They are now admitting the "conspiracy theory" about the exercise, which explains why it was a PAT call sign - it was a continuity of government exercise which would be a PAT if it were real. And that explains why it was in DC, although not why a (relatively) inexperienced pilot was involved.
Here is the concern. Since Obama, they have restricted highering to meet DEI objectives. THen they lost the lawsuit for being discriminatory based on race, so no one was hired. That is why we have shortages. Both sides cant get a hire. Team merit vs team equity
And one more comment: there should never be any relevance as to the skin color or gender in cases like this, but with DIE and affirmative action having been so prevalent for a decade in one case and six decades in another, it immediately comes to mind whether or not it is at all fair. When only picking based on qualifications it should never come up. It is insidious and corrosive in a society.
Sadly I knew someone on the flight and the families (as always) deserve to know both the cause and how it will be prevented going forward. The letter above shows how (as Trump said) this was preventable if any one of a number of things had changed.
“…was preventable if any one of a number of things had changed.” That’s almost always the case for aircraft accidents. I think the magic number is three.
I am curious as to why this was a PAT 2-5 call sign on the helicopter given what I understand that call sign to mean. I haven't seen an explanation as to why what usually means this: "PAT means priority air transport and is a designation for a cargo of national importance or special persons on board" was used in this case.
Excellent analysis. As a former Blackhawk pilot, I can attest to the accuracy of this discussion. Here’s another analysis by Juan Brown on his YouTube channel, Blancolirio:
Just watched Brown's youtube video that you linked to. Most amazing fact pointed out if the presentation was accurate: the helo is seen on Brown's screen as at the required 200 foot altitude until just moments before the crash, when it inexplicably rose in altitude to 400 feet to match the regional jet which was descending to 400 feet during its landing pattern. This video leaves you scratching your head. There is no indication as to why the helo pilot did that in terms of the audio between the helo and the ATC.
My husband is a commercial (and former military) pilot. He has flown into Reagan. His first comment was, "I'm not surprised. It was an accident waiting to happen."
I think this is excellent and jibes with my earlier comments copied below. I also would add that concealing the fact that the Blackhawk pilot was a woman is counterproductive. I wondered why we never heard her responses to the ATC and now I think because it would have been obvious that it was a female pilot. I read in NPR that her family doesn't want her name released which I think is more BS. Having said that, I think the ATC could have avoided this by giving specific instructions on heading, altitude, and/or speed.
There has been a shortage of controllers for decades and the DEI effort, especially if they passed over qualified people, is likely to not have helped. It doesn't sound like this was an issue of an underqualified person but rather an overburdened person in a difficult environment. In a previous life, I got to tour various ATC facilities in the Northeast while working for a Member of Congress. At the time, I toured the JFK tower, a TRACON, the Islip NY Tower, and the Oceanic ATC facility. When I was in the JFK tower in the late 90s, there was one controller and that is a busier airport than DCA. They taught me how to read the radar screen and what various things meant. Because I am nerdy, when I used to fly United, I would listen to the ATC channel (not sure if they still have that). My benign theory is that the helicopter pilot's visual contact was with the plane taking off and not the one landing. So the big mistake is that the controller should have specifically ordered the helicopter pilot onto a course to avoid the Jet and/or instructed him to reduce speed. Watching the replay of the radar and sound, it looks like the Blackhawk (PAT25) makes a sharp turn just as the plane taking off emerges on radar (JZA789). PAT25 is at 300 feet at this point. PAT 25 is warned that there is traffic at 1200 feet (JIA 5342) by the Wilson bridge, the CRJ on final approach. PAT drops below 300 feet. At this point the two aircraft are heading straight for each other. The CRJ is descending the whole time 700, 600, 500 as PAT 25 rapidly closes in still somewhere between 200 and 300 feet. I think it is safe to say the CRJ never saw the helicopter because PAT 25 was below it the whole time until they collided. An order to the PAT to reduce speed and establish a heading of 90 degrees due east could have avoided this but it had to be done at the time the controller was instead asking if PAT 25 saw the Jet. The two planes are almost on top of each other in terms of distance and vertical separation. At the time he asks, they are well less than a mile apart and 200 feet or less apart vertically with the plane descending on approach to the level the helicopter is at. As an aside, I remember from my visit that they like to keep aircraft a thousand feet apart vertically. The CRJ is probably going around 150 miles an hour at this point and the PAT seems to be moving at similar speed. They are closing are at 400 feet per second or more. There was no time left to spot the CRJ at this point and take action. I have seen reports that the PAT may not have been aware of the runway change of the CRJ. That could have contributed as well. If PAT though CRJ was still on approach to Runway 1, then it would be well out of its path if it stayed on the east side of the river. Anyway, my point is there were errors made and perhaps DEI played a role if the tower/ATC was not staffed up. I say tower/ATC because the tower doesn't control the entire airspace. If I remember correctly, the TRACON controls things up until final approach or something like that. The TRACON is at Dulles I believe for this area so these people are not even in the tower or nearby. This is a terrible tragedy, I would not have led with DEI. The airspace is so crazy around DC with helicopters flying all over the place. One final thing, I would love to see Hegseth investigate whether officers are using helos instead of driving places unnecessarily. They say this was a training missing but I think if something is not a combat mission, it is called a training mission often.
Seems to line up with the facts as they have been presented so far. My only additional comment is that failing to hire competent ATC's due to skin color, most assuredly contributed to the lack of personnel in the tower that night. That's not political that is cause and effect. I was not aware that the Captain of the Helo was a female and that the flight was erratic. I will leave that where it is, but the inference is obvious.
As Juan Brown pointed out, lateral erratic flight by the helo would have been of no consequence had it maintained its required ceiling of 200 feet. Why on earth did the helo climb to 400 feet?
Incompetence on the part of the pilot of the Blackhawk. Could be for lots of reasons but generally boils down to this: In a highly populated area at night there is a lack of a visible horizon at low altitudes. The visual effect is to think you are lower than you are and to climb until "things look right". The proper response is to check the altimeter to confirm your altitude. I've not flown a helo but in a fixed wing it is very easy to trade forward speed to altitude and one can jump up a couple hundred feet in a very few seconds simply by pulling back on the yoke/stick. My guess is that you can do the same thing in a helo.
This is the best and most detailed summary from an expert perspective. Night Vision Goggles (NVGs) do not allow peripheral vision that would have allowed the pilot or copilot to visually spot the plane in clear night time conditions.
They also are limited on depth perception. I worked as a consultant on a project to develop a flat panel display that added 3D effects to the display. It was a computational hog that overheated the first design to the point of melting down the unit. I was hired to stop it from do that. My first iteration failed. Got got it right on the second.
I am curious as to why this was a PAT 2-5 call sign on the helicopter given what I understand that call sign to mean. I haven't seen an explanation as to why what usually means this: "PAT means priority air transport and is a designation for a cargo of national importance or special persons on board" was used.
Alex - This is a perfect example of why Unreported Truths is a great value. Not only do we get your expertise but the knowledge and experience of your readers. My guess is that this veteran will be proven correct when the NTSB eventually issues its report.
I simply cannot move beyond the fact that helo training exercises are flown across ACTIVE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE RUNWAYS in D.C.. Who thought that was a good idea? And yet, this has obviously gone on for decades. I can't imagine, for example, on final approach at DFW watching aircraft of any kind traveling across our flight path. That alone would make the news in Dallas as a near miss. As one pilot noted in the comments, this was an accident waiting to happen. Yes, Trump is pissed. He is the Commander In Chief and his military (and his ATC) were largely at fault here. I hope they learn from this tragedy.
Is there any chance (I have no idea if this is even possible, just asking cuz of the multiple screw-ups by whoever on the helo and the AA plane's highly visual slow and steady descent) that this was an intentional collision?
The AA plane was flying at about 150 knots at the time of the collision. The helo was probably going half as fast. In the video that showed the crash AA was flying directly towards the camera from a couple of miles away and appeared slow. The helo was traveling across the field of view and appeared fast. This was not an intentional collision.
I served in the Marine Corps from 1970-to 1972, two year enlistment, guaranteed Viet Nam. Had orders West Pac Ground Forces, orders canceled due to Nixon group withdrawal. Ended up in Recon Batallion. Flew in a lot of helicopters and the crews were excellent. I only had a few months left and we were having a "Dod and Pony " show for some young men from West Point. I was asked if I wanted to do some repelling or water insertions and I told them I was too short, meaning a short time to go. The show went on and unfortunately when they were doing the water drops, usually 10 to 15 feet above the ocean, the co-pilot radioed back to the crew chief in back they would drop around here and that they were circling again before the drop, but the transmission was cut short. They were eighty feet in the air and the co-pilot had to jump out of his seat and tackle the last guy going out. One Marine broke his back hitting a sand bar and two were killed. It is so hard to hear inside a chopper, frequently screaming at one another. Maybe they are quieter, over 50 years ago, and I know this may not have anything to do about what took place last night. The information put forth by the former pilot really gives you a strong reminder it's a team effort to bring these aircraft in safely. Prayers for the families of those lost in this what seems to have been a preventable accident.
Excellent summary, totally apolitical. But it actually makes me wonder a bit more that Trump may have been correct to raise DEI concerns.
They are now admitting the "conspiracy theory" about the exercise, which explains why it was a PAT call sign - it was a continuity of government exercise which would be a PAT if it were real. And that explains why it was in DC, although not why a (relatively) inexperienced pilot was involved.
Here is the concern. Since Obama, they have restricted highering to meet DEI objectives. THen they lost the lawsuit for being discriminatory based on race, so no one was hired. That is why we have shortages. Both sides cant get a hire. Team merit vs team equity
Great summary, balance and covering a lot of possibilities.
And one more comment: there should never be any relevance as to the skin color or gender in cases like this, but with DIE and affirmative action having been so prevalent for a decade in one case and six decades in another, it immediately comes to mind whether or not it is at all fair. When only picking based on qualifications it should never come up. It is insidious and corrosive in a society.
And that should've said "balanced". 😀
Sadly I knew someone on the flight and the families (as always) deserve to know both the cause and how it will be prevented going forward. The letter above shows how (as Trump said) this was preventable if any one of a number of things had changed.
I'm very sorry for your loss.
“…was preventable if any one of a number of things had changed.” That’s almost always the case for aircraft accidents. I think the magic number is three.
I am curious as to why this was a PAT 2-5 call sign on the helicopter given what I understand that call sign to mean. I haven't seen an explanation as to why what usually means this: "PAT means priority air transport and is a designation for a cargo of national importance or special persons on board" was used in this case.
And now we know why it was a PAT call sign - it was a continuity of government exercise.
What does "continuity of government exercise" mean?
1. Sounds like there is a potential “DEI” issue here
2. Sounds like A LOT of “wrong things happening at the same time” occurred.
Incompetence is becoming an all too convenient excuse.
If this was incompetence, the helo pilot with their life. Not exactly a "convenient excuse."
Excellent analysis. As a former Blackhawk pilot, I can attest to the accuracy of this discussion. Here’s another analysis by Juan Brown on his YouTube channel, Blancolirio:
https://youtu.be/_3gD_lnBNu0?si=T856k1dtsQScWYPG
Just watched Brown's youtube video that you linked to. Most amazing fact pointed out if the presentation was accurate: the helo is seen on Brown's screen as at the required 200 foot altitude until just moments before the crash, when it inexplicably rose in altitude to 400 feet to match the regional jet which was descending to 400 feet during its landing pattern. This video leaves you scratching your head. There is no indication as to why the helo pilot did that in terms of the audio between the helo and the ATC.
If only the news were generally reported in this fashion.
My husband is a commercial (and former military) pilot. He has flown into Reagan. His first comment was, "I'm not surprised. It was an accident waiting to happen."
I think this is excellent and jibes with my earlier comments copied below. I also would add that concealing the fact that the Blackhawk pilot was a woman is counterproductive. I wondered why we never heard her responses to the ATC and now I think because it would have been obvious that it was a female pilot. I read in NPR that her family doesn't want her name released which I think is more BS. Having said that, I think the ATC could have avoided this by giving specific instructions on heading, altitude, and/or speed.
There has been a shortage of controllers for decades and the DEI effort, especially if they passed over qualified people, is likely to not have helped. It doesn't sound like this was an issue of an underqualified person but rather an overburdened person in a difficult environment. In a previous life, I got to tour various ATC facilities in the Northeast while working for a Member of Congress. At the time, I toured the JFK tower, a TRACON, the Islip NY Tower, and the Oceanic ATC facility. When I was in the JFK tower in the late 90s, there was one controller and that is a busier airport than DCA. They taught me how to read the radar screen and what various things meant. Because I am nerdy, when I used to fly United, I would listen to the ATC channel (not sure if they still have that). My benign theory is that the helicopter pilot's visual contact was with the plane taking off and not the one landing. So the big mistake is that the controller should have specifically ordered the helicopter pilot onto a course to avoid the Jet and/or instructed him to reduce speed. Watching the replay of the radar and sound, it looks like the Blackhawk (PAT25) makes a sharp turn just as the plane taking off emerges on radar (JZA789). PAT25 is at 300 feet at this point. PAT 25 is warned that there is traffic at 1200 feet (JIA 5342) by the Wilson bridge, the CRJ on final approach. PAT drops below 300 feet. At this point the two aircraft are heading straight for each other. The CRJ is descending the whole time 700, 600, 500 as PAT 25 rapidly closes in still somewhere between 200 and 300 feet. I think it is safe to say the CRJ never saw the helicopter because PAT 25 was below it the whole time until they collided. An order to the PAT to reduce speed and establish a heading of 90 degrees due east could have avoided this but it had to be done at the time the controller was instead asking if PAT 25 saw the Jet. The two planes are almost on top of each other in terms of distance and vertical separation. At the time he asks, they are well less than a mile apart and 200 feet or less apart vertically with the plane descending on approach to the level the helicopter is at. As an aside, I remember from my visit that they like to keep aircraft a thousand feet apart vertically. The CRJ is probably going around 150 miles an hour at this point and the PAT seems to be moving at similar speed. They are closing are at 400 feet per second or more. There was no time left to spot the CRJ at this point and take action. I have seen reports that the PAT may not have been aware of the runway change of the CRJ. That could have contributed as well. If PAT though CRJ was still on approach to Runway 1, then it would be well out of its path if it stayed on the east side of the river. Anyway, my point is there were errors made and perhaps DEI played a role if the tower/ATC was not staffed up. I say tower/ATC because the tower doesn't control the entire airspace. If I remember correctly, the TRACON controls things up until final approach or something like that. The TRACON is at Dulles I believe for this area so these people are not even in the tower or nearby. This is a terrible tragedy, I would not have led with DEI. The airspace is so crazy around DC with helicopters flying all over the place. One final thing, I would love to see Hegseth investigate whether officers are using helos instead of driving places unnecessarily. They say this was a training missing but I think if something is not a combat mission, it is called a training mission often.
Seems to line up with the facts as they have been presented so far. My only additional comment is that failing to hire competent ATC's due to skin color, most assuredly contributed to the lack of personnel in the tower that night. That's not political that is cause and effect. I was not aware that the Captain of the Helo was a female and that the flight was erratic. I will leave that where it is, but the inference is obvious.
As Juan Brown pointed out, lateral erratic flight by the helo would have been of no consequence had it maintained its required ceiling of 200 feet. Why on earth did the helo climb to 400 feet?
Incompetence on the part of the pilot of the Blackhawk. Could be for lots of reasons but generally boils down to this: In a highly populated area at night there is a lack of a visible horizon at low altitudes. The visual effect is to think you are lower than you are and to climb until "things look right". The proper response is to check the altimeter to confirm your altitude. I've not flown a helo but in a fixed wing it is very easy to trade forward speed to altitude and one can jump up a couple hundred feet in a very few seconds simply by pulling back on the yoke/stick. My guess is that you can do the same thing in a helo.
This is the best and most detailed summary from an expert perspective. Night Vision Goggles (NVGs) do not allow peripheral vision that would have allowed the pilot or copilot to visually spot the plane in clear night time conditions.
They also are limited on depth perception. I worked as a consultant on a project to develop a flat panel display that added 3D effects to the display. It was a computational hog that overheated the first design to the point of melting down the unit. I was hired to stop it from do that. My first iteration failed. Got got it right on the second.
I am curious as to why this was a PAT 2-5 call sign on the helicopter given what I understand that call sign to mean. I haven't seen an explanation as to why what usually means this: "PAT means priority air transport and is a designation for a cargo of national importance or special persons on board" was used.
Or a yet unnamed pilot on a suicide mission - as likely as anything I see here.
Alex - This is a perfect example of why Unreported Truths is a great value. Not only do we get your expertise but the knowledge and experience of your readers. My guess is that this veteran will be proven correct when the NTSB eventually issues its report.
I second your comments the expertise we just got from the commenters regarding this accident is priceless
This. The Blancolirio channel over on YT said the same. (similarly apolitical) Just a colossal f--k up.
Juan gives really good analysis. Out of all of his videos, I have only disagreed with him once and it was minor, later correcting himself.
I simply cannot move beyond the fact that helo training exercises are flown across ACTIVE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE RUNWAYS in D.C.. Who thought that was a good idea? And yet, this has obviously gone on for decades. I can't imagine, for example, on final approach at DFW watching aircraft of any kind traveling across our flight path. That alone would make the news in Dallas as a near miss. As one pilot noted in the comments, this was an accident waiting to happen. Yes, Trump is pissed. He is the Commander In Chief and his military (and his ATC) were largely at fault here. I hope they learn from this tragedy.
Is there any chance (I have no idea if this is even possible, just asking cuz of the multiple screw-ups by whoever on the helo and the AA plane's highly visual slow and steady descent) that this was an intentional collision?
The AA plane was flying at about 150 knots at the time of the collision. The helo was probably going half as fast. In the video that showed the crash AA was flying directly towards the camera from a couple of miles away and appeared slow. The helo was traveling across the field of view and appeared fast. This was not an intentional collision.
I served in the Marine Corps from 1970-to 1972, two year enlistment, guaranteed Viet Nam. Had orders West Pac Ground Forces, orders canceled due to Nixon group withdrawal. Ended up in Recon Batallion. Flew in a lot of helicopters and the crews were excellent. I only had a few months left and we were having a "Dod and Pony " show for some young men from West Point. I was asked if I wanted to do some repelling or water insertions and I told them I was too short, meaning a short time to go. The show went on and unfortunately when they were doing the water drops, usually 10 to 15 feet above the ocean, the co-pilot radioed back to the crew chief in back they would drop around here and that they were circling again before the drop, but the transmission was cut short. They were eighty feet in the air and the co-pilot had to jump out of his seat and tackle the last guy going out. One Marine broke his back hitting a sand bar and two were killed. It is so hard to hear inside a chopper, frequently screaming at one another. Maybe they are quieter, over 50 years ago, and I know this may not have anything to do about what took place last night. The information put forth by the former pilot really gives you a strong reminder it's a team effort to bring these aircraft in safely. Prayers for the families of those lost in this what seems to have been a preventable accident.