am not really good at this type of stuff. Drugs and medicine are my thing my expertise.
Try to understand it--then you'll get a headache and can take drugs.
Funny sh¡t here
I will lose my job if I use drugs, I know that you are kidding as well.
China scares Taiwan enuf, all the semiconductor Fab workers get their guns and no more cell phones or PCs or switches anywhere. Worldwide depression, fast. China doesn't want that hate... Yet.
You misunderstand, although you correctly identify the chip fab issue.
China doesn't care about Taiwan for any strategic reason, it's merely a "face" issue. Understand "face" and you understand a lot of Asia. Yes, it's stupid, but it's a cultural thing, and to use a phrase I hate, it is what it is.
Now think about the "backdoor vaccines" China was working on. Then think why China "graciously" gave the genome sequence of the spike protein to the world, then used a traditional whole-virus technology for itself. Now read speeches by PLA generals about how they believe the US is their rightful clay and that they need Lebensraum. Finally, think how CCP Joe mandated the entire US military to get vaxxed or get sacked (harshly).
It's insane but it's happening.
Then do the math.
Even many of the vaxed are done with that game.
Looks like they’re moving semi-conductor manufacturing to TX — just what Austin needs, more people! https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-austin-texas-taiwan-35d38afb0b45569f9e5fba540453ce29
biden wants to balkanize russia. that outcome is not in the chinese 20 year plan.
putin is on firm ground!
Biden doesn't know what day it is...I'm more the president than he is. And as a baboon, I have a bright red arse and carry infectious diseases you don't want (come to think of it, a bit like Hunter after a BDSM session).
The even LARGER problem is that our VP is more inept than our cognitively impaired POTUS
Neither the POTUS nor the imbecilic VPOTUS are running anything except their mouths. They are the inept PR front of whatever unelected group of people is actually deciding things behind the scenes. Why aren't more people asking these questions? It gets mentioned only very occasionally as an aside to something else being discussed.
Easy cakewalk for CCP to own the global chip manufacturing epicenter by next week. The U.S. market could collapse and the tower of tech would be on its knee's. It's all there on a silver platter.
splatter more likely.
They are watching closely.
A Staged Russia/Ukraine Conflict Is Part of the Plan To Take Down the Current World Order
"Coincidentally" Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s defense airspace on the same day that Russia invades Ukraine.
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/a-staged-russiaukraine-conflict-is
And where were the American taxpayer bought missiles to bring down the Chinese aircraft? They’ll still be available for use when the Chicoms arrive on a permanent basis.
Don't poke the panda
Capital fleeing the EU,Alex. Gotta keep the global perspective in mind.
This "war" is Hillary, Obama, FJB and Europe's fault not Russia. Ukraine elected a pro russian govt during Obama's time. But, we and Europe didn't like that. So, Hillary staged a coup and installed a pro euro govt. Not very democratic is it? All Europe and US had to do was to commit that Ukraine could NOT be in NATO and this is all avoided. But, no, Biden needs his Ukraine profits and a wag the dog war to distract from his vaxx disaster, inflation disaster, OUR border disaster (hmmm, defend Ukraine border but NOT USA border), debt disaster, education disaster.......
Very much agree. James Baker, Sam Nunn and guys like that knew that NATO expansion had to be limited. Putin had no choice but to make this move. This whole ordeal was, as you stated, totally avoidable. But the US and Western Europe kept prodding and poking, prodding and poking, until the Bear awoke and fought back. And only the common people and soldiers will feel the brunt of it while the leaders in Brussels and DC boldy guard their laptops and keurig machines.
Remember people...this is all intentional. How many times did Trump warn what would come with inflation and energy prices if the puppet was placed into the WH? The surest path to destroy peoples lives is thru hyper inflation and increased energy costs leading to wait forrrrr it....the very same Government who did this to you will thru propaganda, and false compassion offer to send you more FREE money-stimulus so you and your kids will have to pay back thru increased taxes over time. How many times has this played out thru the decades getting more and more people dependent on the Government?
Yeah I have been wondering how long it will be until we hear about the next stimulus checks to help with the high cost of gas because of the evil price gouging oil companies.
Right and you know its coming. More entitled and on the dole people means a better chance at the voting booth in the greater context. Just like open borders. The path and premise of the commiecRAT is so predictable...
How out of touch are these people to think that a paltry $1200 check lasts more than a week at best? It's like tossing a few quarters at people to placate them and keep the pitchforks at bay. The people who want to send out stimulus checks spend $1200 on a Friday night dinner.
It's incredibly insulting. I thought that with every check they sent. It was supposed to keep us all in comfort for months.
It's a continuation of what Naomi Klein masterfully documented in her book the Shock Doctrine (2005). The Washington Consensus and neoliberal establishment have created an alternate economy for themselves and wars are an essential part of it. The stock market will continue to rise, because the individuals and entities with real money and power are already protected from the downsides and positioned to profit handsomely. Oh, and it's also a fabulously convenient distraction for our governments to help us lose sight of what they've done to us the past 2 years... which was also another version of the 'Shock Doctrine' in action. For those who haven't read it, it's a hell of a book. Definitely worth reading.
Why not start with "War is a racket" by Smedley Butler? It's his argument she's using, but she needs 20 words for each of his.
We need everything made here in America and start opening more nuclear power plants. And the green new deal is dead. So we dont wake up to the sounds of explosions.
Inflation doesn’t include the cost of food (20-100% increase) or gas (more than doubled). The middle and lower classes are hurting a lot more than you think. On top of that taxes keep going up to pay teachers higher wages and bonuses for their ‘bravery’ during COVID.
The US needs to go on an austerity program, slash the size and scope of government, and bring all of the jobs back from China and overseas, close the borders and send all of the ‘refugees’ home ASAP, and get tough on crime. Of course the US also needs to shake up education, stop backing student loans and house loans, disolve the teachers unions and slash grants of all kinds.
Nice wish list.
Ron Paul is correct 99.7% of the time.
"So Russia invades Ukraine and stocks go UP.
Why? Because the hedge funds that rule the market care about one thing and one thing only, keeping the flow of free money coming from the Federal Reserve at any cost."
Alex needs to stick to pharma analysis. That statement makes zero sense. The Fed is far more likely to raise rates if the market is going up than if the market is crashing, which is what it was doing early in the day (DOW down over 800 points). Hedge funds making sure the markets don't crash means less free money (see cheap debt) coming from the Fed.
What happened today was markets were spooked by the initial reports and scale of the invasion. That sent the DOW down over 800 points and gold and oil soaring. Gold was up over $50 and oil up over $7 breaking the $100 per barrel mark before the opening bell rung and early after markets opened. But as the day progressed and markets were assured the US and Europe weren't going to actually escalate by sending actual troops, the spook cooled and the markets completely reversed. DOW, S&P500 and NASDAQ all ended up positive and oil and gold ended up negative.
You have two dynamics now at play. The Fed hinting at raising rates to curb inflation (good luck with that) and now a countervailing dynamic of war that threatens Europe, which typically would result in looser fiscal policy to finance the war effort or paper over economic impacts from it. Volatility is through the roof because uncertainty about which way this is going to go is through the roof. That's what this is about. Not hedge funds.
Russia set up base camp at Chernobyl, 4 shutdown reactors. But the spent fuel pools contain 33,000 medium size nuclear weapons, so they cannot be shelled or missiled or nuke there. Very strategic. I did the calcs that is my specialty beside technical stock trading.
Alex does not appear to have even a basic understanding of markets. He took a screen shot of US equity markets as some sort of mic drop.
USTs are the best barometer of inflation expectations and risk appetite. What did they do yesterday?
How about HY spreads? Euro stocks are more sensitive to all of this than US stocks, what did they do?
Fed funds are one way of tightening but there are many others. The fed is tightening.
The fed is committed to tightening and everyone knows it. Powell is doing a good job compared to the clown show during Trump when he did a complete 180 due to political pressure in a matter of a quarter.
Alex does a great job on vaccines, it detracts from his credibility when he runs his mouth on stuff he is obviously clueless about.
Um....UST's are highly manipulated by the Fed and their traditional inflation market signal is completely broken by Fed intervention. That's why rates have remained at historic lows despite historic asset price inflation.
The Fed is tightening???? Um, no. A decrease in QE is not "tightening" and in fact the Fed's balance sheet hit an all time high last week. The Fed continues to pour fuel on the inflationary fires, not tighten. So far all they've done is think about thinking about tightening. Powell has done nothing different thus far than he did under Trump. And, of course, anybody who knows anything knows they can't possibly tighten enough to put out the inflation fire now without crashing markets and sending the economy into recession, possibly a depression. That's what started to happen the last time they tried to tighten but couldn't even get more than 75 basis points in before having to reverse course. When/if they try again, the same thing will happen, though likely it will be an even more violent market reaction.
My eyes are rolling into the back of my head right now. I do not know what to tell you if you do not think the fed has begun tightening. I suppose you could look at fed fund futures but what fun is it using actual data when you just know it in your bones amiright?
LOL "if anybody who knows anything" knows it then it is already fully priced into the market and will not happen. The surest bet is to the bet against the guy who thinks he has things all figured out.
Your eyes are rolling into the back of your head....finding the empty space behind them. Jawboning, speculative futures, is not the Fed tightening. The Fed is empirically not tightening. Still, you'll talk about data but apparently have no idea what useful data actually is.
Is fed loosening the reason why mortgage rates are the highest they have been since 2019?
How can you declare they're almost never right and that we have no way to know if they are in the same breath?
If we can't know then we can't say they're almost never right....or wrong for that matter.
There are many days, maybe even most days, where even the pro's are doing little more than speculating at the catalysts behind the market moves and outcomes for that day. They're looking for correlations but we know that's not necessarily the same thing as causation. But days like today aren't that difficult to know with great certainty what caused the great uncertainty that led to the great volatility. It wasn't hedge funds trying to keep the presses running hot.....today.
"and doing nothing is what this Fed does best"
You calling printing 1/3 of all dollars in the world in one year nothing?
Excellent point. But re: NOTHING, NOTHING is what goverNMEnts do best, and ought to do more of.
I am a senior living on a fixed income. I see the death of me in this situation. Horrible horrible administration and president. Worst in my lifetime.
That can't be. He's the bestest. 81 million people told me so.
I am unapologetic laissez faire capitalist.
What we are in is not even remotely capitalism. It is a state run system run by a relatively small circle of powerful cliques.
The Fed has always been abused by the powerful. Starting on Day 1 in 1913.
But it is now so overt and on such a large scale that the most affluent are arrogating $trilliins - yes $trillions in the form of near zero cost debt, and using that debt to buy up the country. Central bank policy like this is grossly redistributive - away from most of society and toward the ultra affluent.
Simultaneously, the government can spend without the legislative burden of paying for it. It simply comes at a cost to everyone in the form of lost purchasing power (inflation).
"What we are in is not even remotely capitalism. It is a state run system run by a relatively small circle of powerful cliques. "
Exactly. The neomercantilist orgy of exploitation and corruption that is Wall Street is what Adam Smith wrote "Wealth of Nations " to rebuke.
Maybe you should stick to vax chat since it is clear that your understanding of markets is quite simplistic and confused.
I’d love to hear your perspective. Serious q.
Markets are complicated. Correlation is not causation.
(((Hedge funds))) are not that big of deal in the markets. Those that speak of them conspiratorially probably don't know much about them.
The straight line from Russia invading Ukraine to inflation is not immediately obvious. It is just as likely to be deflationary as inflationary.
If it is so obvious that the vax guy gets it then it is obvious to the fed too which means they are MORE likely to raise rates.
The fed tightens in other ways besides interbank rates. They are still tightening (seen mortgage rates lately?)
etc
etc
TLDR: Shit is complicated, fade the person who has an easy explanation.
Thank you. I agree - explaining the markets with one brush stroke is like explaining the rise and fall in COVID cases through the lens of mask mandates.
Thousands of factors in play - none linear. Intertwined.
Get out of the stock market and put your money into physical silver or gold backed funds, be sure to avoid the buy back rate clauses.
"physical silver" LOL
why is that funny?
It is a religion not an investment.
I could not make it through all of this but if you think inflation increases wealth you might want to reassess your understanding of inflation and the implications for cost of capital.
Inflation ( that is, creation of money out of nothing OFTEN resulting in increased costs) DOES increase wealth. Not of the masses, but of Wall St and those who get their hands on those fiat dollars first. For the rest of us, inflation is a hidden tax. $15?hr? So now that most new workers have it, $15 is the new $10. As I have repeatedly said over the years, one day, we may all be millionaires, but to what avail if a loaf of bread costs half of that?
The value of any asset is the present value of all future cash flows. Inflation increases discount rates which decreases present value. The further out the cash flow the more sensitive the underlying asset is to discount rates. The reason markets have been selling off YTD is due to inflation expectations and the implications for discount rates.
This is 101 level stuff.
This was a short-covering event for SPX. All the Wall Street types were concerned about what might happen - would President Klain decide to do something really nutty, like a winter war in Russia?
Turns out - no colossal winter war blunder. It really is just a Wag-the-Dog event. Policy became clear: "We're gonna blame inflation & shortages on PUTIN!!" So, the shorts cover, and prices rally accordingly.
May be correct about the Fed too. "Can't raise rates during wartime! Americans must sacrifice the value of their money for Democracy in Ukraine!" I'm sure the policy will all depend on the polling.
Finally, someone got it right. Thx for pointing out the short-covering activity.
Gee, it almost feels like they want the US economy to crash and burn...oh yeah, that's cuz they do! :(
#SecureUSASouthernBorder
#LetsGoBrandon
Once again, Main Street suffers, while Wall Street profits. 😠
This isn't a failure, it's a feature. Look at Biden's Fed nominees and tell me they care about the little guy. They're actively trying to destroy the little guy. At least we live in interesting times.
Watch the weapons sales skyrocket to Europe. Spending is GOING UP, UP, UP!
War is BIG Business.
What I want to understand is WHY do Americans need to suffer--as El Demento says--so we can support a democracy in a country that is not democratic?
Don't get me wrong: I feel badly for Ukrainians who will suffer badly from the invasion.
Here's another mystery: WHY does the US continue to import oil from Russia? Why do these imports continue when the US has lots of oil & natural gas--and El Demento needs only restart the drilling?
I guess I need to ask the dopey little girl from Westchester and the mouthy Swedish brat.
I shorted every index last evening. At noon I looked like a hero. I went to the dentist and by the time I got done I had lost $1000. I took it in stride though. Because in the end, nothing can stop the market crash that is coming. Absolutely nothing.
Enjoy the squeeze, new highs in 3 months
Opposing platforms…
Print, baby Print…
…versus Drill Baby Drill
Lads, stock up on wheelbarrows while you can They'll be needed to pay for bread soon.
I have 4 and cash, and 10 cords of oak, so I can decide what to burn for heat
But remember, the number one priority of the Fed is to keep the current administration in power.
Virtually all of the billionaire globalists who are now waging their War on Humanity, to effect massive depopulation and to turn the rest of us into their slaves, made their money by leveraging government coercion in one way or another - either by directly connecting to the government money teat, by relying on sham government "regulation" and bogus patents backed by stables of patent attorneys to eliminate competition, or by playing the Fed-supported markets.
None of this would have been possible without the massive government counterfeiting operation that's been going on for 100 years or more, but which has been radically accelerating since 1971 when Nixon, under arch-globalist Kissinger's influence, closed the Fed's gold and silver windows for good. Over the last 18 months or so, the US money supply has been roughly doubled, with the lion's share of that going to support these bubble markets, but more of it than in past years has been trickling down into price inflation which is finally starting to be seen as a serious problem by the man in the street.
All fiat currencies go to 0, and the US$ has already lost 99% of its value since 1913 when the Fed was created, ostensibly just to act as a liquidity backstop and a clearinghouse for the private banks.
This Ponzi scheme really got going in the late 1970s, and when the man in the street caught wise and started exchanging his rapidly depreciating currency for Krugerrands, something had to be done to nip that comeuppance to the globalists in the bud. Enter new Fed head Paul Volcker, who abruptly raised interest rates to 15-20%, torpedoing the economy, but bringing the gold price down from it's peak of $800/ounce to about $400 an ounce, where it persisted for a couple of decades.
Meanwhile, inflation continued on it's merry way, but has been disguised since 1980 by massive doctoring of the two official measures of inflation: the consumer-oriented CPI, and the Fed's preferred measure, the PCE deflator.
Actual inflation since then, basis the undoctored 1980 CPI, which is tracked from month to month at economist John Williams's ShadowStats website using government data, has averaged 10% a year since 1980, and has now reached 16% and continuing to climb, as the second of the two charts on this page shows: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts.
Thus, every dollar stolen from your paycheck in 1980 and ostensibly added to your Social Security account, not only hasn't, like conservative savings, been put out at interest so that it multiplies over time: if you retire now, that dollar, which you haven't had the use of for 40 years, is now worth the 1980 equivalent of about 5 cents.
The only group in this country whose incomes have more or less kept up with actual inflation are those in the top 10% by income: the inflation adjusted median income in the US since 1980 is now only a fraction of what it was, in spite of wage and salary increases and nominal COLA adjustments.
The parasitical rich and upper management classes (the "virtuals") have sucked the lifeblood out of the middle class and the working classes, and as the bubble markets begin, finally, to collapse, money coming out of those markets is jacking up consumer prices, even as the supply is being constricted by socialist regulation and central planning in response to manufactured crises like the COVID and global warming scams, and manufactured wars.
Also before the 2014 Crimean vote, senior USA people like John Kerry and John McCain visited the Ukraine and told the government armed , angry very right people should be allowed protest and this was against a democratically elected government.
Even at home in the USA no one would have tolerated protest like this. They would have been met with rubber bullets at a minimum.
But just like Antfia and BLM they are peaceful protests.
Justin Trudeau supports the tyrannical leaders in the Ukraine and is one against the peaceful ones at one. 5M + Canadians need to sign and simultaneously email the GG and use it to tell the Canadian GG to dissolve the government. They want central bank digital currency no cash, so Canada can be like China and have a social credit system. He said he like Chinese dictatorship and we can see he was to be a dictator of Canada.
All countries who want to control all money need to be removed now, as they don't work for the people they want the people enslaved.
In 2014 85-90% Crimea voted to leave Ukraine. They did not want to be part of country with a tyrannical government installed by the west. These 2 annexed provinces feel the same. I would not be surprised most of Ukraine would rather have prosperity with Putin, that the crap the government installed by the west gave them before 2014.
Want to see the real effect of inflation on real people before all the number massaging that goes into todays reported CPI? Go to http://www.shadowstats.com . 7% headline would be 11% based on 1990 method of calculation and 15% if done by the 1980 methodology. You can’t eat hedonic adjustments.
You carry a supercomputer in your pocket and can purchase anything you want without leaving your home. Hedonic adjustments have no hope for accounting for these. Ex Healthcare and education there has been massive deflation not inflation since the 1990s.
Why is Western Europe worried about energy from Russia? They still have wind and solar right?
Hahahahaha... no.
Hydro, nuclear and coal and gas. Wind and solar is useless except very localised (solar in Spain is a great idea seeing they have summer all year around as compared to here north of the 60th parallell).
Not to mention that China owns a lot of interest in windturbines in Europe.
Sweden used to be self-sufficient on electricity (lots and lots of hydro big and small, nuclear - we have plenty of uranium ore). This was before we became a slave-state in the EUSSR of course. Unfortunately, our socialist democratic governement behaves like your achetypical retarded hick coming to the Big City for the first time and being taken on a ride by everyone he meets. Also they rather make deals with greens, feminazis, LGBTP-crowd, and moslems than put own people and nation first.
nope, energy-dependent on opec+
Yep, Europeans, full of gas and butt lights to see where they are goin’…
The inflation rate is already well into double digits. The CPI ( aka CP Lie) has been modified several times since the 70s to make the situation look better. But you are right, this Ukraine situation will make inflation worse. Fed tightening needs to happen no matter what and it should have happened a long time ago. I’m a manufacturer and our PPI was at about 7% when I was seeing double digit material cost increases nearly a year ago.
Here's the real reason IMO the feds don't want to raise the rate. Just a few years ago, the interest alone on the federal debt was 200 billion a year. Now the federal debt is 29 trillion plus. Imagine what would happen if interest rates went up. The federal interest payments on the debt would skyrocket even more and consume much of the federal budget. We're becoming Greece...
With $30T debt @ 3% interest, that's ~$1T annually in interest alone. Beyond sickening
https://rumble.com/vvm7rj-why-the-dems-are-afraid-of-crypto-ep.-110.html
The economy has always been a sham run by the wealthy who have no actual skills to produce a single fucking thing besides gambling on other people's business.
Banks are getting free money at 0% interest. They can loan as much money as they want because it’s free! Has that credit card company lowered your interest rate to 3or4%? No, it’s still 12-28%. There’s a lot stock being purchased on margin. If the market really crashes then those margin calls start a coming. That accelerates the selling and the losses for you and the big hedge funds. The markets should have dropped 40-50% as soon as Hiden was elected. These guys know he’s an idiot. It didn’t because of the free money.
I like your political coverage but this is embarrassingly ignorant.
Hedge funds have no direct influence on Federal Reserve's monetary policies, so they don't "keep the flow of free money coming" (whatever that means).
The largest owner of stocks are owned by individuals via mutual funds and ETFs run by Blackrock/Vanguard. The speculative hedge funds (who manages money for high net-worth individuals, endowment funds, etc.) are often "long-short" and are supposed to perform well during large drawdowns, hence the word "hedge" in their names. Many of them do not benefit from a bull market.
hedge funds don't hedge anything .. lol. out of touch
long-short positions reduces beta (i.e. market exposure). nice try.
The issue in the Ukraine is that there were embedded neo nazi groups running bio labs. That is what Putin is going after, and Zelinsky is aligned with Putin to get those neo nazi bio labs out. The news is completely wrong on all of this. https://lettersfromvienna.substack.com/p/why-are-there-nazis-in-the-ukraine?utm_source=url
but Biden is allied with the neo nazis
That seems to be the case from what I am reading. It's all so covert. Putin seems to be doing what he has to do to shut them down. And Zelinsky seems to be aligned with Putin behind the scenes. I do not think Putin cares about US sanctions.
Brandon and Granny is thanking Pootie bigtime for the distraction. May they all rot in hell.
It's the end of the world how we know it and I feel fi... no, like turning Japanese, I feel like turning Japanese, I really think so. So...goodbye yellow brick road.
...ah, all those gold bricks leading to Oz...
Interestingly, Dick Morris points out that by causing oil prices to rise so much Biden is financing
Putin's war effort in Ukraine. Did you also notice that Biden and Putin are 5 letter words? Take the n off and both are four letter words. Bide and Puti.
The Fed will raise rates 25bp and stop buying bonds in mid-March.
Biden has purposely tried to increase the price of oil. The Fed can’t do anything about that.
Raise the interest rate to fight inflation. Not going to happen. Higher interest rates would take a chunk out of the Green New Deal expenditures that aren't working out so well because a much larger portion of the Fed expenditures would go to pay for higher interest rates on the $30T of debt we have so wisely created! All of this is theatre! Bad theatre that is! Sides! Raising interest rates will soon be.....whispering across the podium...RACIST!
Of course, those are the top criminals of the so named "western democracy"... they are the ultimate neo nazi that rule everything.
Financial Markets are completely rigged, if Sec was doing his job in the last 30 years, they could have deleted Morgan, Goldman and all of their "children"... You could have built a couple of max security prisons in that time, to fit them all...
The peculiarity of Wall Streets is that they can play with dems or cons, no problems! Or in other words they put the money on both so they're sure to win...! Cons legislators and Demo legislators have permitted all kind of financial products without denying a single one to this Ponzi Teams... Derivatives and Options are the top of the financial shit.
Leman crash? Why? Does any american matters of Leman crash now?? Don't think so..
They even allowed videogamers and kids to play in the markets too, through various platform, one for all: Robin hood one!! And they even allowed them to be quoted!!!
I mean, do you really want to change last 2 years of dictatorships in the west? So take them all and and jail them , take all of their money and distributed to everyone. This guys are so nazi and arrogant, that even go to TV shows/news and talk about inequality... poor men and women... saying that it has gown too much... What a SQUALID show is western society showing around the world.
Instead, you did as you did with rests of Twin Towers, you hided them into the ocean... who knows, may be someone could have checked if they really melt or could have find clear traces of powerful WESTERN explosives...
Have fun with neo nazi at home
This is not accurate, the market had already priced in a Russian invasion, this was just a reversal, especially since its clear US/NATO are coming together. Also inflation only partly due to low interest rates, more has to do with retiring baby boomers/unexpected results of pandemic
Biden told Puten it’s ok to invade because then he can tell Powell to halt rate hikes and blame economic consequences on Putin. The “sanctions” are a smoke screen, Wall Street gets richer along with Pelosi and all the other elite cronies. Everybody else can eat the proverbial cake and drone on about “saving democracy”. Après moi, le déluge….
Brandon has put all his chips on blue and yellow, and Putin is going to roll him in the first real-life U.S.-Russian toe-to-toe and he is going to humiliated further, completely owned. Doing Ukraine was planned as a Hail Mary pass and he is going to get sacked on his own 1-yard line. Hey isn't Janet Yellen of "Ukrainian" descent?
You can blame Wall Street, but the people that really don’t want interest rates to go up are in the White House and the Capital.
The stock market often has little sense of reality. As Paul Samuelson said it has predicted nine of the last five recessions.
Russia and so by proxy Trump caused gas prices to escalate and result in hyper inflation. That will be the DNCNN repeat and idiot Amerikans will believe it.