We learned in med school that herpesvirus is one of the smartest ones. Lingers, finds a home in ganglia, but does not kill. Preserves the host, spreads easily. Sort of like politicians...
Well, not exactly. People are scared of Ebola because you can watch the people bleed out. Once people see it with their own eyes, they will react. You'll note that Ebola gets stamped out pretty quickly and nobody needs the CDC to advise them of anything.
I think Ebola in the Obama regime was a trial balloon. I also remember that nurse who came back from West Africa giving the finger to the forced quarantine.
That's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. Ebola, despite its rarity, is fairly well known thanks to modern SciFi and Techno-thrillers. Motoba from Outbreak was an Ebola knockoff, and Clancy's Executive Orders dealt with a similar virus based off of Ebola.
The issue isn't with known viruses, the issue is the eventuality of a novel virus similar to Covid, but with an actual threat behind it.
That balance between infection and legality saves us. Our lab tinkering might create a real nightmare maybe. But we have evolved to survive most of what nature might do.
Wild birds carry the bird flu virus and have a high survival rate. Which brings us to the question of what the actual lethality is for domestic birds. It is 100% right now because as soon as they find a case of bird flu, they KILL all the birds in the facility. And that is often hundreds of thousands or millions of birds. If they let the virus run, who knows what the fatality rate would be. Domestic birds would probably develop immunity just like wild birds have. So why don't they let the bird flu run? Because there is a payout for every bird killed in a culling to get rid of the bird flu virus. And that payout is often higher than the profit generated by bringing the eggs or meat to market.
An article on Ferguson’s decades of being wrong would probably be interesting to some of your readers. AIER did a great take down of the Imperial College Covid models but all the other insane models going back to the 1990’s offer some context on how absolutely stupid it was to have ever paid them any attention. Ferguson’s chief claim to fame is massively overestimating the lethality of every pathogen he “analyzes.”
With respect to models. Freeman Dyson had a great comment on models--on the climate change models. "You can learn from them, but they aren't good at predictions." (+/-).
Back in my misspent youth, I did some modeling. I agree entirely with Dyson.
Alex, all I have is "word of mouth" evidence from people in the farming/ranching community (my extended relatives). I'll do some digging and see if I can come up with more solid evidence about the financial payout for killing birds in a flock that has bird flu vs. profit from bringing them to market.
As an add on to my first comment, I asked Bret Weinstein why domestic birds don't seem to develop immunity and he had an interesting take. Bret is the scientist who discovered that laboratory mice have been bred to have abnormally long telemeres that predispose them to be more tolerant to drugs but more prone to tumors. It doesn't matter much that laboratory mice will all die of tumors if you let them live long enough because they never get to live out a "natural" lifespan and labs love the fact that mice are more tolerant of drugs because it makes it easier to get new drugs approved past the animal testing phase. It is interesting to note that the same selection pressures (allowing only young mice to breed and killing all animals at a young age) that selected for long telemere laboratory mice also select for the same traits in domestic chickens. Chickens also have unusually long telemeres. They too would probably all die from tumors if they lived out a natural lifespan but almost none do. Even egg laying chickens only live about a year while broilers live just a few weeks. So do telemeres have anything to do with viral immunity? They sure do. The interaction is complex but there is certainly some effect. So have we selected for chickens that live short relatively healthy lives with the lowest input of food at the expense of making millions and millions of chickens unable to ever develop immunity to a virus that we almost certainly cannot eliminate?
Our local farm near Christmas had a few birds with bird flu, he not had to slaughter every single geese he had but the turkeys too and apparently defra stipulate he cannot have any birds for 2 seasons
Those of us who have followed the bird-flu hype for years are onto the scam. The numbers are grossly inflated to say the least. As with Covid, the testing methods are so far from accurate they are a farce. Dead birds on the beach....test them....amplify the test until a trace of the virus is found....if not found....amplify more. There are so many toxin in the environment pinning every bird death on H5N1 discredits the entire ploy to keep us frightened. Inspectors descend on poultry farm....5 dead birds found....Cull the remaining million birds and count them all as bird flu casualties. They tried to cause a panic with MERS and SARS but there was still some integrity left in the corporate media and health agencies back then and it all fizzled out. The WHO, once in total control of the worlds health systems, will Pandemicize bird flu, probably sooner than later, and the circus will come to town again. Mark my words! Prediction - early 2024 before the US election cycle gets into full swing. All a pack of lies.
In fairness Neil Ferguson has been predicting millions of deaths from every virus identified for close to 3 decades. Imagine his surprise when people actually listened to him on Covid - after years of the most ridiculous and universally wrong “models” he finally got to shut down the world. Maybe he’s hoping lightening strokes twice.
H1N1 was the new Influenza A variant of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic and it was horrible. H1N1 experienced enough "Antigen Shift" that it qualified as an Influenza Virus of concern for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic. Although, it was very benign in terms of Influenza pandemics.
No worries, unless they've been doing experiments in labs on making it more transmissible to humans, just for research purposes, of course, with no chance of it ever escaping. But hey, since when have they ever done anything as crazy as that.
💓💓💓. It goes so fast!! Our 11 yo daughter is 5’3” and way too grown up. I might baby him just a bit too much as a result. Random question - while I actually like his crested gecko (unlike pangolins she’s actually cute), when do they stop catching lizards and snakes and bringing them in the house???
😂😂😂. I’ve heard that but I’ve only seen them outside a zoo recently for the first time........... on a trip to northern Florida....... I had no clue armadillos were even in Florida before that. My son wants to live in Florida when he grows up because he loves seeing a reptile every step he takes (he also considered Turks until we convinced him living on a tiny pancake that gets hit by hurricanes is bad - Florida at least has roads north and west, islands don’t).
I think another motivation behind BIRDFLUWEAREALLGONNADIE is that many folks are starting to raise chickens in their own backyards to avoid high prices at the grocery stores.
"...the lack of any major respiratory virus pandemics between 1919 and 2020."
People forget, but the 1918 Spanish Flu's transmission was greatly augmented by this little historical event called World War I---in which millions of people were confined in close proximity to each other for weeks in trains and trenches.
It wasn't a super virus---just exploitative of a novel historical situation.
I was there for both of them. I cannot honestly tell you if I had either. It wasn't a big deal--especially the 1957 outbreak. Statistically, a lot of people got it, but in those days we accepted that you would get sick from time to time.
I am staring 80 in the face. Have a handful of co-morbidities, none of which are really much more than "getting old". Had the COVID about a year ago. Medium grade flu. Sick for three or four days followed by a week or so of lethargy.
My dad will be 80 in about a month. I asked him about 1968, the year I was born, and the flu and he basically said that if you got it there might be concern but for the most part any outbreak was not noticeable. My dad was 25 in 1968.
I was 24 in 1968. Married, with a toddler and a pregnant wife. Full time graduate student, teaching half time and picking up the odd consulting job. to pay the bills. I didn't have time to get sick. I don't know if I got it or not.
Your father has a better memory than I. All I remember is that some years there was a lot of flu, some years there weren't. And that the kids got everything. They would be sick for a couple days, we would get it and be sick for a week.
So this guy gets directly exposed to Covid in 2020 and doesn't get sick. He gets the jabs and all the boosters and THEN he gets Covid. Sounds about right.
My daughter in law is one of those who believes in the jabs. She has had the Vid twice. The last time my son was muttering that he wished he would get it. "So that I can sleep in my own bed as opposed to the couch." Teenage granddaughter was horrified.
He didn't get it.
Grandson--early teens--got it. They had a heck of a time with him. He insisted he wasn't sick (he wasn't much) and greatly resented being quarantined.
It was ten years ago when they did gain of function of bird flu and made it airborne against ferrets. But even then none of the ferrets died. However this is ten years later and they could have made it much worse.
Alex, excellent write up about H5N1 and a good explanation about it's viral history and influenza in general. I'm a student of Influenza pandemics and it's interesting that H5N1 was largely unknown (ignored) until 1997 when in infected 18 and killed 6 in Hong Kong in 1997. Between 1998 to 2022 it garnered little attention except for the stray journalist that covered an occasional death because somebody ate an uncooked bird infected with the virus and a couple of rogue virologists that warned every year about the coming H5N1 apocalypse. Clearly, H5N1 naturally has an Extremely Difficult time adapting from an avian to human host. However, IMO there is probably Gain Of Research being done on H5N1 as we speak. All of our favorite bad players want very, very badly to get this experimental mRNA into the Influenza regimen and IMO they would love an Influenza Pandemic, H5N1 or other variant to push yet another mandate and Totalitarian Control, this time using mRNA Influenza shots as the impetus to keep the gravy train rolling and trampling on every man, woman, and child.
We learned in med school that herpesvirus is one of the smartest ones. Lingers, finds a home in ganglia, but does not kill. Preserves the host, spreads easily. Sort of like politicians...
Nice!
Face diapers are just like politicians. They don't work, they need to be changed often and a sure sign of narcissism.
Would that politicians were as benign as herpes . . .
Amen!
"Boy Who Cried Wolf" ends up killing us all because one day there will be a real deadly pathogen and no one will believe it....
Well, not exactly. People are scared of Ebola because you can watch the people bleed out. Once people see it with their own eyes, they will react. You'll note that Ebola gets stamped out pretty quickly and nobody needs the CDC to advise them of anything.
I think Ebola in the Obama regime was a trial balloon. I also remember that nurse who came back from West Africa giving the finger to the forced quarantine.
That's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. Ebola, despite its rarity, is fairly well known thanks to modern SciFi and Techno-thrillers. Motoba from Outbreak was an Ebola knockoff, and Clancy's Executive Orders dealt with a similar virus based off of Ebola.
The issue isn't with known viruses, the issue is the eventuality of a novel virus similar to Covid, but with an actual threat behind it.
That balance between infection and legality saves us. Our lab tinkering might create a real nightmare maybe. But we have evolved to survive most of what nature might do.
Lisa that is what I have been thinking lately too. We are all so used to the liars, that one day when they tell the truth no one will listen anymore
No need to scare everyone!
We would be wearing masks...so everything would be OK...)
………..He said with tongue firmly planted in cheek…………
Wild birds carry the bird flu virus and have a high survival rate. Which brings us to the question of what the actual lethality is for domestic birds. It is 100% right now because as soon as they find a case of bird flu, they KILL all the birds in the facility. And that is often hundreds of thousands or millions of birds. If they let the virus run, who knows what the fatality rate would be. Domestic birds would probably develop immunity just like wild birds have. So why don't they let the bird flu run? Because there is a payout for every bird killed in a culling to get rid of the bird flu virus. And that payout is often higher than the profit generated by bringing the eggs or meat to market.
Do you have data/:evidence on this?
An article on Ferguson’s decades of being wrong would probably be interesting to some of your readers. AIER did a great take down of the Imperial College Covid models but all the other insane models going back to the 1990’s offer some context on how absolutely stupid it was to have ever paid them any attention. Ferguson’s chief claim to fame is massively overestimating the lethality of every pathogen he “analyzes.”
With respect to models. Freeman Dyson had a great comment on models--on the climate change models. "You can learn from them, but they aren't good at predictions." (+/-).
Back in my misspent youth, I did some modeling. I agree entirely with Dyson.
Alex, all I have is "word of mouth" evidence from people in the farming/ranching community (my extended relatives). I'll do some digging and see if I can come up with more solid evidence about the financial payout for killing birds in a flock that has bird flu vs. profit from bringing them to market.
Does the same apply to cows because Ferguson likes “culling” them too..........
Hoof and Mouth.
Bingo
As an add on to my first comment, I asked Bret Weinstein why domestic birds don't seem to develop immunity and he had an interesting take. Bret is the scientist who discovered that laboratory mice have been bred to have abnormally long telemeres that predispose them to be more tolerant to drugs but more prone to tumors. It doesn't matter much that laboratory mice will all die of tumors if you let them live long enough because they never get to live out a "natural" lifespan and labs love the fact that mice are more tolerant of drugs because it makes it easier to get new drugs approved past the animal testing phase. It is interesting to note that the same selection pressures (allowing only young mice to breed and killing all animals at a young age) that selected for long telemere laboratory mice also select for the same traits in domestic chickens. Chickens also have unusually long telemeres. They too would probably all die from tumors if they lived out a natural lifespan but almost none do. Even egg laying chickens only live about a year while broilers live just a few weeks. So do telemeres have anything to do with viral immunity? They sure do. The interaction is complex but there is certainly some effect. So have we selected for chickens that live short relatively healthy lives with the lowest input of food at the expense of making millions and millions of chickens unable to ever develop immunity to a virus that we almost certainly cannot eliminate?
This was such an interesting discussion. He’s a gem, Heather too. They’re so intelligent
Our local farm near Christmas had a few birds with bird flu, he not had to slaughter every single geese he had but the turkeys too and apparently defra stipulate he cannot have any birds for 2 seasons
Covid vaccines have stalled. A new money pit is needed.
Don't worry they have poisonous antidotes in the pipeline for the poisonous jabs. Alls well...
#$laves
Those of us who have followed the bird-flu hype for years are onto the scam. The numbers are grossly inflated to say the least. As with Covid, the testing methods are so far from accurate they are a farce. Dead birds on the beach....test them....amplify the test until a trace of the virus is found....if not found....amplify more. There are so many toxin in the environment pinning every bird death on H5N1 discredits the entire ploy to keep us frightened. Inspectors descend on poultry farm....5 dead birds found....Cull the remaining million birds and count them all as bird flu casualties. They tried to cause a panic with MERS and SARS but there was still some integrity left in the corporate media and health agencies back then and it all fizzled out. The WHO, once in total control of the worlds health systems, will Pandemicize bird flu, probably sooner than later, and the circus will come to town again. Mark my words! Prediction - early 2024 before the US election cycle gets into full swing. All a pack of lies.
Don't worry, I'm sure we're gain-of-functioning as quickly as we can to make it a thing.
Came here for this, H5N1 is not an issue until it is run through a GOF training program. This should be fun.
"grain-of-function"
Ug. That pun was for the birds.
so bad. sorry
After the last 3 years of official grabassery would anyone listen to anything “authorities “ say?
In fairness Neil Ferguson has been predicting millions of deaths from every virus identified for close to 3 decades. Imagine his surprise when people actually listened to him on Covid - after years of the most ridiculous and universally wrong “models” he finally got to shut down the world. Maybe he’s hoping lightening strokes twice.
If we find out that NIH and Fauci have been working on producing a vaccine for H1N1, be very afraid...
This is H5N1. We had H191 in 2009 and the vaccine didn’t work...
It didn’t work? I’m shocked! 🤦
H1N1 was the new Influenza A variant of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic and it was horrible. H1N1 experienced enough "Antigen Shift" that it qualified as an Influenza Virus of concern for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic. Although, it was very benign in terms of Influenza pandemics.
H1N1 as I recall
I’m stealing “side piece exemption”. Thank you Alex! 😂
No worries, unless they've been doing experiments in labs on making it more transmissible to humans, just for research purposes, of course, with no chance of it ever escaping. But hey, since when have they ever done anything as crazy as that.
Pangolins dunnit!
My now 8 year old, then 6 year old, is still angry people tried to blame a pangolin. He thinks they are “cute.” 🙄
Oh that so cute. My twins just turned 12.
Sorta sad. I miss those days!...:(
💓💓💓. It goes so fast!! Our 11 yo daughter is 5’3” and way too grown up. I might baby him just a bit too much as a result. Random question - while I actually like his crested gecko (unlike pangolins she’s actually cute), when do they stop catching lizards and snakes and bringing them in the house???
Well I'm in Florida...so it's nonstop work for me keeping them out whether the kids bring them in or if they sneak in through the plumbing.
So I can't wait until my boy can take over and then maybe his twin sister and the wifey will stop screaming!...:)
😂🤣😂 - is Americas funniest home videos still a thing?
The worse was having to get an armadillo out of the house. They're not friendly
😂😂😂. I’ve heard that but I’ve only seen them outside a zoo recently for the first time........... on a trip to northern Florida....... I had no clue armadillos were even in Florida before that. My son wants to live in Florida when he grows up because he loves seeing a reptile every step he takes (he also considered Turks until we convinced him living on a tiny pancake that gets hit by hurricanes is bad - Florida at least has roads north and west, islands don’t).
It never stops! You're right. We have to make this grift stop being so profitable.
Never comply!
I think another motivation behind BIRDFLUWEAREALLGONNADIE is that many folks are starting to raise chickens in their own backyards to avoid high prices at the grocery stores.
Let the chickens eat the bugs (in my garden)!
"...the lack of any major respiratory virus pandemics between 1919 and 2020."
People forget, but the 1918 Spanish Flu's transmission was greatly augmented by this little historical event called World War I---in which millions of people were confined in close proximity to each other for weeks in trains and trenches.
It wasn't a super virus---just exploitative of a novel historical situation.
What about the regional ones in 1957 and 1968?
I was there for both of them. I cannot honestly tell you if I had either. It wasn't a big deal--especially the 1957 outbreak. Statistically, a lot of people got it, but in those days we accepted that you would get sick from time to time.
I am staring 80 in the face. Have a handful of co-morbidities, none of which are really much more than "getting old". Had the COVID about a year ago. Medium grade flu. Sick for three or four days followed by a week or so of lethargy.
My dad will be 80 in about a month. I asked him about 1968, the year I was born, and the flu and he basically said that if you got it there might be concern but for the most part any outbreak was not noticeable. My dad was 25 in 1968.
I was 24 in 1968. Married, with a toddler and a pregnant wife. Full time graduate student, teaching half time and picking up the odd consulting job. to pay the bills. I didn't have time to get sick. I don't know if I got it or not.
Your father has a better memory than I. All I remember is that some years there was a lot of flu, some years there weren't. And that the kids got everything. They would be sick for a couple days, we would get it and be sick for a week.
As you said, regional, compared to the world-wide spread in 1918 made possible by WWI. With less movement of people a more limited spread.
This bird flu is very serious. My wife just paid $8.49 for a dozen organic eggs. I told her to eat them slowly.
And this from a work newsletter: "Well, it finally got me. Three years into the pandemic I
finally came down with the dreaded COVID-19. As our secretary would say, “I got the Vid.” I had not
gotten it even after my wife, daughter and others close to me contracted COVID beginning in 2020. I
had religiously gotten all the vaccinations and boosters as soon as they became available
as I realized that this was nothing to take lightly."
Gee - I wonder what his family DID NOT GET early in 2020?????
So this guy gets directly exposed to Covid in 2020 and doesn't get sick. He gets the jabs and all the boosters and THEN he gets Covid. Sounds about right.
The operative word is "religiously."
Treatment: Say two "hail Marys" and call me in the morning.
My daughter in law is one of those who believes in the jabs. She has had the Vid twice. The last time my son was muttering that he wished he would get it. "So that I can sleep in my own bed as opposed to the couch." Teenage granddaughter was horrified.
He didn't get it.
Grandson--early teens--got it. They had a heck of a time with him. He insisted he wasn't sick (he wasn't much) and greatly resented being quarantined.
It was ten years ago when they did gain of function of bird flu and made it airborne against ferrets. But even then none of the ferrets died. However this is ten years later and they could have made it much worse.
https://fas.org/pir-pubs/science-and-security-the-moratorium-on-h5n1-gain-of-function-experiments-2/
Alex, excellent write up about H5N1 and a good explanation about it's viral history and influenza in general. I'm a student of Influenza pandemics and it's interesting that H5N1 was largely unknown (ignored) until 1997 when in infected 18 and killed 6 in Hong Kong in 1997. Between 1998 to 2022 it garnered little attention except for the stray journalist that covered an occasional death because somebody ate an uncooked bird infected with the virus and a couple of rogue virologists that warned every year about the coming H5N1 apocalypse. Clearly, H5N1 naturally has an Extremely Difficult time adapting from an avian to human host. However, IMO there is probably Gain Of Research being done on H5N1 as we speak. All of our favorite bad players want very, very badly to get this experimental mRNA into the Influenza regimen and IMO they would love an Influenza Pandemic, H5N1 or other variant to push yet another mandate and Totalitarian Control, this time using mRNA Influenza shots as the impetus to keep the gravy train rolling and trampling on every man, woman, and child.