What will it take for the media and public health bureaucrats to admit the mRNA vaccines have failed?
We're headed into a fourth year of Covid waves and excess deaths; this was not the ending they promised
It’s summer in Australia - but the country, where nearly every adult has been vaccinated, is now entering its fourth Covid wave.
In Switzerland, excess deaths since February have been confined exclusively to people over 65, who are also the only ones who have received mRNA boosters.
The story is similar in South Africa.
In Taiwan, another country with near-total adult vaccine compliance, overall births have plunged and deaths skyrocketed in 2022. (Births are down significantly in most highly vaccinated countries, but the effect is particularly striking in East Asia, which is already in the early stages of demographic collapse.)
(Gee, I wonder. Whatever could the problem be?)
For the countries that used mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna to combat Covid, 2022 has been a year of profound disappointment.
Just one more example: Canada used social pressure and government mandates to reach levels of vaccine compliance well above the United States. About 89 percent of Canadian adults were fully vaccinated by fall 2021, and 60 percent received a booster.
The result: this has already been Canada’s worst year for Covid deaths, with 20 percent more Covid deaths in 2022 than either 2021 or 2020.
If that’s vaccine success, what would failure look like?
(FIND OUT BELOW. NOW, IF YOU’RE A PAID SUBSCRIBER; IN 72 HOURS IF YOU AREN’T.)
The picture looks even worse when the countries that used the mRNA shots (along with with some DNA jabs from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson) are compared to those that didn’t.
In 2020 and 2021, Covid deaths were split geographically. They were highest in upper-income countries in the United States and Western Europe and middle-income countries in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Western Europe and the United States accounted for about 40 percent of all Covid deaths even though they have under 10 percent of the world’s population.
Poor countries with younger populations had relatively few deaths, High-income countries in the Pacific Rim like Australia and Japan (as well as Canada, to a lesser extent) also avoided deaths by locking down early and hard. The media anointed them the outliers, the Covid winners.
But this year - in the post-vaccination world - the geography of Covid deaths has changed. The world has split into two camps, the mRNA countries and everyone else.
On a per-capita basis, the mRNA countries have had far more Covid deaths in the last nine months than the rest of the world - from Australia to Canada, the United States to Taiwan, Japan to France.
The countries that have fared the worst are those that locked down the hardest in 2020 and 2021, probably because they had less natural immunity from earlier infection. But the mRNA nations continue to see significant Covid mortality, week in and week out.
(Vive? la France!)
In contrast, the 80-plus percent of the world that avoided the advanced vaccines have had basically NO Covid deaths since the spring.
That’s true whether they had a lot of Covid deaths in 2020 and 2021, like Peru and Bulgaria, or almost none, like all of Africa.
Overall death rates are also running at least 15 percent above normal in the mRNA countries this year. Deaths are high both because Covid has not vanished entirely and because other deaths are also above normal.
Mortality rose still further this fall in countries that pushed a fourth “bivalent” shot on older people, although in recent weeks deaths have eased slight, alongside the collapse in booster campaigns.
This trend is the opposite of what scientists predicted. As Covid eased, overall deaths were expected to be normal or below because of the “pull-forward” effect - the fact that Covid mainly targets people near the end of their lives.
The non-mRNA countries report all-cause deaths more slowly, and in some cases their figures are less accurate. So it is not clear at this point how overall deaths have changed outside the mRNA countries this year.
But a handful of Eastern European countries that did not use the mRNAs do report overall deaths quickly. Their excess mortality since the spring is significantly below that in Western Europe.
Romania is a particularly striking example. It is very lightly vaccinated against Covid and had a bad Covid wave in fall 2021. But since spring of this year, its deaths have run about 10 percent below normal - the pull-forward effect in action.
These numbers are all published government data. None are open to debate, though their interpretation is.
And they are a problem for both sides on the Covid vaccine debate, though for different reasons.
For skeptics, they’re tricky because they’re complicated and hard to explain. They show a real but marginal increase in deaths, mainly in older people. They are not the Died Suddenly fantasy of young people collapsing en masse.
But for mRNA vaccine advocates - in the media, in government, in public health - they’re a much larger crisis. Two years after the first shots were administered, Covid remains a problem. Covid deaths remain a problem. All-cause mortality remains a problem.
The advocates have dealt with these problems in the simplest possible way, by pretending they don’t exist (and allowing their opponents to make such fanciful claims that they discredit themselves).
I’ve hoped that at some point they would face some kind of significant backlash. I still do.
But I’m increasingly worried that they may just brazen through this colossal failure. I know many of you are frustrated reading the same statistics over and over again. I’m frustrated too. But I don’t see any solution except to keep explaining the truth until folks are ready to listen.
mRNA means never having to say you’re sorry.