The Trump show trial has taken the United States to the edge of disaster

And what - if anything - can be done to undo the damage is not clear (aside from a Trump landslide, followed by a Trump promise to forswear lawfare, both very unlikely)

What exactly did Democrats think would happen?

For a year, Democratic prosecutors in one of the bluest states in the nation have worked overtime to bankrupt and imprison Donald Trump.

The civil fraud case against Trump, over loans he repaid in full, was bad. The felony indictment for misclassifying accounting records was worse, built on bizarre legal theories and the testimony of an admitted liar.

With the help of friendly judges, the prosecutors won both. Trump, the Republican leader and the favorite to beat the incumbent Democratic president in November, now faces nearly $500 million in fines and four years in prison - for “crimes” that can barely be explained.

—

(Explaining the inexplicable, with your help.)

—

This may be the law, but is not justice.

As a X post now viewed 73 million times put it:

The first felony conviction of a former US President wasn’t for the Iraq or Afghanistan wars, illegal CIA coups, drone striking weddings, or spying on Americans… It was because Trump misclassified a $130,000 payment for a porn star’s NDA [non-disclosure agreement].

Republicans are furious. Rightly.

Now they are openly threatening to strike back. As the New York Times wrote [paywalled] this morning:

Republican allies of Donald J. Trump are calling for revenge prosecutions and other retaliatory measures against Democrats in response to his felony conviction in New York…

G.O.P. leaders in and out of government have demanded that elected Republicans use every available instrument of power against Democrats, including targeted investigations and prosecutions.

Like the Times or not, it has accurately summarized where we stand.

—

I understand the desire to escalate - for retribution, and theoretically deterrence too.

But this way lies madness.

More than madness. This way lies serious risks to the future of the United States.

I don’t think I’m exaggerating.

Trump was uniquely vulnerable. Even though he now lives in Florida, he was a New York resident for most of his life.

But what if local prosecutors find ways around the jurisdictional hurdles and succeed in hanging criminal indictments on out-of-state politicians from the other party? What if they succeed in winning convictions in front of friendly juries? (Mega-donors may be even more vulnerable, because of their second homes. Think of Californians with ranches in Wyoming, New Yorkers with Florida mansions. )

The logical next step will be for the defendants - now felons - to appeal to their home states for help in nullifying or refusing to recognize those convictions.

When states will not even recognize each other’s basic legal authority, they are hardly part of a more perfect union.

—

(Turn that flag upside down)

—

The law and politics have always been intertwined.

Politicians become lawmakers when they win, after all. And Republicans are at least partly to blame for escalating these games by impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998.

But no one can doubt what has happened to Donald Trump in New York represents a major escalation of what people on both sides are now calling lawfare.

So what happens now?

If Biden wins, Democrats and Republicans may well see the Democratic strategy as successful. Trump was leading before the verdict, after all. Republicans will be furious, Democrats triumphant. How will either side back down?

And if Trump wins, he has already said he may use the Department of Justice aggressively against his opponents, potentially including Hillary Clinton and the Biden family.

Of course, Trump could back off that promise.

But it is hard to imagine him doing so, unless he and the Republican Party feel that the voters have already punished Democrats for his legal troubles. In other words, he would need to win so easily that he feels he can be magnanimous in victory (a style that doesn’t come naturally to him anyway). The 2016 and 2020 elections suggest that outcome is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

Trump’s sentencing hearing is barely a month away.

It is going to be a long hot summer.’

And a hotter fall.