Two predictions - one from a skeptic, the other the vaccine-loving conventional wisdom.

Only one can be right. Let's check back in six months.

Call it a natural experiment.

For 18 months, Covid has made fools of anyone who dares to predict its course. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College managed to be completely wrong in both directions in barely a week in March 2020 - keeping his perfect record of failure intact.

I’ve been wrong too, as the bluechecks on Twitter never tired of reminding me. We’ve …