What did it for me was IHME model. As someone who does health data analytics, I followed their model every day from the start. The projections were alarming. But one day, in early April 2020, I opened it up and the projected death toll was a 1/3rd of the day before. Now I get assumptions change, but that was pretty dramatic. Worse, Dr. B…
What did it for me was IHME model. As someone who does health data analytics, I followed their model every day from the start. The projections were alarming. But one day, in early April 2020, I opened it up and the projected death toll was a 1/3rd of the day before. Now I get assumptions change, but that was pretty dramatic. Worse, Dr. Birx stated that was one of the models they followed closely for recommendations. At that point, I assumed they had no idea what they were doing.
The trick as you apparently discovered is trying to find accurate data and to a great extent the books were cooked by our own government. While I clearly don't agree with Berenson on many things I started looking at the data that he was presenting early on and looked for collaboration from other sources. I knew that I was on the right track when many of those sources started to be shut down and silenced. The good things about time is that truth regarding any matter cannot be put in the dark forever and we are now seeing the floodgates open based on the diligent efforts by others. I applaud them all.
You don't need any data when dealing with the government or any private sector regulated by government to see when somethings not right precisely because you cant trust their data. What you can trust is that humans act in their own self interests and for pharmaceutical executives that means selling their products regardless of effectiveness or risk and minimizing liability. For government that means acquiring what's needed to get reelected to stay in power so you have more years to monetize your position via political favors.
When playing poker you dont play the cards, you play the player. Same is how you deal with the Federal Government leaders and employees. You know the majority are not going to act ethically so watch what they do, how they respond. The initial red flags for covid for everyone should have been how hard they marketed covid fear to the public. There's no way we could have known initially that they were lying about its lethality but within 2-4 weeks it should have been obvious to most that what they were selling us was not matching up with our own experiences. It was 6 months before I indirectly knew anyone who got covid. The way they were marketing it everyone should have directly known several people who got covid within the first 30 days.
Its not as if pre covid our Federal government had a reputation for being truthful and reliable so why did so many just believe the government without questioning it?
When I observed the model was always predicting things that never happened and that they had data to refine the model but it remained wrong, my faith ended. Whatever assumptions were embedded were clearly wrong. Did they ever improve?
What did it for me was IHME model. As someone who does health data analytics, I followed their model every day from the start. The projections were alarming. But one day, in early April 2020, I opened it up and the projected death toll was a 1/3rd of the day before. Now I get assumptions change, but that was pretty dramatic. Worse, Dr. Birx stated that was one of the models they followed closely for recommendations. At that point, I assumed they had no idea what they were doing.
The trick as you apparently discovered is trying to find accurate data and to a great extent the books were cooked by our own government. While I clearly don't agree with Berenson on many things I started looking at the data that he was presenting early on and looked for collaboration from other sources. I knew that I was on the right track when many of those sources started to be shut down and silenced. The good things about time is that truth regarding any matter cannot be put in the dark forever and we are now seeing the floodgates open based on the diligent efforts by others. I applaud them all.
You don't need any data when dealing with the government or any private sector regulated by government to see when somethings not right precisely because you cant trust their data. What you can trust is that humans act in their own self interests and for pharmaceutical executives that means selling their products regardless of effectiveness or risk and minimizing liability. For government that means acquiring what's needed to get reelected to stay in power so you have more years to monetize your position via political favors.
When playing poker you dont play the cards, you play the player. Same is how you deal with the Federal Government leaders and employees. You know the majority are not going to act ethically so watch what they do, how they respond. The initial red flags for covid for everyone should have been how hard they marketed covid fear to the public. There's no way we could have known initially that they were lying about its lethality but within 2-4 weeks it should have been obvious to most that what they were selling us was not matching up with our own experiences. It was 6 months before I indirectly knew anyone who got covid. The way they were marketing it everyone should have directly known several people who got covid within the first 30 days.
Its not as if pre covid our Federal government had a reputation for being truthful and reliable so why did so many just believe the government without questioning it?
When I observed the model was always predicting things that never happened and that they had data to refine the model but it remained wrong, my faith ended. Whatever assumptions were embedded were clearly wrong. Did they ever improve?
Exactly