Do we really have no hangover after the largest economic orgy in history - more than $10 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2020 and 2021? The charts below suggest we're still just drunk.
I went to the supermarket yesterday. I made the most economical purchases possible, basing almost everything on the supermarket's weekly circular.
Pre-Covid the average cash register receipt showed approximately $80/week for a family of two (myself & my 90+ year old father). Now? I cannot get out of the store for less than $110--and I'm buying LESS.
I've seen this movie before: because I remember the 1970s I don't like this movie in reruns.
I'm really damned FED UP with pinching every penny and economizing and down-sizing and all the other methods of thrift and skinflintery.
Rio, it's important that you learn to get by with less while we funnel our (recently borrowed from China) cash to Ukraine. To uphold the American way, you see........
Of course it does; get it off the books of our treasury and then distribute to all the swamp creatures you have seen over there shaking Zelensky paw. Money laundering in your face.
Jimmy Cater destroyed our economy. It took a great leader, Ronald Reagan, to get us back to being a prosperous and strong nation. We have the same situation today, only worse. And the stong patriot who could save us is under attack by a corrupt justice department and a man with oatmeal for brains in charge. I hope these people throwing around the possibilities of another Civil War fully grasp what they're saying. We won't survive another Civil War. We need that great leader at the helm, not in prison.
I completely agree. Food prices have become ridiculous and we don't splurge. When you put that with the shrinkage of products and the complete crash in quality, it is unbearable. Has anyone else noticed that the taste of anything that is premade has changed? Not just the taste, the color and texture as well...
Yes Amy I have. I thought it was just me. I bought a jar of peanut butter.....same store brand I've bought for yrs.....tasted off so thought maybe it was just a bad batch. Returned it a few weeks later........new jar was no better. Afraid to eat it. I'm noticing it more and more. I don't eat out, I cook everything at home and I've never pinched my food budget so hard in my life. Single...was able to keep it at $68. a Month for food, detergent, etc. now it's $90.+ a month . I can't cut any further . and forget clothes, hair cuts, or anything else..
Look at what people are putting in their carts. I've noticed a lot less junk food, chips, candy, desserts, etc. I know I'm not buying that anymore. I can bake from scratch if sweets are needed. The only thing that's done is kept my bill fairly steady - so far. I started seeds for the fall garden yesterday so maybe that produce will help. I'm happy I keep a stocked pantry and can wait for sales when there are any.
Don't you see Rosie? Wall Street is doing fine and Jamie Diamond is happy with how things are going, so everything is just great. Eat your Spam and keep quiet you ingrate.
Yes but, Rio you need to “lower your expectations”, as the pundit told us. Remember we’ve had 5-6 million illegal aliens enter this country in the last couple years and about half of them have already had babies, brand new US citizens that we must support. And they are still pouring in by the multi-thousands per day. So tighten up your belt because you haven’t seen nothin yet!
Reminder that the roots of the inflation we're still dealing with are inextricably tied to the draconian risk-reduction measures and mandates enforced to foster the illusion that “erring on the side of caution” justified gross usurpations of power and violations of human rights. You cannot just turn off the economy and turn it back on. There are consequences, and the consequences multiply the longer you keep it turned off.
"The Obama administration’s stimulus package to respond to the 2008 recession was $787 billion. In a span of two months in the summer of 2021, the U.S. spent $2.4 trillion on the pandemic. That's more than the GDPs of all but six other nations."
I think you can argue they had the responses to the 2008 Great Recession and COVID backwards.
Should have spent more in the deeper multi-caused, pervasive 2008 Great Recession (Krugman wanted that), and spent much less on the singular-caused COVID event. COVID can be seen as a one issue event. Once they figured it out, we were able to get back up and running relatively quickly. There were no deep issues or Systemic Risks lurking like icebergs like MBSs or Credit Default Swaps pervading throughout Wall Street to Main Street. The US Economy was relatively healthy in January 2020.
But the irony here is that the Keynesians, Krugmans, Democrats wanted their redo for the 2008 response and went all out. COVID was the Left’s chance to prove once-and-for-all they are geniuses and that Keynesian economics is brilliant.
But economics is the dismal science. Different circumstances, different generations, different eras in human history call for different responses.
J. Powell and inflation are the reason why I started my substack a year ago. When Powell said, "The Fed is Going to Bring Pain," that's when I knew things were going to get worse before getting better:
Over the last year or so, I've done some serious reading into the Fed and I don't think alot of American's know how it really controls everything, or really how we got here! From the Civil War all the way to here, it's always been about the Fed. Here's a background to American History:
That really makes one think about who's really in control here? Us or them. Who's really the bad guy here? And who really cares about the future of this country?
Feb 2021 “That is what I think is the big concern right now, the unanchoring of inflation expectations. An important element in inflation are wages and people getting higher wages during a time of still very high unemployment and still a lot of slack in the economy,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“That would be a sign that an inflation process has begun, but we see no indication of that whatsoever. What we see is the perception of inflation being fueled by energy prices.”
(May 2021) “I don’t believe that inflation will be an issue. But if it becomes an issue, we have tools to address it,” Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “It’s spread out quite evenly over eight to 10 years. So, the boost to demand is moderate,” she said of the proposed spending.
“We remain positive but once we get to the end of this year and early next year, and we’ve worked through the supply chain bottlenecks and demand has normalized, as the economy opened up, we don’t think it’s a sustained source of inflation over the medium term,” said Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Uruci expects core inflation to reach 2.3% by May but then it could be below 2% in the second half of the year.
End the FED? There has never even been adequate traction to Audit the Fed! (Remember that Ron Paul effort?) They seem immune from everything. An audit would be more-than-illuminating.
You're right that inflation is the preferred state, but not for the reasons you set forth. Inflation favors debtors and investors who are leveraged; i.e. the Government and Wall Street. Like most Government policies, Federal Reserve policies are designed to benefit these two groups.
Inflation is the friend of the long-term debtor since it reduces the value of the outstanding balance of a debt over time. This is essentially how the U.S. Government got out from under the debt from WWII.
Inflation is also the friend of those who hold investments, whether stocks or physical assets, such as real estate. The value of these assets rises with inflation, while any debt taken on to finance them is reduced.
Inflation is the enemy of the working class, since they generally do not hold assets and debt that they owe is usually high interest rate revolving credit, such as credit cards. The rates on this debt is also more easily adjustable. Wages do rise in an inflationary environment, but rarely keep up with inflation.
On the flip side, wages also rarely deflate at the same rate as deflation, while the value of long term debt is increased and investment assets decline in value.
That is why the Federal Reserve pursues and inflationary policy. It is only when inflation gets out of hand that monetary policy is changed to rein it back in to around 2%, just so the proles won't recognize that they are being screwed.
What is bolloxing up the program now is that, as your correspondent pointed out, every other Government agency is pursuing an inflationary policy, while the Fed is trying to rein inflation in. Raising interest rates doesn't help much if the Federal Government is still spending like a drunken sailor.
This is exactly how a very successful member of our family explained it to me in the 80's. Almost verbatim. He was an investment banker whose work spanned from the mid-20's till his passing. It's also what my father said years before that when I was a hormonally challenged cognitively challenged teen.
The government inflation numbers are bunk because they eliminated housing costs... something no other OECD country does. When you add housing cost inflation the actual rates of inflation pummeling the average working American has been double-digits since Biden took charge. Unemployment numbers from the government are another pile-o-crap because they include part-time work and don't correct for people working multiple jobs. Also, they don't account for regional labor surplus problems... which happen to be in the same places where more Americans are getting destroyed by inflation.
Credit card debt is spiraling out of control as families cannot make ends meet with the cost of rent, gas, energy and food.
Maybe I'm just too 'old school', but I see a huge correlation between us printing money and inflation. We used to double the money supply every 11 years or so, but that ramped up bigtime during covid.
M2 Dec 2019: $15,320B
M2 May 2023: $20,889B
For every 3 dollars in existence in 2019, now there's an extra dollar floating around. Because of this, you'd expect prices to increase roughly 25% as well!
The Obama administration’s stimulus package to respond to the 2008 recession was $787 billion. In a span of two months in the summer of 2021, the U.S. spent $2.4 trillion on the pandemic. That's more than the GDPs of all but six other nations.
And Biden wants to 'fold' those expenditures into the 'regular' budget -- exactly like Obama folded Bush's 'emergency' spending into the regular budget.
How many dollars do you think we print in 2025? 2030? 2050? Can you imagine government having enough money that they cut spending voluntarily?
There is developing a very large underground economy, I see it in my particular area (not a big city). It is especially prevalent in the under 35 crowd, who have no belief or faith in the government, either political party (all viewed as corrupt and dishonest), and who have elected to remain separate from it all. I don't know where this will end up.
I got my homeowners insurance bill today. It's gone from $1618 to $2069, a 27.9% increase. Since 2020, it's gone up 66.6%. Think that's an omen?
I don't know the exact increase amountsand percentages for my car insurance but it's up around $80 every 6 months for the past 2 years.
Everyone I know is having the same experience no matter what state they live in, and that's when their insurer hasn't stopped writing policies in their state. Shopping around doesn't provide much, if any, relief. Inflation has NOT gone down in the insurance market..
I emailed my insurance agent this week to basically ask “WTF?” about my car insurance rates, which have increased by more than 50% in the last two years (with no change in my coverage, no accidents etc). She said it is an industry-wide increase.
As Phil Gramm (and partners) book, "The Myth of Income Inequality" pointed out, the inflation numbers have some deep problems, beyond the "core" figures.
The bigger time bomb is interest payments to service the debt racked up during the spending binge. It will soon top 100-percent of GDP, and keep soaring. With most federal spending on autopilot, this will drive debt higher when a national emergency (a real one, as opposed to Covid) hits.
Alex, the reason why government likes inflation is because it allows them to steal purchasing power without having to directly tax voters. They choose a level of 2% NOT because it allows them to "avoid deflation" but because it is low enough that most people won't complain too much. If they just steal a little each year, it is less likely to cause voter discontent.
Oh, and deflation does NOT cause people to hold gold. Inflation is what causes people to hold gold. Gold would drop in price with deflation (just like all other goods) so there is less value in holding gold in a deflationary environment. Where you want to hold gold is when the currency is being inflated because gold holds inherent value and therefore the price rises with inflation, unlike cash. In a deflationary environment, you may choose to hold cash but you always have the incentive to invest in businesses so that you can gain additional value. Deflation is nothing to fear. Unless you are the government and you are interested in stealing purchasing power from regular people. Deflation makes regular working people richer as they can buy more goods and services with their wages. Inflation does the opposite. Inflation makes middle class, working people poorer while it enriches the government.
The aim for energy should always be cheap and abundant. When filling the coffers of Chinese green energy companies become the primary driver, prices will go up quickly. This is before I even mention all the intermittent energy sources being added to the grid. Taken altogether, it shows how completely incoherent our energy policy is.
Everyone should read The Creature from Jekyll Island-about the Fed
Throw in some Milton Friedman, Ben Graham-the Intelligent Investor, and top it off with some Art Laffer-
These group is clueless-Modern Monetary Theory is TRASH-this will get worse-everyone keeps hoping for a soft landing BUT will NEVER happen without opening our fossil fuel industry, stopping the flow of illegals living off the system along tons of people here that already and stop funding dumb endless useless wars that benefit the military industrial complex- we also need to stop funding the teachers union that keep our students stupid-and they are!!
Everyone should also watch Waiting for Superman about the public featuring Randi Weingarten-an oldie but goodie AND
Recession is still very much in play. Massive consumer debt. Commercial real estate about to crater. Banks facing stress. Corporate profits coming down. Stock market overvalued.
Food costs are going to get insane in a few months. Grain shipments from Ukraine were just cut, and given destruction of many terminal facilities, will be slow to come back, and the Ukraine war has also meant that vast amounts of farmland have become unusable.
An even bigger impact is going to be what's been happening to China lately though. (Which there's strangely been a complete lack of comment about in US mainstream media.)
China was already suffering from a historic crop failure, *before* the typhoon-driven flooding in the north of the country. I haven't seen any stats, but there have to have been tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of hectares of crops destroyed. I expect it will take a while to work its way through to the consumer level, but there's going to be enormous pressure on food supply and thus prices in the very near future.
How ANY Republican running cannot simply WIN in 24 on this ONE premise is hard to imagine given what we KNOW. "Are you better off now than you were 3-4 years ago" How is this not a landslide WIN with such an overtly obvious cause.
The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that price is always sticky upwards. when base prices rise because of inflation, they never fall back to the base price again and the pundits call this a new normal which is following the sticky upward proverb. This simply means that people who ate steak. now eat hamburger until their income rises enough to tentavilyn sample steak again, keeping the sticky upward cost step. The "New Normal" is with us until the next one. Hey Omaha, you can now unload that stringy steak at a improved pric.
I went to the supermarket yesterday. I made the most economical purchases possible, basing almost everything on the supermarket's weekly circular.
Pre-Covid the average cash register receipt showed approximately $80/week for a family of two (myself & my 90+ year old father). Now? I cannot get out of the store for less than $110--and I'm buying LESS.
I've seen this movie before: because I remember the 1970s I don't like this movie in reruns.
I'm really damned FED UP with pinching every penny and economizing and down-sizing and all the other methods of thrift and skinflintery.
And I'd most fed up with the LIES.
Rio, it's important that you learn to get by with less while we funnel our (recently borrowed from China) cash to Ukraine. To uphold the American way, you see........
Has anyone checked to see if any of our money that goes to Ukraine somehow gets funneled back into the Biden crime family coffers? Just wondering....
Of course it does; get it off the books of our treasury and then distribute to all the swamp creatures you have seen over there shaking Zelensky paw. Money laundering in your face.
Uh...........that's racist!
Are you sure? I thought it was climate change.
No, it's transphobic. Everything is transphobic.
Foreign aid is quite simply-- money laundering.
Does the sun come up in the east?
Jimmy Cater destroyed our economy. It took a great leader, Ronald Reagan, to get us back to being a prosperous and strong nation. We have the same situation today, only worse. And the stong patriot who could save us is under attack by a corrupt justice department and a man with oatmeal for brains in charge. I hope these people throwing around the possibilities of another Civil War fully grasp what they're saying. We won't survive another Civil War. We need that great leader at the helm, not in prison.
At least Carter hired Volker. Biden will do no such thing.
It's the American Way!
Yeah Rosie it’s for the greater good of Ukraine in order to save Democracy. Don’t be so damn selfish.
I’m with you, Rosie!
I too, remember the ‘70’s
I keep telling everyone how bad that was and the money printing then (Carter) was nothing compared to what was just done (Biden)
That chart pretty much proves it except I think the next uptick is going to be significantly worse
I completely agree. Food prices have become ridiculous and we don't splurge. When you put that with the shrinkage of products and the complete crash in quality, it is unbearable. Has anyone else noticed that the taste of anything that is premade has changed? Not just the taste, the color and texture as well...
Yes Amy I have. I thought it was just me. I bought a jar of peanut butter.....same store brand I've bought for yrs.....tasted off so thought maybe it was just a bad batch. Returned it a few weeks later........new jar was no better. Afraid to eat it. I'm noticing it more and more. I don't eat out, I cook everything at home and I've never pinched my food budget so hard in my life. Single...was able to keep it at $68. a Month for food, detergent, etc. now it's $90.+ a month . I can't cut any further . and forget clothes, hair cuts, or anything else..
I noticed paper products have not been the same since COVID; napkins suck and bounty paper towels are no longer the “quicker picker upper”
Food quality has gone down hill fast. 3rd world here we come.
Perhaps Schwab and Gates are putting bugs in the food.
Look at what people are putting in their carts. I've noticed a lot less junk food, chips, candy, desserts, etc. I know I'm not buying that anymore. I can bake from scratch if sweets are needed. The only thing that's done is kept my bill fairly steady - so far. I started seeds for the fall garden yesterday so maybe that produce will help. I'm happy I keep a stocked pantry and can wait for sales when there are any.
Hard to justify a box of Nutter Butters at $8.50.
Seriously!
And Cheetos at $7!
CNN took a break from its Bidenomics bullshit today: "US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago"
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/11/economy/inflation-rate-spending/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_content=2023-08-11T21%3A58%3A05&utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social
Wait for the winter heating bills.
Don't you see Rosie? Wall Street is doing fine and Jamie Diamond is happy with how things are going, so everything is just great. Eat your Spam and keep quiet you ingrate.
Yes but, Rio you need to “lower your expectations”, as the pundit told us. Remember we’ve had 5-6 million illegal aliens enter this country in the last couple years and about half of them have already had babies, brand new US citizens that we must support. And they are still pouring in by the multi-thousands per day. So tighten up your belt because you haven’t seen nothin yet!
110/80=137.5%=Bidenomics
30,000 at last count. Canada medical services:
Sorry we can’t schedule your much-needed surgery, but remember how nicely Edward G Robinson checked out in “Soylent Green”?
Is there a link for that … I would be eager to keep up to date on this horrifying situation. thanks
Not that I can cite. Like Chicago shootings, I’m sure you can sleuth it out.
You gotta get rid of the useless eaters somehow.
Reminder that the roots of the inflation we're still dealing with are inextricably tied to the draconian risk-reduction measures and mandates enforced to foster the illusion that “erring on the side of caution” justified gross usurpations of power and violations of human rights. You cannot just turn off the economy and turn it back on. There are consequences, and the consequences multiply the longer you keep it turned off.
https://www.euphoricrecall.net/p/je-me-souviens-i-remember
"The Obama administration’s stimulus package to respond to the 2008 recession was $787 billion. In a span of two months in the summer of 2021, the U.S. spent $2.4 trillion on the pandemic. That's more than the GDPs of all but six other nations."
They found the 'off' switch but didn't realize there's no 'on' switch.
I think you can argue they had the responses the 2008 Great Recession and COVID reversed.
Should have spen more in 2008, and apent much less on the singular event COVID response.
To clarify my mess of a comment:
I think you can argue they had the responses to the 2008 Great Recession and COVID backwards.
Should have spent more in the deeper multi-caused, pervasive 2008 Great Recession (Krugman wanted that), and spent much less on the singular-caused COVID event. COVID can be seen as a one issue event. Once they figured it out, we were able to get back up and running relatively quickly. There were no deep issues or Systemic Risks lurking like icebergs like MBSs or Credit Default Swaps pervading throughout Wall Street to Main Street. The US Economy was relatively healthy in January 2020.
But the irony here is that the Keynesians, Krugmans, Democrats wanted their redo for the 2008 response and went all out. COVID was the Left’s chance to prove once-and-for-all they are geniuses and that Keynesian economics is brilliant.
But economics is the dismal science. Different circumstances, different generations, different eras in human history call for different responses.
They will ALWAYS find an excuse to print away the value of your savings and labor. Plan accordingly.
Edit: At the risk of spoiling my own upcoming article, check out Jerome Powell answer "why 2% inflation"?
https://twitter.com/ChrisBlec/status/1689491538932277248
J. Powell and inflation are the reason why I started my substack a year ago. When Powell said, "The Fed is Going to Bring Pain," that's when I knew things were going to get worse before getting better:
https://unorthodoxy.substack.com/p/the-federal-reserves-plan-for-inflation
Over the last year or so, I've done some serious reading into the Fed and I don't think alot of American's know how it really controls everything, or really how we got here! From the Civil War all the way to here, it's always been about the Fed. Here's a background to American History:
https://unorthodoxy.substack.com/p/why-esoteric-philosophy-is-vital-329
"There's a reason history is taught to us as kids when we can't do anything, versus when we're adults when we can actually do something."
Lastly, my friend Sane Fran had this very good post yesterday that made me really think.
There's over 300 million americans (300,000,000). Yet, there's 545 people (0.0001818%) that make up the laws that impact us severely.
The reason for inflation: these 545 people.
The reason for the increased spending: these 545 people.
https://sanefrancisco.substack.com/p/were-talking-000018167
That really makes one think about who's really in control here? Us or them. Who's really the bad guy here? And who really cares about the future of this country?
https://unorthodoxy.substack.com/p/who-are-the-bad-guys
It would be interesting to know the net worth of each of these 545 people.
this is why the HOR should be tripled to about 1300, moved to St Louis or something.
Ron Paul was always talking about the Fed....now I know why.
RON PAUL 2024!!!!!!!
END THE FED!
Check out some of the expert 'takes' on inflation from last year:
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/inflation-and-you
Feb 2021 “That is what I think is the big concern right now, the unanchoring of inflation expectations. An important element in inflation are wages and people getting higher wages during a time of still very high unemployment and still a lot of slack in the economy,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“That would be a sign that an inflation process has begun, but we see no indication of that whatsoever. What we see is the perception of inflation being fueled by energy prices.”
----------------------------------------
(March 2021) Is Inflation Coming? Hell, No
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/03/30/is-inflation-coming-hell-no/?sh=605d2d91402a
---------------------------------------
(May 2021) “I don’t believe that inflation will be an issue. But if it becomes an issue, we have tools to address it,” Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “It’s spread out quite evenly over eight to 10 years. So, the boost to demand is moderate,” she said of the proposed spending.
--------------------------------------
1000% agree!
The simple fact is that they target 2% inflation because they think that's the most they can steal without us really noticing.
And my personal favorite:
April 2021
“We remain positive but once we get to the end of this year and early next year, and we’ve worked through the supply chain bottlenecks and demand has normalized, as the economy opened up, we don’t think it’s a sustained source of inflation over the medium term,” said Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Uruci expects core inflation to reach 2.3% by May but then it could be below 2% in the second half of the year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/market-braces-for-key-inflation-report-tuesday-that-may-test-the-feds-mettle.html
End the FED? There has never even been adequate traction to Audit the Fed! (Remember that Ron Paul effort?) They seem immune from everything. An audit would be more-than-illuminating.
That Ron Paul effort was sabotaged at the last minute by Bernie Sanders............
FJB
You're right that inflation is the preferred state, but not for the reasons you set forth. Inflation favors debtors and investors who are leveraged; i.e. the Government and Wall Street. Like most Government policies, Federal Reserve policies are designed to benefit these two groups.
Inflation is the friend of the long-term debtor since it reduces the value of the outstanding balance of a debt over time. This is essentially how the U.S. Government got out from under the debt from WWII.
Inflation is also the friend of those who hold investments, whether stocks or physical assets, such as real estate. The value of these assets rises with inflation, while any debt taken on to finance them is reduced.
Inflation is the enemy of the working class, since they generally do not hold assets and debt that they owe is usually high interest rate revolving credit, such as credit cards. The rates on this debt is also more easily adjustable. Wages do rise in an inflationary environment, but rarely keep up with inflation.
On the flip side, wages also rarely deflate at the same rate as deflation, while the value of long term debt is increased and investment assets decline in value.
That is why the Federal Reserve pursues and inflationary policy. It is only when inflation gets out of hand that monetary policy is changed to rein it back in to around 2%, just so the proles won't recognize that they are being screwed.
What is bolloxing up the program now is that, as your correspondent pointed out, every other Government agency is pursuing an inflationary policy, while the Fed is trying to rein inflation in. Raising interest rates doesn't help much if the Federal Government is still spending like a drunken sailor.
This is exactly how a very successful member of our family explained it to me in the 80's. Almost verbatim. He was an investment banker whose work spanned from the mid-20's till his passing. It's also what my father said years before that when I was a hormonally challenged cognitively challenged teen.
Excellent comment.
The government inflation numbers are bunk because they eliminated housing costs... something no other OECD country does. When you add housing cost inflation the actual rates of inflation pummeling the average working American has been double-digits since Biden took charge. Unemployment numbers from the government are another pile-o-crap because they include part-time work and don't correct for people working multiple jobs. Also, they don't account for regional labor surplus problems... which happen to be in the same places where more Americans are getting destroyed by inflation.
Credit card debt is spiraling out of control as families cannot make ends meet with the cost of rent, gas, energy and food.
Quid Pro Joe is to blame.
Maybe I'm just too 'old school', but I see a huge correlation between us printing money and inflation. We used to double the money supply every 11 years or so, but that ramped up bigtime during covid.
M2 Dec 2019: $15,320B
M2 May 2023: $20,889B
For every 3 dollars in existence in 2019, now there's an extra dollar floating around. Because of this, you'd expect prices to increase roughly 25% as well!
Edit for link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
The Obama administration’s stimulus package to respond to the 2008 recession was $787 billion. In a span of two months in the summer of 2021, the U.S. spent $2.4 trillion on the pandemic. That's more than the GDPs of all but six other nations.
And Biden wants to 'fold' those expenditures into the 'regular' budget -- exactly like Obama folded Bush's 'emergency' spending into the regular budget.
How many dollars do you think we print in 2025? 2030? 2050? Can you imagine government having enough money that they cut spending voluntarily?
There is developing a very large underground economy, I see it in my particular area (not a big city). It is especially prevalent in the under 35 crowd, who have no belief or faith in the government, either political party (all viewed as corrupt and dishonest), and who have elected to remain separate from it all. I don't know where this will end up.
You can go here and download the Excel sheet to see a list of all the Labor Surplus Areas. https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/lsa
NJ is a study in wealthy crunchy coastal progressives and everyone else. Unfortunately the poor in NJ vote for their destroyers.
I got my homeowners insurance bill today. It's gone from $1618 to $2069, a 27.9% increase. Since 2020, it's gone up 66.6%. Think that's an omen?
I don't know the exact increase amountsand percentages for my car insurance but it's up around $80 every 6 months for the past 2 years.
Everyone I know is having the same experience no matter what state they live in, and that's when their insurer hasn't stopped writing policies in their state. Shopping around doesn't provide much, if any, relief. Inflation has NOT gone down in the insurance market..
I emailed my insurance agent this week to basically ask “WTF?” about my car insurance rates, which have increased by more than 50% in the last two years (with no change in my coverage, no accidents etc). She said it is an industry-wide increase.
As Phil Gramm (and partners) book, "The Myth of Income Inequality" pointed out, the inflation numbers have some deep problems, beyond the "core" figures.
The bigger time bomb is interest payments to service the debt racked up during the spending binge. It will soon top 100-percent of GDP, and keep soaring. With most federal spending on autopilot, this will drive debt higher when a national emergency (a real one, as opposed to Covid) hits.
Alex, the reason why government likes inflation is because it allows them to steal purchasing power without having to directly tax voters. They choose a level of 2% NOT because it allows them to "avoid deflation" but because it is low enough that most people won't complain too much. If they just steal a little each year, it is less likely to cause voter discontent.
Oh, and deflation does NOT cause people to hold gold. Inflation is what causes people to hold gold. Gold would drop in price with deflation (just like all other goods) so there is less value in holding gold in a deflationary environment. Where you want to hold gold is when the currency is being inflated because gold holds inherent value and therefore the price rises with inflation, unlike cash. In a deflationary environment, you may choose to hold cash but you always have the incentive to invest in businesses so that you can gain additional value. Deflation is nothing to fear. Unless you are the government and you are interested in stealing purchasing power from regular people. Deflation makes regular working people richer as they can buy more goods and services with their wages. Inflation does the opposite. Inflation makes middle class, working people poorer while it enriches the government.
Only six percent Inflation? Among the things I buy, it's well over 10%. More like 15%.
inflation numbers are Federal Magic. At least that's what the mild cynics call delusional bull5hit.
The aim for energy should always be cheap and abundant. When filling the coffers of Chinese green energy companies become the primary driver, prices will go up quickly. This is before I even mention all the intermittent energy sources being added to the grid. Taken altogether, it shows how completely incoherent our energy policy is.
Everyone should read The Creature from Jekyll Island-about the Fed
Throw in some Milton Friedman, Ben Graham-the Intelligent Investor, and top it off with some Art Laffer-
These group is clueless-Modern Monetary Theory is TRASH-this will get worse-everyone keeps hoping for a soft landing BUT will NEVER happen without opening our fossil fuel industry, stopping the flow of illegals living off the system along tons of people here that already and stop funding dumb endless useless wars that benefit the military industrial complex- we also need to stop funding the teachers union that keep our students stupid-and they are!!
Everyone should also watch Waiting for Superman about the public featuring Randi Weingarten-an oldie but goodie AND
The Shadow World voiced by Stanley Tucci on PBS-
Our leaders are SPINELESS
you said Randi Weingarten and I had to down 3 Tums...
Core inflation, yadda yadda inflation? Grocery and gas prices are not up 9% but 50? Yogurt, meat, eggs, gasoline are all up over 50%.
Inflation is out of control. The bidenistas want to stay in power, the dinosaur media lies about everything from Devon Archer to the Iran deal.
All a big lie.
Astonishing the average Dem voted for this and will again. Ya just can't FIX stupid
Recession is still very much in play. Massive consumer debt. Commercial real estate about to crater. Banks facing stress. Corporate profits coming down. Stock market overvalued.
"But there is nothing to see here!" "Not true" says your president Biden.
Food costs are going to get insane in a few months. Grain shipments from Ukraine were just cut, and given destruction of many terminal facilities, will be slow to come back, and the Ukraine war has also meant that vast amounts of farmland have become unusable.
An even bigger impact is going to be what's been happening to China lately though. (Which there's strangely been a complete lack of comment about in US mainstream media.)
China was already suffering from a historic crop failure, *before* the typhoon-driven flooding in the north of the country. I haven't seen any stats, but there have to have been tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of hectares of crops destroyed. I expect it will take a while to work its way through to the consumer level, but there's going to be enormous pressure on food supply and thus prices in the very near future.
How ANY Republican running cannot simply WIN in 24 on this ONE premise is hard to imagine given what we KNOW. "Are you better off now than you were 3-4 years ago" How is this not a landslide WIN with such an overtly obvious cause.
because they ain't in control of the vote counting?
ya know Lysander you bring up probably the most important consideration going into 24 that matters. is 24 already decided is a question for sure!
I believe that, too.
The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that price is always sticky upwards. when base prices rise because of inflation, they never fall back to the base price again and the pundits call this a new normal which is following the sticky upward proverb. This simply means that people who ate steak. now eat hamburger until their income rises enough to tentavilyn sample steak again, keeping the sticky upward cost step. The "New Normal" is with us until the next one. Hey Omaha, you can now unload that stringy steak at a improved pric.
100% intentional to further the greater 2030 agenda. We are only in mid 23