Something is rotten in Denmark.

And Australia.

And Israel.

Where nearly 1 percent of the entire population just tested positive for Covid.

Not in a month. Or a week. In one day.

You read that right.

On Saturday, Israel had 84,000 new infections, the equivalent of almost 3 million in the United States. Infections in Israel have risen unthinkably fast since late December. They’re are up 100-fold in one month, driven by the collapse of booster protection and the arrival of the Omicron variant.

Israel is not alone. Denmark reported 42,000 cases yesterday, equal to almost 2.5 million in the United States. France, the second-largest country in Europe, reported the American equivalent of about 12 million new infections in the last week. Australia had a tremendous surge in cases earlier this month, though it seems to be subsiding for now.

Daily new infections in Israel:

These countries have very different population demographics and previous exposure to Covid. They even have very different weather; it is summer in Australia.

What do they share, then?

Incredibly high Covid vaccination rates, mostly with the mRNA vaccines. Israel is among the world’s most vaccinated countries. More than 90 percent of Israeli adults have been vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Almost 80 percent have received a booster dose, and several hundred thousand have gotten a fourth.

Yet Israel had more coronavirus infections in the last week than in all of 2020, before it began mass mRNA Covid vaccinations.

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Omicron is much milder than Delta or the original coronavirus. So the data from South Africa - which was the first country where Omicron spread quickly - seemed to show.

But South Africa is quite lightly vaccinated. The more recent data from the highly vaccinated countries has not been as promising. Yes, Omicron is milder.

Even so, hospitalizations and deaths are spiking in countries like Israel and Denmark. In Israel, the number of severely ill patients has risen eightfold this month, and almost fourfold in the last two weeks - even though the true spike in infections has come only in the last few days, and hospitalizations typically lag infections. In Australia, deaths are up tenfold since in the last four weeks, although from a low base.

Daily new serious cases in Israel:

In part the rise has come because Omicron infections have reached such stunningly high levels that even a relatively low risk can lead to a significant number of deaths. And yes, many Omicron hospitalizations are incidental - they are people in the hospital for other reasons who just happen to test positive for Omicron.

But other factors may be at play too. Here are four facts:

1: Both the within-country and the between-country data show that people who are vaccinated but not boosted are at higher risk of Omicron infection than the unvaccinated.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

2: Thus vaccines will actually make hospitalization or death from Omicron MORE likely unless they somehow protect against serious outcomes from Covid infections more than they increase the odds of infection. That’s simple math.

At this point we have no way of knowing how those two factors interact. In other words, we do not know if Omicron is more dangerous to the unvaccinated than the vaccinated (putting aside any vaccine side effects).

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

3: It is unclear whether the vaccines interfere with the development of long-term post-infection immunity in people who are infected with Omicron.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

4: It is clear that a third vaccine dose temporarily reduces the risk of serious illness or death from Omicron.

But it is unclear how long that protection will last, and whether when it ends people who have received a third dose will be less or more vulnerable than those who are unvaccinated or have received two doses.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

Put these four facts together and it is clear that to encourage booster shots for anyone - including the elderly - at this point is reckless, bordering on criminal.

I have not used language like this before. I did not discourage older people from the primary vaccination series. But the facts have changed and they continue to change, and not to face this reality is incredibly dangerous.

mRNA Covid vaccinations and boosters need to stop worldwide while we figure out what is happening. Not next week. Not tomorrow.

Today.

Unreported Truths

AN URGENT WARNING