127 Comments
User's avatar
Tim Flannery's avatar

Alex, quick question, how many regime change operations has the US orchestrated since 1947? How many have worked out from the US perspective? How many have worked out well from the affected nation's perspective? How did the first regime change in Iran in 1953 work out? Trace that one forward and you get to many Iraqis and Iranians killing each other for 8 years in the 1980s, each mostly armed by the US. I'm sure that the US is not involved in stoking these protests and I'm sure the Western media coverage is actuate. This looks like Ukraine in 2014, how did that one work out? Also, expect the Iranian response if the US gets directly involved to be far more dangerous theIR response in June 2025.

Alex Berenson's avatar

The only people "orchestrating" this are the Iranians.

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

Tim Flannery's avatar

I'm surprised you believe debating the degree of US involvement qualifies as blindness. You may be correct (no US involvement) but that would be unique. I suggest people do some research on the above questions to hone their own vision and perspective.

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

We will see Tim. My $$$ is on Israel and Trump will never allow the mullahs to execute much of anything significant. They have never been this weak. The airfields can easily be taken OUT as we all saw in the 12 day lethality and superiority of US-Israel tag team on Iran defenses did...

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2dEdited
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Tim Flannery's avatar

I guess this is in response to my questions. Your assumptions about my points and what my philosophical point of view are pretty off base. You’re not engaged in a debate I believe is important. Trump, so far, has been much more transparent and effective (shorter term, projecting power) than his predecessor. As I suggested in the post, this one is riskier than Western media is suggesting (particularly for Israel) and we have a very poor track record in these affairs (most recently a terrorist with a trimmed beard running Syria). I’d like more freedom in Iran. That’s happening slowly and own involvement likely won’t advance that. Hopefully, if we reboot the war there, we succeed and everyone (US, my kids, Israelis and Iranians are better off). The pattern of history would suggest taking the other side of that bet. Thanks for reading my post.

DividedUpWorld's avatar

No, I just tied my comment up at the top to hopefully get a response to my question. Sorry for the confusion.

But to just very superficially reply to your top comment, sure, the US gets involved in other people‘s business, it’s what we’ve been doing for what, at least almost 100 years?

Power corrupts, eh?

Ryan Gardner's avatar

I lean libertarian so I get your point because wars only end for the dead.

but i think Trumps words (saber rattling) and the courage of the Iranian people may be able to overthrow the Mullahs without further escalation.

Do you notice how the Mullahs allies are pretty much quiet about this?

Don't kid yourself they saw what happened to Maduro without a shot fired.

Tim Flannery's avatar

Mullahs are a quiet bunch. The Supreme leader has been on his death bed for at least a decade, so, the timing of what I’m suggesting may be a bad strategy is actually pretty good. Our win/loss record in these things is a little worse than the Colorado Rockies last year. I agree that Iranian leadership has likely taken note of VZ. Another way to look at the VZ interpretation by Iran is to combine it with the June attack during negotiations. To the extent they have capacity, I think they are much more prepared and will be much more aggressive in deployment. They have been a society for 6000 years and have endured many battles. Also, their allies have some capacity which is worrisome. Thanks for reading my post.

Brogan12's avatar

The IRANIAN response? With what and how...

Tim Flannery's avatar

Their air defense is functioning now. They have about 200 ballistic missiles. The damage Israel could sustain is troubling. The coverage of the "12 day war" unreported damage that Israel sustained.

Chartertopia's avatar

"worked out" over what time frame and for whom?

Your question is so imprecise that it comes across entirely as rhetorical virtue signalling. You'd come across a lot better if you simply stated your position instead of trying to appear so virtuous.

Tim Flannery's avatar

You could rightly cite sarcasm, a bit of a short cut to limit words and not be heavy handed in argument. Promote thought. Accusing someone of virtue signaling when making a counter point to a premise doesn’t strike me as a great use of the term. Interestingly, many of Alex’s detractors attempted to shut down his work on covid (I refuse to capitalize covid in honor of Alex’s work on the subject). I think you used the term virtue signaling to shut down debate, revealing that you believe yourself to have intellectual and/or moral superiority in your current views. I think questions are a good way to start debates, maybe you prefer preaching. I support that choice. As far as “how did that work out” device, all my examples were analogous which ended poorly for both US interests and the interests of the nations affected. The device was used to avoid writing 20,000 words. Thank you for reading my post.

Nigel vonFlotzenpoddle's avatar

Thank you for your thoughtful posts and in particular your mature measured tone. Would that so many others might also

Chartertopia's avatar

When someone asks questions, not out of curiosity to solicit answers or to start a discussion, but to showcase he already has answers, I call them rhetorical questions whose only purpose is to signal superior virtue and stop discussion. Might as well tack on "end of story, full stop."

You even admit this when you explain that yes, your "how did that work out" was indeed a rhetorical question with a known answer, although you don't call it that, and they sure didn't sound like the kind of curious questions which want further debate. You could easily have stated your answers instead of asking them as uncurious rhetorical questions, but you chose otherwise.

Your even brag about refusing to capitalize a disease name as a point of honor; more virtue signalling. Why not refuse to capitalize washington, dc, or names of politicians you don't like?

Perhaps you have some other name for your process. Out of curiosity then, I ask you what you call it?

Tim Flannery's avatar

Just signaling to Alex that although I disagree with his premise in this particular article, I appreciate and respect his work. My premise that the US hasn’t been great at regime change and we have many observations to analyze. Alex’s article and his assertion that the US is not involved in current Iran protesters and his assumption of operational success is still opened for debate. You haven’t weighted in on this. It’s important debate. I welcome contrary options.

Chartertopia's avatar

Yes, "signalling", and signalling virtue. You could have done it much more simply and clearly.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

The Donroe Doctrine in effect.

The capture of Maduro is looking wiser and wiser every day. The dominoes are falling.

All these rogue states are connected.

For example, for decades, tge Iranians have been building missile factories in Venezuela, under the guise of tractor production. In 2022, they signed a 20-year cooperation agreement with Maduro that included additional arms sales, defense plants, and oil field technology.

The terrorists ecosystem is falling apart.

Bunker Bob's avatar

So is that of the left and the protest industrial complex. You'd be surprised how much was run through Venezuela.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Communist gonna Communist.

We'd already be "Venezuela" if the Ds had their way.

Fred's avatar

Exactly! Came to the comments to say just that. IDK what it will look like, but I do hope that Trump can help the Iranian people, clearly buoyed by what happened in Venezuela. Thank you, Ryan!

DividedUpWorld's avatar

Deeds, not words, we’ll see how much Trump does to help the Iranian people, otherwise he’ll wind up looking like Obama 2.0.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

He hasn't gotten into any wars yet.

In fact, just the opposite, he's been able to diffuse conflict

Mad Dog's avatar

Just remember that Obama did everything he could to prop up this Islamic shithole. Islamic is the operative word. Obama was indifferent to the fact that it's was - and is - a shithole.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Exactly. But, i wouldn't say he was indifferent.

He was an enabler because his true loyalty is to Islam.

I guess I'm raaaaaacist for saying that.

Alan Davis (FlyoverAlinCT)'s avatar

lol - you are my kind of raycissss!

Lee Henderson's avatar

Obama was supporting the Islamic gov there with all he could get away with. He was a fraud !

Steenroid's avatar

Well a shithole is where he came from.

SB Native's avatar

Obama “failed” every chance he got; one can only conclude he’s an Islamist. Michelle hates America so they made a great team.

DividedUpWorld's avatar

Do you people realize that Obamination is a complete utter sociopath?! He fits the definition of pure evil for me:

relentless lying and shameless hypocrisy

narratives of decay death and destruction

no remorse for consequences caused

mocking and disdaining healthy accepted boundaries set by society for generations..

and, smiles with glee getting the coward whores and avoidants to do nothing and let him slither along and be praised by his minion mob marauders...

Mad Dog's avatar

I think that's a reasonable characterization of him. All he ever wanted was power without responsibility.

CMCM's avatar

Obama literally bowed down to their "Supreme Leader". Soon after, he gave them pallets of cash which they used to fund terrorism.

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

Let's NOT forget all the prior $$$ (taxpayer $$$) being given by both the OBAMA and BIDEN admin to the MULLAH's regime. That "allowed" them to stay in power probably more than any other "outside" enabling. That $$$ is now dried up since Jan 20th 2025

ScottyG's avatar

Another NGO cut off😂

Dave's avatar

When fuel, medicine and food cannot be acquired, it is over.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Despite DJT making my ass pucker at times, people don't give him enough credit for high level thinking.

Does anyone believe any other president could pull this off?

How do you keep from engaging in forever wars? By demonstrating the awesome power of the U.S. military, and instilling fear in potential adversaries.

It's entirely possible that he could take down the mullahs in Iran with words alone.

For example it took over a year a year for the Iranian Revolution to succeed.

Im not even sure my favorite president in history, Ronald Reagan, could pull that off. Well maybe if he had the internet.

Decaf's avatar

As to not appreciating everything Trump does, I have my own set of things I gasp at, and it's mostly when he blithely opens a Pandora's Box that no one else would dare touch. However, this is also why I like him—his brazen boldness. Especially once the event is safely in the rearview mirror and things are still moving along.

CMCM's avatar

Trump is the ultimate multitasker. The mainstream media's collective empty heads are constantly spinning and they can't keep up with him. Which makes it all so much more enjoyable to observe.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Exactly how I feel

Decaf's avatar

And he's really been testing me lately on this.:D

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Yup. Although some of it is strategic and its not until later that his moves make sense.

I will say, despite being a buffoon at times, there's not much he's been wrong about over the last 10 years...especially the "big" issues.

Ilene Heller's avatar

He was horrifically wrong about the lockdowns & Operation Warp Speed. That being said, I did vote for him all 3 times.

And I still believe we should not be the world's policeman.

If American soldiers, sailors & airmen start dying in any of these latest hotspots the American people will turn against Trump very quickly.

I'm old enough to remember the newsreels from 1979 -Iranians screaming like banshees, "Death to America." And don't forget the hostages. The Iranians got what they wanted - classic FAFO. So, I have very little sympathy for them.

Decaf's avatar

So true. That's why I usually wait the news cycle out and then some to see where the chips are finally resting. He's very savvy with complex situations.

Fred's avatar
1dEdited

😂 Pucker indeed! But my skepticism always turns out to be misdirected, so far at least.

AG Fairfield's avatar

And water makes it even quicker

Free in Florida's avatar

“….As of now, and for as long as the mullahs remain in charge, Iran is North Korea, a problem for the world to solve….”

The “world” isn’t going to solve anything. But Trump can and will. He is a change agent of epic proportions and for the positive. As I heard in a Newt Gingrich interview the other day, about 10% of the things Trump does drives all of us nuts. But the other 90% is worth it. This would not be happening without the cascade of things that Trump has accomplished in the last year.

It’s laughable and horribly sad to think that either Obama or Biden would have come to the Iranian citizens’ aid. Weak men don’t make for strong, smart, decisive policies or actions. Strong men do. The world should be thankful Trump is the American president. Realpolitik is what’s needed. Trump understands that.

DividedUpWorld's avatar

Hey buddy, guess what, he’s more focused about how he looks in the world stage than how he looks at home. He should crush what’s going on in Minnesota with a level of intolerance and frank distrust of anyone from the left brings into that state much less city of Minneapolis.

It’s time to make the left leave this country, and if they turn around and attack, I have no problem watching hundreds to thousands of bodies dumped in a landfill, just make sure it’s legitimate, self-defense is always a right.

Carolyn Singer's avatar

I believe that Persians have never forgotten their roots and that the women who were removing their hijab showed a bravery that awakened the masses. Never underestimate the power of women or the power of a symbolic gesture, much like refusing to go to the back of the bus was for Rosa Parks. A government that is machine gunning crowds, has lost legitimacy. They have already fallen, they just don’t know it yet.

Frank Lee's avatar

China was heading in this direction until they colluded with American globalist elites in the US government to RELEASE THE VIRUS. Remember the protests in Hong Kong in 2018 and 2019?

Every day of this international news, especially compared to the same during the four miserable years of Joe Globalist Puppet Biden, Trump is looking more and more as the most America and free world consequential President since FDR.

As a student and teacher of the art and science of leadership, it has been clear to me that Trump is a real leader while most of our politicians these days are performative non-leaders. Real leaders take bold actions to solve the most difficult problems and to help achieve higher goals. They have a vision and work toward that vision. They take risks. They take responsibility for the failures and the successes.

Now, Trump is supported by the America First movement and many of those supporters are against the US involvement in foreign conflicts. However, I think they are missing key considerations of the long-term risks from all these long-standing and growing enemies of the US... and also the other consideration of the new opportunities for America should these enemies have regime change to become more friendly with the US.

The old weak leader approach to this foreign policy has been to keep doing the same things that have resulted in nothing positive, and in fact, has likely made things worse. No previous politician would make any bold moves because of the political fallout from a hostile opposition party attempting to stir up fear and anger in the electorate. This is happening to Trump... nothing he does really gets any positive legacy media treatment. But as a real leader... a strong leader... Trump just ignores that and marches forward to implement his vision.

I truly believe that Trump's legacy, if honest historical recounting happens, will put him near the top as our nation's greatest Presidents of all time.

Lia's avatar

North Korea has lasted a long time. I hope the same is not true of the Islamic Republic.

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

Probably since they were able or maybe ALLOWED to have NUKES as reason still as is, and a close proximity to China (big brother)

CMCM's avatar

Sadly, the Islamic Republic has been repressing Iranians for 46 years so far. I'm actually surprised that the Iranian people haven't been able to throw them out until now. It's going to happen this time.

Comment-Tater's avatar

Clickbait headline, shame!

DMC's avatar

Good comparison to China. that's what always comes to mind for me and seems to have worked up until now for Iran.

the kids in china never got the freedom they asked for. Just economic opportunity.

Ilene Heller's avatar

And that economic opportunity is very limited without freedom.

They also got very used to handouts/freebies from the Chinese government.

The older ones that have come here line up with their shopping carts wherever free food is being handed out. They are not just limited to their own neighborhoods. They come to a church in my neighborhood & then get on the subway (with their carts!) to go home. This happens all over NYC.

That is why the CCP remains in power. It gives out just enough free stuff to keep the population docile.

DMC's avatar

Well the people I knew were sales execs factory managers and office people who were doing well

Decaf's avatar

Many are placated by a better economy and its fruits and think its value is higher—or at least good enough—and don't want to risk holding out for the freedoms we have taken for granted, until now.

DMC's avatar
2dEdited

yeah - I have not spent a lot of time over there but I think those freedoms are more abstract to them. Their relationship with the government was more like an unknowable entity. Remote and somewhat sinister but also completely in control. Or at least that was my impression from talking to my associates over there.

Decaf's avatar

Interesting. I can imagine that some things can be too abstract to be valued, especially when people are very pragmatic as a culture, which I imagine may be the case.

DMC's avatar

well said

Michael E Perez's avatar

I think with whatever Trump and Israel has planned it is going to be big. I read Iran is hunting Sky Link terminals

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Well you can think Elon and Starlink as well.

All murderous regimes, being the cowards they are, kill at night. Hence, the importance of shutting down the internet.

But, this technology has acted as a vital lifeline for communication.

"Twitter" defeats Tyranny!

ScottyG's avatar

X marks the spot😉

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Hilarious. Well played

Fred's avatar

I’m still banned on X for posting the truth.

ScottyG's avatar
1dEdited

Fred, I know of older accounts getting reinstated if you appeal. May work for you especially if it was in the “Before Elon Times”.

Dawn Pegis's avatar

Thanks Alex, for admitting 2 wrong predictions. (They were reasoned guesses). YES!! we can PRAY and hope that the entire population of Iran will turn even some of the decisions of military killing them to question that evil course. We hear some generals are defecting. Keep praying and hoping!! If correction is due and can work anywhere, Iran might be a good place. It doesn't have the spiritual cohesion of Poland in late 80's, but it does have cultural cohesion that truly desires freedom to learn and live and THINK! One would hope Venezuela would have some of that. Corruption is so invasive and destructive - and rather quickly. Which is why rooting it out of Minnesota would be a great help. Minnesota is a case of how quickly the Left has co-opted the benevolent Scandinavians to think they can put out a hand of compassion to actual socialist-commies - and then say, that's what 'love' does! What a disastrous stew!!

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

MN is somewhat unique in having just ONE massive urban area that is where most ALL the neo Marxist indoctrinated BLUE votes originate from. The rest of the state is quite moderate and RED. People forget that in the 2024 election Trump had 85% of the total counties in the USA go RED, and all shifted toward the RED compared to the 2020 election. Something like 3,244 counties and 2,749 went RED. Imagine looking down from space and seeing the USA in only the BLUE or RED colors. It would look overwhelmingly RED, and only the large urban areas BLUE in essence. Thank GOD the founding Fathers had the foresight to implement the electoral system in a national ELECTION

Dawn Pegis's avatar

I grew up in Mason City, IA, just south of MN. Similar German/Scandinavian populace. My sister was in Twin Cities for decades. I've spent a lot of time there and with lots of Swedes in Chicago. I saw this transition to wokism first hand. I also have many cousins in Research Triangle area of NC. Mother-in-law and college roommate Tarheels! - a unique 'personality'. All these university adjacent populations have evolved similarly in my lifetime -past 7 decades.

Louise C's avatar

University areas spread blue across states.

Dawn Pegis's avatar

Too often indoctrination factories, rather than classical education. Quite addicted/attached to their 'enlightenment.'

ConcernedCitUSA's avatar

NC is similar. Charlotte and to a smaller extent RDU.

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

Looking closely many states are similar yes. MN is one with the OBVIOUS one area

Rudy's avatar

MN is not so unique. Illinois is essentially red except for Chicago.

Brogan12's avatar
2dEdited

Unique in the sense in MN its just ONE excessively large area of BLUE voters in Minneapolis-St Paul relatively speaking. Most the rest of MN has much smaller cities, but yes all states have a varying degree of relative comparison. As I mentioned above over 85% of the counties in all of the USA went RED in 24 election

John lakeside's avatar

I am hoping that we have a good sense to stay the hell out of it because we are Amping up too many places too quickly, and we are not doing it with a whole bunch of people on board. People are not really very trusting of us at this moment in time, so it all it’s gonna take us for some flashpoint, the trigger, something much more severe Mr. Trump is feeling pretty cocky after his Venezuela expedition but things are not going well at home domestically we are in a precarious position. Ice kills another citizen and we have a real problem on our hands. They are not doing anything to combat the fraud. They’re still picking up immigrants piecemeal it’s not a working program it’s being bundled on a daily basis it will not take much more to reach of flashpoint. There were citizens actually engage. In battle, he needs to really look at that situation closely and see what can be done about calming it down getting waltz and company under indictment get the age of Minnesota under indictment get the mayor of Minneapolis under indictment get Amy Klobuchar, who I believe is right in the thick of a fraud, looked at the congresswoman needs to be placed under indictment. I need to do the long Long rows

bhs66's avatar

John your analysis and your spelling need some work. Calm down, have a beer. Trump is clearly the most transformative president in my lifetime.

bhs66's avatar

I know life’s tough for you John and you long for the halcyon days of the demented auto pen letting in 15 MILLION illegal aliens. Sadly for you John those days are over. So you can keep finding stories about Trump to keep you angry and spun up. Go have a beer John and try and think of something other than Trump!

Louise C's avatar

You know what would calm things down? Minneapolis Police holding illegals in jail who have ICE detainers. Then ICE could pick them up and not have to go into city neighborhoods.

John lakeside's avatar

Minneapolis sanctuary city policy does not allow for that. Minneapolis requires warrants

Dr Robert Mandraccia's avatar

Iran, unlike North Korea, has oil and , along with Venezuela, has supplied China with over 70 % of its oil. Choking this off will , at least temporarily, slow down Chinas AI ambitions and possible war on Taiwan. Lets hope for the best for the Iranians.

cpk2001's avatar

I have known many Iranians who fled when the Shah fell. I respect the people and abhore the government of suppression and the U S politicians who have turned their heads to the suppression Victory and blessings to the people of Iran and maybe a little help from our old friend John Wells