I am told the Trafalgar poll for New Jersey showing Murphy (D) only 4 points up on Ciatarelli (R) matches non-public polling data. Trafalgar leans right but has generally been better than other pollsters in the last two cycles.
Undecideds tend to break for the challenger (Ciatarelli), so if this number is right he has a legitimate chance. Still, NJ is a deep blue state, and even if Murphy picks up 25% of the undecideds he will hold on.
But hey, the Jets won yesterday, so anything is possible.
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