mRNA Covid booster campaigns have flamed out. Will lower excess mortality follow?

New datapoints suggest yes. A continuing trend will be VERY good news - and even harder for Covid vaccine advocates to explain.

New evidence of a link between all-cause mortality and mRNA Covid vaccines is arriving - for an unexpectedly hopeful reason.

After a short burst of booster shots earlier this fall, people in highly mRNA vaccinated countries are resoundingly rejecting more jabs. The $100-billion-plus experiment with novel Covid vaccines is finally grinding to a halt.

Now death rates, which have run 15 to 20 percent above normal in the mRNA countries all year, may be dropping somewhat too.

The figures are fragmentary, but promising.

Just a few hours ago, Victoria, Australia, which comes closer than anywhere else in the world to counting actual deaths in real time, reported 3,736 deaths in November. That figure was only about 5 percent above the 2016-2021 average - well below monthly increases from earlier in the year.

Last Thursday, a European consortium called EuroMOMO said its most recent weekly estimates “show elevated but decreasing level of excess mortality.”

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Of course, the trend is only in its earliest stages, and may yet reverse. But if it continues, the trend will be the strongest evidence yet that the mRNA shots themselves - not “long Covid” or other potential factors - have driven deaths higher this year in the countries that used them.

(Why? The answer lurks behind the paywall, at least for the next 72 hours.)

Both vaccine advocates and the hard-core anti-vaxxers have misunderstood and misrepresented all-cause mortality data since countries completed the first wave of mRNA vaccinations in 2021.

Vaccine advocates have spent the last year ignoring the reality that deaths remain well above normal in highly mRNA vaccinated countries. The rise even more striking because it runs contrary to predictions demographers made when Covid began.

Because the novel coronavirus clearly targeted people at the end of their lives, researchers expected a so-called “pull-forward” effect - that deaths would temporarily drop following the end of the pandemic before returning to normal a year or two later.

The rise in deaths has now gone on for too long to be ignored, so vaccine advocates have sought to blame it on “long Covid,” delayed medical care, or continuing Covid deaths in the unvaccinated.

The second and third explanations are provably untrue.

Countries like Australia and Taiwan had essentially no Covid and thus delayed medical care in 2020 and 2021, yet they have large increases in deaths now. Meanwhile, all over the world, the vast majority of Covid deaths now occur in the mRNA vaccinated. In Israel, for example, 64 of the 82 people who died in the last month had received at least two mRNA shots.

The long Covid explanation is harder to argue, mostly because at this point even the proudest, loudest long Covid advocates have not quite defined what long Covid is, much less how it might kill its victims.

Worse, long Covid is such a joke - I mean a pressing medical mystery - that the very expensive clinics set up to research and treat it cannot even find enough patients to fill their offices.

(And by unaware, the writer means “couldn’t care less”)

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Meanwhile, many anti-vaxxers have overstated the increase in deaths this year - and also misrepresented who is dying and why. Leading anti-vaccine scientists have claimed that deaths are 40 or 50 percent above normal, and that many excess deaths are occurring in young people.

In reality, the excess deaths this year have nearly all occurred in the elderly and frail, just as deaths from Covid do. In Quebec, for example, overall deaths are well above normal this year, but deaths in people under 50 are NOT.

(The black line represents deaths this year in Quebecers under 50, which are actually below the trend of the last several years.)

Other countries, from South Africa to the Netherlands, report similar trends. As Statistics Netherlands reported in its monthly report on deaths in October, deaths were 16 percent above normal, and “mortality was up mainly among long-term care recipients and people aged 65 and over.”

The fact that excess deaths have been so concentrated in the elderly this year is less headline-grabbing than the scare stories of young deaths offered by “Died Suddenly” and similar propagandists.

If anything, though, it is actually MORE worrisome for the mRNA vaccines.

The reason is that advanced countries, including the United States, convinced or forced nearly the vast majority of adults to receive an initial Covid vaccine series, usually with the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines.

But people under 50 were far more reluctant to receive a third shot, and almost none have received a fourth booster or bivalent/fifth booster. In England, more than 80 percent of people over 70 have received a shot in the last three months. But only about 10 percent of those under 50 have received one even in the last six months.

(Light blue means no vaccine for at least six months)

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In other words, excess deaths this year are concentrated in the elderly people who are getting mRNA Covid boosters, not the younger people who are not.

Some of those deaths are classified as Covid-related - an oddity in and of itself, since in the rest of the world, countries that used other types of coronavirus vaccines no longer report any Covid deaths. (It is possible that those countries, which are poorer and younger than the countries that used the mRNA shots and have other, more pressing health problems, have simply given up on counting Covid at all.)

Meanwhile, the rest are a mix of many other causes, including diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. How could the mRNA shots cause deaths in so many different ways?

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One plausible explanation is that they may be strongly pro-inflammatory and produce an autoimmune response that becomes harder to downregulate with each additional shot. Some unlucky people may also wind up producing the Sars-Cov-2 spike protein for weeks or even months, far longer than the mRNA vaccine companies predicted - worsening the inflammatory cycle and subjecting themselves to the potential cardiovascular complications of the spike.

No doubt other potential explanations exist. In a world where the mRNA shots had not been anointed humanity’s savior for the last two years, scientists would be diligently exploring them.

Instead we are stuck with side effect reports, a handful of published case studies - almost entirely from outside the United States - and even fewer papers examining potential problems at the cellular level.

As a result, the epidemiological data, especially the national-level death numbers, are more important than ever, because they long predate Covid and cannot be fudged. Assuming Covid vaccinations remain flat or keep declining (and why wouldn’t they?), the trend in all-cause mortality in the next couple of months will be incredibly important.

If the hint in the new data from Australia and Europe becomes more than a hint - if deaths in the mRNA countries finally return to normal - what excuse will the vaccine advocates have? Long Covid was a threat until it wasn’t?

Of course, nothing is guaranteed. If the new data turns out to be only a blip and deaths continue to rise, we’ll be facing a whole different problem.

But the best possible outcome, for vaccine skeptics and the world alike, would be for the good news of the last few days to continue.