423 Comments

Please cover the Canadian trucker convoy. Aside from Rebel News I can’t find much…….

Expand full comment

I'm old enough to remember the 70's. Looks like we're set to repeat. Buckle up.

Expand full comment
Feb 14, 2022·edited Feb 14, 2022

We haven’t even paid for the sins of the 2007-2008 collapse, all was papered over. Many would say we still haven’t paid for the dot com bust.

It’s now a bubble, on top of a bubble, inside of a bubble. Makes me think WW3 starting over Ukraine isn’t such an insane possibility. The only way out of this is war, and history shows us that.

Expand full comment

Canadian trucker protest is an actually peaceful protest to fight against mandatory vaccinations. This should have the world's attention and support, and it's weird Alex hasn't really touched it. The media hides it and misrepresents it, which is to be expected. Today Trudeau claimed emergency powers for the government to break even more laws than they are with the covid shot mandates. Alex, anything on the truckers?

Expand full comment

Good pithy analysis. I have tried to explain the “no free lunch” concept to my friends and some trolls on the internet over the years. Especially when it comes to the ludicrously named “global climate change” issue; but it applies across the board to anything…obviously.

What I have discovered is that simply telling people that “what goes up, must come down” or “there is no such thing as “renewable” energy”, one can not save enough energy going down a hill to go back up the same hill” or “you can not filter out a .1-micron viral pathogen using a tee shirt you bought on sale at a thrift store” or even something as seemingly obvious as “you can not spend your way out of debt”…simply does not work. Nobody listens. Its insanity.

So I stopped engaging, canceled my facebook and twitter accounts…bought hard assets like real estate and commodities. I am just hoping to ride this out until people with half a brain are back in power. That may not be in my lifetime however…I am aware.

Expand full comment
Feb 14, 2022·edited Feb 14, 2022

Don’t pretend that republican spending isn’t also fucking us… 7.8 trillion under Trump…

Expand full comment
Feb 14, 2022·edited Feb 14, 2022

This is all intentional & all part of the same game.

Look at what Trudeau just did, today.

The “elites” don't give a damn about the peasants.

Inflation can destroy a nation…looking at you Venezuela.

But, don't, for one second, think that the “elites” are ever going to miss a meal.

Expand full comment
Feb 14, 2022·edited Feb 14, 2022

The incomprehensible reality is that these people crave power to such an extent, they believe deservedly so. However, they do not have any understanding of how to wield it for the benefit of all. Greedy, selfish, and disgusting human beings.

Expand full comment

Amazing! This is the spirit that will get us through this. (And I really believe it could get like the 20s and 30s. The Biden-ites are just that out of touch.) A subscriber named "Renegade" just bought me a subscription because I said (to Alex) that I'd love to subscribe but am in "save every penny" mode. A kind of Valentine Day's present if you will. Thank you, Renegade!!!

Expand full comment

The administration is just lying. Stock up and plant a garden. Happy ❤️!

Expand full comment

So they lied about WMD in Iraq. Then they lied about spying on us - to Congress. They lied about where the virus came from. Then they lied about HCQ, and Ivermectin (horse dewormer!). And they lied about the shots - safe & effective! And then they lied about money printing, and its effects on inflation.

There's a theme here....let's see...

Expand full comment

Government is always trying to downplay inflation because it's the main way in which they steal the value out from under our savings and labor. And Biden wants to keep printing trillions to hand out to the politically connected. It's madness.

-----------------------

https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/inflation-and-you?r=uh70u

We tend run into huge problems when monetary inflation is increasing quickly and the number of goods and services in the economy is not. I’m guessing those of you old enough to remember the Jimmy Carter years remember stagflation.

"Stagflation is an economic event in which the inflation rate is high, economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high."

Sound familiar? This is exactly what the government’s response to covid (not covid itself) created. They flooded the country with dollars while also shutting down places that actually create the goods needed to grow. Now even the zoned-out are noticing prices rise extremely quickly. And once the fake economy of being close to the people running the money-making machine overtakes the real economy of voluntarily providing goods and services, the wheels come off the bus.

Unfortunately for us, Joe Biden has a plan to tackle inflation. He wants to print and spent trillions MORE dollars so that you pay ‘less’ for stuff like drug prescriptions or child care! Remember how Obamacare was going to save you money on healthcare costs but you never actually saw any savings? We’re going to take that ‘efficiency’ and spread it out to MORE places! He wants to crank that wave machine up to 11, and he claims this will LOWER inflation. But it will do the opposite.

Expand full comment

"I'll take unprecedented money printing for $500, Alex. Although, is that $500 now costing me $600?"

Expand full comment

OMIGD!!!! thank you, Renegade!!! He just bought me a subscription because I said, quite truthfully, that I'm trying to save every penny!!! That's the way we'll get through this, guys. I will try to pass it along!

Expand full comment

Higher interest rates will spell the end of many zombie companies, technically bankrupt but kept alive by free money from the Fed. Especially large banks! The cost of govt borrowing will skyrocket as well.

No fun!

Expand full comment

It's possible to have both inflation and a recession -- see 1970s stagflation. Inflation has already happened via the gargantuan increase in our money supply/national debt. Now you're looking at the result "rising prices" -- which is really the value of the dollar cratering. I don't think there's a way out at this point -- Hello Venezuela.

Expand full comment

Alex, I love you but I have to disagree on the conclusion that the only way to slow inflation is to reduce demand.

There are three fundamental causes to the current price increases. Two are supply/demand related, and one is monetary policy related:

1) Supply of goods has been constrained from the lockdowns, which caused severe labor market disruptions, which caused a labor shortage, which has led to a supply chain bottleneck. Supply curve shifts inward, all things equal this leads to higher prices

2) From forgiven PPP Loans, additional extended fiscal stimulus in the form of lots of checks for people who are not working, plus some pent up demand from being locked down, this shifts the demand curve outward, also leads to higher prices.

3) An ultra easy money monetary policy by the central bank (Fed). This is coming in two forms: quantitative easing, fancy words for the Fed using newly (digitally) printed money to buy treasury and mortgage bonds in the bond market to the tune of $60 billion per month for a long time. This effectively forces down long term rates.

Two, holding the fed funds rate near zero, they do this by creating an inelastic demand for short term bonds and suppress short term rates.

The effect is artificially low interest rates which means more borrowing, both for consumption and for investment purposes.

Basically a perfect storm.

BUT: freeing up the supply chain and resuming a healthy movement of goods of all kinds will go a long way to easing prices.

Furthermore, stopping paying people to stay home and do nothing would slow that artificial demand.

Finally, yes you are correct the Fed has to raise rates or this will indeed spiral out of control.

Expand full comment

And the poorest suffer most. This is why the Democratic Party is NOT for the poor or the little guy or minorities.

Expand full comment

An illegitimate election, a puppet presidency, political prisoners held without trial, soaring inflation…nothing to see here

Expand full comment

A good read: The Fiat Standard by Saifedean Ammous, and The Bitcoin Standard. Set any preconceived thoughts aside that you may have about Bitcoin and read what Ammous has studied thoroughly. It is a great read on the history of money, and what happens when the government is in control of it. One must fully grasp our current economy to understand why Bitcoin is the answer.

Expand full comment
Feb 15, 2022·edited Feb 15, 2022

Alex missed some stuff. This is a fake economy that's been pumped up on a mountain of cheap debt. Not only personal debt, but government debt. Raising interest rates to the level required to put out the looming stagflation fire would completely crash the stock markets, result in a tsunami of corporate and private bankruptcies, destroy the housing market and ....perhaps most importantly, potentially bankrupt the federal government because it would threaten it's ability to finance the $30 trilling in national debt. Just a mere "normalizing" of interest rates to around 5% (currently at 0%), would not result in a recession, it would invite a depression that would make the 1930's look like an economic boom. And remember, back in the early 80's Volker had to raise rates into the double digits to tamp down the inflation fires that crushed the Carter administration and got us Regan a return to limited government political revolution.

The Federal Reserve is completely trapped. It is faced with a choice of destroying the dollar, an actual currency crisis, by maintaining the loose fiscal policy that keeps interest rates low, stock markets high and allows the federal government to financier its debt, or it can choose to fight inflation which will result in a depression and possible federal bankruptcy. It's going to continue to try to jawbone rates higher without actually raising them and hope to walk a tightrope it can't possibly stay on between higher rates or soaring inflation. It will also ramp up efforts to hide the inflation, which it already does a good job of but it will do more. I don't think it will be able to do enough to get people to stop believing their lying eyes though.

My guess is it will ultimately choose to sacrifice the dollar, which will actually inflate the national debt away and prevent government bankruptcy and, of course, economically destroy the non-asset rich part of the population. The other option, which would destroy the government and ruling class elites by crushing asset prices and plunging the economy into a depression which would result in their removal from office isn't going to work for them.

Expand full comment

"They really are this stupid and overconfident." I think the appropriate word here is "hubris." The current gang at the White House are certainly full of it,...hubris too.

Those of us old enough to remember the stagflation of the late 70's and the Volcker induced recessions of the early 80's know exactly what Alex is talking about. For instance, my parents bought a house in 1984. I believe the interest rate on the mortgage was something like 14%.

Alex is also right that the investor class and property owners (I mean investment property) will largely be protected from inflation, since those assets inflate right along with the money. Those who don't own any assets, renters and wage workers are going to be screwed by this. I remember watching an interview from about a decade ago. I wish I could remember the name of the fellow being interviewed. I believe he was Swiss or Austrian. At any rate, his assessment was that inflation is the 1 percenters' revenge on the rest of us for getting out of line. Seems about right for what we see at the moment.

Expand full comment

I studied economics in graduate school in the early 80’s. All I really know as a result is inflation economics. Here is what I know: the real price you pay for massive public debt is inflation. If you create money, it dilutes the value of money. None of this is a surprise to me. $30 trillion in debt = inflation. No surprise, but this is big, big trouble.

Expand full comment

If anyone isn’t aware of modern monetary theory is save yourself the time and just pretend it actually stands for magic money tree because that is essentially it.

Expand full comment

All intentional it seems - purposefully let things go to Sh*t, cause chaos, implement police state, control the masses, strip us of our freedoms and liberty. Go truckers and hope those asleep and compliant wake the hell up.

Expand full comment

That prediction by Jen Psaki - that wasn't meant to be statement of fact; it was meant as marketing and persuasion, pure and simple. The numbers were fantasy meant to persuade.

I don't think they have any concept of true or false, real or unreal anymore. It's all hype, and I think they buy their own hype.

Expand full comment

Who cares. I love Biden. I haven’t worked in 2 years. They just keep sending me money. Love it!!!

Expand full comment

Question for Alex (and anyone who has faced the reality that government consists of pathological liars and scammers:

Has anyone converted to being Libertarian yet? Anyone? Or do you still think the government is the solution

Expand full comment

"Recessions are awful. But inflation is worse." Exactly. That's why the FR is only going to raise interest rates .25%. Yup a whopping 1/4 of 1%. These anarchists want to destroy the US economy and then remake it into a Soviet style gulag. They have no intention of fixing this economy. Pretty soon you'll need a wheelbarrow of fake US currency to buy a loaf of bread.

Expand full comment

Feeling inflation right now as I sit and wait for three hours for my son rather than drive 45 minutes back home after I spent $100 on this tank of gas, and that's just because that was the cut off on the debit card. But somehow I guess this is just hurting the rich.

Expand full comment

I was trying hard to figure out in what world Trudeau, Freeland, AOC and the Biden administration thought Modern Monetary Theory was a good idea— until I realized they’re all in line with WEF’s Agenda 2030. Remove western wealth. Open the floodgates of immigration. Dilute “western” culture by giving out free lunch until we’re a communist state where nobody owns anything. The interconnectedness of these absurd policies is sickening.

Expand full comment

1) The Federal Government always lies regardless of which party controls the Whitehouse

2) regardless of party the Federal Government always lies

3) whether it's a Republican or Democrat who is president the US Federal Government always lies and sees it as a just and noble lie

Expand full comment

Given the fact that the Biden administration has been dead wrong on absolutely ever issue, what would make Psaki's statement newsworthy would be that it was correct.

Expand full comment

I'd subscribe but I'm too broke. Trying to find new ways to cut costs everyday as the price of food and gas continues to rise

Expand full comment

Inflation did not exist, now its good for you!

Expand full comment

Alex is absolutely right

Expand full comment

Elections have consequences, and stolen elections have catastrophic consequences.

The puppeteers of the Brandon regime are doing everything they can to dismantle the underpinnings of our country. The only way their corruptocracy can survive is if there's some crisis for them to declare as an emergency so they can circumvent all normal constitutional methods.

Expand full comment

This inflation has little to do with the supply chain issue. The government has been doing non-stop stimulus since 2008. There is too much money chasing too few goods. The federal reserve is the one doing the stimulus. Truth be told, the government doesn’t need your taxes anymore*, they just “print” money into existence for whatever need they have. They keep taxes to “steer” the people in the direction they want. It’s crowd control, like so much else.

* that’s actually a bad thing. It’s one more way the oligarchy is disconnecting from We the People.

Expand full comment

The thing that many people don't understand is that for all the lip service given to fighting inflation, the government LOVES inflation. It allows them to spend freely to pad their own pockets and those of all their lobbyists and best friends. It allows the debt to become less of a burden.

For all their pretense that they care about the pain that rising food and gas prices impose on average citizens, they really don't care at all as long as they are getting rich and powerful. And make no mistake, inflation is the easiest way to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich. There is almost nothing that will stop them now.

I expect double digit inflation to be the norm very soon. I'd suggest that everyone with assets protect them asap. Buy hard assets like real estate and precious metals. Foreign, dividend paying, value stocks will likely do very well. I'd be cautious about US stocks. Even though inflation generally inflates stock prices, the US economy is likely to suffer dramatically from stagflation. That isn't a good environment for US companies.

Expand full comment

I know it's not a popular sentiment, but Alex, thank you for mentioning cannabis. Here in Illinois they have gone hog wild with cannabis sales everywhere you look. I can't believe this is going to end well. Many years back, two family members "graduated" from cannabis to opioids. I've heard all the arguments that cannabis isn't a "gateway" drug, but my own limited experience says otherwise. I think we are making a big mistake.

Expand full comment

You are one helluva writer Alex Berenson! Keeping it real. Keep ‘em coming.

Expand full comment

One of the things I realized from Covid is that States with their governments are over. We are moving irrevocably toward a one world government. Most countries in the world had the same fantastical lockstep reaction, the masks, the isolation, the vax, knowing full well this was destroying their economy and endangering their peoples. This is also reflected in our open door policy at the southern border. This refugee problem is happening in many countries. What does it matter what country you live in when Big Brother is directing your life.

Expand full comment

The Fed will not appreciably raise rates anytime soon because they are transferring wealth. The Fed runs the government and none of our politicians will take them on. Inflation is doing their work. It's not a problem for them. They intend to crush the middle class and own everything.

Expand full comment

The interest payment on our current debt at the current rate of .5% is over 740 billion per year. At 10% it balloons to 14.8 trillion per year without touching the principal and that also assumes no additional debt.

A rock and a hard place indeed.

Do nothing = hyperinflation.

Raise rates = domestic insolvency and collapse of world economy.

Hedge accordingly :)

Expand full comment

Yep - we’re talking Weimar Republic inflation eventually. Ludwig von Mises warned about the dangers of excessive money printing over 100 years ago.

Expand full comment
Feb 15, 2022·edited Feb 15, 2022

Using the 1990 calculation, inflation is over 10%.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Expand full comment

Happy Valentine's Day. Thank you for reminding me daily that I'm not crazy.

Expand full comment

Detective Berenson! Happy Velentines Day! ❤️

Expand full comment

Where is Paul Volcker?

Expand full comment

Of course, the Biden Regime is poised to start a war with Russia. When the situation keeps getting worse, just change the daily talking points and hope the people are stupid enough to rally 'round the flag just one more time. Poor Old Joe has more important things to worry about than silly little things like skyrocketing inflation.

Expand full comment