(I didn’t think it was possible either.)
But yesterday the Centers for Disease Control, America’s not-at-all-politicized public health agency, released a new study purporting to show that vaccination protects against Covid infection better than natural immunity. Of course, a wave of stories about the benefits of mRNA vaccination followed.
To do this, the CDC used some magic statistical analysis to turn inside raw data that actually showed almost four times as many fully vaccinated people being hospitalized with Covid as those with natural immunity - and FIFTEEN TIMES as many over the summer.
I kid you not.
Further, the study runs contrary to a much larger paper from Israeli researchers in August.
As my two-year-old likes to say, How dey do dat?
Well, the Israeli study drew on a meaningful dataset in a meaningful way to reach meaningful conclusions. It counted infections (and hospitalizations) in a large group of previously infected people against an equally large and balanced group of vaccinated people, then made moderate adjustments for clearly defined risk factors.
It found that vaccinated people were 13 times as likely to be infected - and 7 times as likely to be hospitalized - as unvaccinated people with natural immunity.
In contrast - how do I put this politely? - the CDC study is meaningless gibberish that would never have been published if the agency did not face huge political pressure to get people vaccinated.
Let’s take a look.
The study had a bizarre design.
The agency’s researchers looked at 200,000 people who had been hospitalized with “Covid-like” illnesses from January through August in nine states. Right away, this choice sets up the study in a problematic way; for most of that time, people who had received Covid vaccines believed (because the CDC and others told them) that they were at VERY low risk of getting Covid, and certainly symptomatic Covid. Thus they may have been less likely to go to the hospital at all, or be tested for Covid once they arrived.
But put that aside.
Then the researchers decided to compare two groups - people who had definitely had Covid at least 90 days before and received another Covid test around the time of their hospitalization and people who had been fully vaccinated at least 90 days (but no more than 180 days) before and received a Covid test around the time of their hospitalization.
This choice is also bizarre. Those of you who have been paying attention will know that this date range is designed to make the vaccines look as good as possible by testing in the happy vaccine valley, the short period when mRNA vaccines are at maximum effectiveness (in fact, they are probably starting to lose it by the sixth month).
But more importantly, this criteria excluded the VAST majority of the people hospitalized with Covid-like illnesses or tested for Covid.
Only about 1,000 people out of the 200,000 people hospitalized for Covid-like illnesses over the eight months had a previous documented Covid infection. (Given the fact that at least 20 percent of Americans, and probably more like 40 percent, had had Covid by the spring of 2021, this is a strikingly small percentage - and certainly doesn’t suggest long Covid is much of a threat.)
And only 89 of those 1,020 people with natural immunity tested positive. In contrast, 324 out of the 6,328 vaccinated people who met the study’s criteria tested positive.
But isn’t 324 more than 89?
It sure is. And the CDC didn’t have - or didn’t publish - figures on how many people were actually in the two groups - those with natural immunity and those infected. Instead it compared the PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE TESTS in the two groups.
But why would the percentage of positive tests matter, when we don’t know how many people were actually at risk?
But, amazingly, the statistical manipulation then got even worse.
The natural immunity group had an 8.7 percent positive test rate. The fully vaccinated group had a 5.1 percent positive test rate. So the natural immunity group was about 1.7 times as likely to test positive. (1.7 * 5.1 = about 8.7.)
With such a small number of people in the natural immunity group, that raw “rate ratio” may well have failed to reach statistical significance. (We don’t know, because the CDC didn’t provide an unadjusted odds ratio with 95% boundaries - something I have never seen before in any paper.)
Instead, the CDC provided only a risk ratio that it had adjusted with a variety of factors, including “facility characteristics [and] sociodemographic characteristics.”
And finally, the CDC’s researchers got a number that they could publish - hospitalized people who had previously been infected were five times as likely to have a positive Covid test as people who were fully vaccinated. Never mind that there were actually four times as many people in the second group.
By the way, buried at the bottom of report is some actual data. And it’s bad.
The CDC divided the hospitalizations into pre- and post-Delta - January through June and June through August.
Interestingly, the number of hospitalized people with natural immunity actually fell sharply over the summer, as Delta took off. About 14 people per month were hospitalized in the winter and spring, compared to six per month from June through August. (Remember, this is a large sample, with hospitals in nine states.)
But the number of VACCINATED people being hospitalized soared - from about three a month during the spring to more than 100 a month during the Delta period. These vaccinated people still were less than 180 days from their second dose, so they should have been at or near maximum immunity - suggesting that Delta, and not the time effect, played an important role in the loss of protection the vaccine offered.
Now that’s a finding worth pursuing.
Don’t worry, the CDC will get right on it.
As an MD I am so ashamed and disappointed with the corruption of the medical establishment. Not only the CDC and Public Health, but also mainstream medical groups have been permanently tainted with political bias
Facebook rebrand: Meta
CDC rebrand: CNN
Breaking news! The CDC, in partnership with Phillip Morris has announced that people who smoke have lower risk of lung cancer than people who don’t. In a brilliant move, the CDC focused on 500 smokers who died from COPD a year ago. The control group was 500 non smoking asbestos miners from South America who were less than 90 days from retirement. The CDC recommends everyone Starr smoking 2 packs per day immediately.
How in the world people continue to believe the CDC is beyond me. These "vaccines" do not last, they do not work! Therefore mandates are useless and harmful to the country. I don't understand how people aren't waking up to this fiasco! It is as if we are living in two separate realities.
Hopefully all this nonsense becomes more irrelevant after November 3rd. Our pilot neighbor told us there is going to be really bad weather on November 3rd... but the "bad weather" is going to be affecting job sectors across the board. Sit back and grab the popcorn, everyone.
How will we ever believe govt health agencies ever again. The boy who cried wolf.
I thought I had read the CDC report wrong. Then I flipped on CNN only to hear Poppy Harlow saying how excited she was to be sending her children to finally be vaccinated while a doctor reminded us how much better the vaccine is than naturally acquired immunity. My head is exploding. 🤯
Alex forgets a critical fact that has a large impact on this and similar studies.
Shortly after the vaccine rollout, the CDC directed labs to run the PCR test at substantially LOWER cycle thresholds for those who got the vaccines. It was transparently obvious to all who were paying attention, even at the time, that this was a deliberate play to make the vaccines appear to be beneficial, and which I might add, means that they knew back then that they would not be, or else they wouldn't have needed to tip the table so far.
So we can likely add a hefty percentage in favour of Alex's thesis on the strength of the bias built into the one test they used at that point for Covid. The PCR.
Thank you. I have been waiting for you, or someone to have the actual statistics to refute the CDC's ridiculous claims. Even without the actual statistics we all know the report from the CDC is RUBBISH, to put it politely. I don't now anyone that had COVID that got it again. I do know plenty of people who were "vaccinated" who subsequently get infected with COVID. The CDC is telling a lie, and if they keep telling the same lie maybe sheeple will believe it.
The moment I saw the CDC report I knew it was a smear on natural immunity and it is definitely a predictive response to what must be already a jaw dropping number increase in vaccinated people catching covid. They are trying to get ahead of the crisis.
The Left has corrupted every 3-Letter Government Agency.
The Right has let them do it.
Thank God you are reporting on this. Thank God for substack. It makes it possible to get the facts out.
You missed the whole point, the CDC gave the vaxxed the report they needed to “save Christmas”
Never mind that the rest of the world saw right through it and their are none, ZERO, independent studies that corroborate that Harvard genius, Rachelle Walensky’s organization of cartoonists at the CDC. Dumber than a box of jelly fish.
You are awesome Alex!
To the nurses, pilots, and others (Bongino) out there losing jobs through this artificial pandemic, we support you!
The Truth shall set you free!
There are two more 'fatal flaws' with this study:
1. Natural immunity was never established. You cannot say natural immunity unless you actually test whether a person has T-cell antibodies. The CDC established the natural immunity group simply based on people who had a prior positive PCR test but had not received a vaccination. The PCR tests are known to produce false positives, so a substantial number of people in the "natural immunity" category actually did not have prior infection and therefore did NOT have natural immunity.
2. AGE. The very last section in Table 2 (bottom of article) shows the age effect in ≥65 vs <65. Almost the entire effect for the vaccines is driven by the ≥65 age group — what this means is the vaccines are better than "natural immunity" if you're quite old and incapable of generating an immune response to a virus. This is what we all expect and nobody is denying that seniors should probably get vaccinated to boost their immune response. There is a trivial vaccine effect in anyone under 65 and if they were to exclude the false positives from the natural immunity group, this effect would almost certainly flip (ie natural immunity would be better at protecting from future infection).
I would have given an analysis like this a C to my 3rd year biostats students. It's not good.
Isn't the fact that the CDC is doing "studies" like this at all a de facto admission that the shots do not work as advertised? If they did, the rate of hospitalization among those who got the shots would be effectively zero.
What is generally unknown is that in many scientific or medical research groups, there are hangers-on, folks that are on the big grants and publications but rarely contribute anything to the research. This is a fact of life because of various political factors. These people carry big credentials, but mostly they focus only on the politics of science within the grant community. I suggest that the CDC and NIH is loaded with such folks - at the highest levels.
The politicization of the CDC has rendered it useless. Hopefully, the next President will simply abolish it.
"There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics." Mark Twain.
For months I wrote a biweekly report on CDC's VAERS stats on vaccine injury and death... until the numbers started jumping wildly all over the place. It became apparent that the numbers are being heavily manipulated so I stopped doing the report. Dr. Jessica Rose (PhD in computational biology) testified before the FDA's vaccine advisory committee that the VAERS numbers need to be multiplied by a factor of 41x, which puts the death toll in the US over 700,000, greater than the 'official' death count from covid.
Thank you Alex!!! My mom
Literally sent me the yahoo (cough and die) article about this CDC study and I actually allowed it to let me lose sleep because I was irate and breezing through the sheeze research to point out the dump it is to my mother. (You can see I'm still a bit riled about it). And so sent an email to her kindly wary this morning just pointing out surface level stink and let her know if anyone trustworthy I follow write something I'll be sure to send it to her. Alex, man when your email came through first thing this morning I almost danced. Knew you'd be on it! THANK YOU! I will be forwarding this to her and awaiting more of my trustworthy truth sources to reveal the actuality of this. So sad we have to "believe" the CDC because the the drivel they have been putting out for over a year is a crime.
Here's the deal. They don't care if this is a good study, all that matters is that it produces headlines they want. Why are they pushing so hard for these worthless shots? I'm starting to believe the crazy theories.
The ‘science’ is now following the politics, no more credibility
What got me on this study is that the cohort was entirely people hospitalized for a respiratory disease. Somehow, the CDC wanted the media to believe that people hospitalized with a respiratory disease could be generalized to the population as a whole. Another interesting realization was that at least 10x more people were being hospitalized for a respiratory disease for something other than covid. Covid is only about 5% of major respiratory diseases causing the strain on hospitals.
This has nothing to do with health; it is solely about power and control.
I wrote an article about the same topic last night.
The CDC study, as purposely badly designed as it was, contains extremely damning data about just how sickly the vaccinated people are and how ruined is their immunity.
86% of the CDC study group who are hospitalized, WERE VACCINATED. Eh, I thought last week CDC said they were only 1/3rd as likely to die? Well now they are 7 TIMES more likely to be hospitalized for "Covid Like Illness" (CLI).
It gets worse. In Table 1, there is a TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIP between CLI hospitalizations and vaccinations, with the vaccinated going to hospitals in droves 5 months after vaccination.
I explain this in my post from last night:
There is a lot of data in that CDC article and you could pick more fun conclusions from it if you pay close attention. Just a hint!
My anesthesiologist friend says, "if the CDC says go left you had better to right" because they are so corrupted. Time for the CDC and FDA to be shutdown.
My delusional science: my wife being a RN, BSN, daughter PA have seen first-hand data. Conclusions; vax is a total failure and can be dangerous, period.
Out of my wife staffed 31 RNs, LPNs, CNAs only two, yes 2, opted in on the booster and was the CVS nurse disappointed. Ironically the two which received the booster were the first to enter the facility that morning, snatched up at entry and claim they thought it was mandatory. Mow they're pissed because everyone else opted out. They've all received the full original doses and felt the terrible side effects. Not all, but half anyway.
They also seen the adverse effects of the vaccine on patients. Ddimer bloodwork is NOT being talked about!
My science: within three years, big trouble, BIG for a large population of vaxed.
Don't harm your child!
I had a telehealth appointment to discuss a recommended procedure, but the MD told me he would not want to expose his vaccinated staff to me, since I am unjabbed. I told him I believe I had COVID, so I likely have immunity, and I even shared that I take Ivermectin as a prophylaxis, just in case. I suggested that his vaxxed staff can also spread COVID to me, and that they might have milder symptoms and just think they have a cold, and could pass COVID on to me without realizing. He doubled down, and said his staff is like family, and he would never want them to be exposed to me. He treated me like a leper. We agreed to disagree, and I will not be having the procedure that was recommended. I am now resorting to using a holistic nurse practitioner 90 minutes from my home for treatment of hypothyroidism. My husband and I are 62, rural (red state), and in excellent health, but we have decided to avoid doctors and hospitals and pray we will not need specialized medical help anytime soon. I have my PhD, and trained in a medical setting. The medical system had been gradually declining for a long time, with one size fits all medicine, and a real lack of individualized care. I observed this as my parents and in-laws declined in health and passed away. I pray now for us all, and especially the children. I desperately wish that there was a way to easily locate physicians that respect freedom of choice, and also know the FACTS, rather than just regurgitating the CDC, FDA, and media talking points.
Pretty soon people’s eyes will be able to see what’s right in front of them and that it doesn’t match what the CDC says.
Also, wait until all the laid off healthcare workers who have nothing to lose start talking.
Where's the data on the CONTROL group? Those that didn't get the Vax and Haven't gotten Sick and continue to test NEGATIVE?
I went into hospital this week for a non Covid related treatment. The nurse and I got to talking, well whispering. She was unvaxed, waiting for her exemption to be approved. I said how many of you are there are there are thousands? She said there are tens of thousands of us refusing it. It’s just the media don’t want you to know that. I asked her why they were refusing on such large numbers, she said because they’ve seen the results of what’s happening to the vaccinated coming in.
Watch this George Carlin video on germs and the immune system.. He was so brilliant..
Alex thank you for being a beacon of light in the darkness; and doing it with a sense of humor.
Even Dr. Martin kulldorf, the lead epidemiologist of Harvard said testing was useless. Not to mention the CDC should have been doing their own studies months ago but are not. He stated people with natural immunity have far better immunity than people who have taken the experimental gene therapies. Guess who I trust more? You guessed it. NOT the CDC. this is the same organization that wants to inject children. He is vehemently opposed to injecting children. He has been very vocal about the collateral damage that has been done to children and adults from lockdowns, restrictions and the undo pressure being put on everyone from the CDC and #faucithefraud. Guess who holds the purse strings for many a doctor and experts? Fauci. Guess why they aren't speaking up?
I'm sharing ALL of your posts to Facebook. I'm sure I'm shadow banned but some still see it. Regardless, it's important to get it out to as many as possible. Hopefully you've now had numerous of my friends who've followed you here. You do tremendous work Alex.
Elon Musk is convinced that we live in some form of a Matrix. At first, that theory really messed with my mind but when I walk into a Wegmans and see 90% of people with cloth diapers around their faces - convinced! (convinced I tell you...) - that they are winning the war against the deadliest pandemic the world has faced in the last hundred years, I must admit that I think they have been 'programmed' to process MSM in a way that seems almost robotic like. Here's a tip... if you need more respiratory protection to strip paint off your walls than fight off the world's deadliest virus (no disrespect to your neighbour Betty's mask sewing capabilities,) then maybe you are just 'hard-wired' differently from the rest of us. The Matrix is a bit of a stretch but there is some brain coding that the followers of The Church of Fauci seem irrevocably drawn to time and time again. Follow the science... more like, 'take me to your leader.'
The CDC's political study is what we call lying with statistics. It's insane to me that the DOJ refuses to do their job and reign in the administrative state.
All this further does is confirm I will leave a job that forces me to get this shit, and I will not take a job that requires it. I would rather be a martyr than comply with this complete bs. I'm done.
Its funny I read this bs last night after it was posted and immediately pointed out to my wife the 1k vs 6k discrepancy. If you can be bothered to be honest about this part of vaccination, what else are they hiding/lying about?
So, reading the many medical professional comments as well as patients, I suggest a doctor set up a national no-vax medical reference site where people can find a good doctor in their state or area. It could charge a small fee or get donations like GAB. With thousands of people looking for good doctors, it could survive and help doctors seeking patients. I would contribute.
I'll admit that I need a "for dummies" version of this article bc I get that the CDC is being deceptive, but I'm not quite sure why. I've read the article twice and am still not completely understanding. That's what I get for studying humanities🙄.
I'm at the brink. I just don't know how to keep going. It is so hard to be positive in a world full of lies. How did people who came before us & experienced similar propaganda do it? Is there any hope when collusion among gov, media & big tech has made it possible to propagandize the world? I kept thinking people would finally wake up, but I still see folks in their 20s & 30s walking around voluntarily masked
A lady in her late 50's was in my office yesterday inquiring about a car for sale.
Somehow she began telling me she was thrice jabbed and how stupid ppl are for not giving into the vaccine "mandates", etc.
She included how sometimes we have to "sacrifice" for the good of others by wearing a mask, etc, even though it's inconvenient and uncomfortable.
When I pointed out to her that neither she nor I were wearing a mask, that was pretty much the end of her car inquiry. LOL 😃
Thank you, Alex. Even as a physician this is the sort of statistical analysis and even debatable commentary we would see in the past (always great action when researchers go after each other!) that is no longer published. The dangers of publication bias are well documented. And the necessary, if blind, slavishness to the agenda has only further diminished and even sullied forever what were ,in the past, some of the greatest scientific bodies in the world. Distressed to see my own professional organization, the American Academy of Family Physicians, has just signed on with the American Academy of Pediatricians to tout the vaccine for kids idiocy.
Similar to the fraud which is “white supremacy”, they need to lie and stage fake events to prove their point. The ends always justify the means to these liars, never back down to them. Thank you for all you’re doing Alex.
Let's call it what it is..... the Center for Diseased Corporations
This is starting in MI hopefully other states will follow:BREAKING NEWS! A new Freedom Healthcare System is emerging in Michigan! A new web-based platform is about to launch! This web-based platform is working to develop a parallel health network in Michigan and is now accepting requests from providers to post their practices and businesses as well as healthcare workers seeking alternative employment opportunities that respect personal healthcare choices.
If you are a healthcare provider, email: firstname.lastname@example.org with your healthcare training and area you are located, to request access to the database being built. Likeminded health professionals will gain access to a referral network and be able to post job offerings. Soon patients will be able to search for providers near them and healthcare
People have made a lot of money off of covid. Mostly the global elite billionaires. Force government lockdowns where people are in their homes watching government fear propaganda all day and night.
Close all businesses except Amazon. Create a vaccine under the guise of saving lives. Mandate the vaccine to develop a global passport to track your every move. Big brother is here.
Forced to take an experimental and occasionally deadly vaccine -- multiple times -- but not allowed to try perfectly safe existing drugs as early treatment.
It is my understanding that after recovery from COVID19, most will continue to test positive with the PCR (probably set at 40 cycles) tests for several months. It seems to me that the natural immunity group were not reinfected, but still had virus fragments from the original.
I am in the natural immunity crowd and I refuse to believe that I could be reinfected. Maybe I am just stubborn.
A virus so deadly most need a test to know they have it. Sad!
Heart disease kills 700,000 Americans every year. Why isn’t the new Marist government regime mandating healthy food and exercise. Shutting down fast food restaurants. Hmmm.
A friend was fully vaccinated in April. She got covid in August. She was sick for 4 weeks. She’s in excellent shape (exercises, eats right, very fit) but is somewhere around 50 yo. There is no point in mandating this shot. None.
The first thing I noticed in the CDC report is they continually used the term Covid "like" symptoms. Thanks as always for your in depth analysis.