Dead heat in NJ as of this morning

Anyone who says they know who will win is lying. The 88% reported number is wrong, too. It’s much closer to 100%.

I looked county-by-county late last night and only a few thousand votes remain to be counted. It is not clear if they are all mail-in, in which case Murphy will probably pull ahead, or a mix of mail-in and a few districts that didn’t report from last night, in which case Ciatarelli May hold on.

In any case this is not the Pennsylvania situation from last year, where Trump’s Wednesday morning lead was clearly in great jeopardy because so many mail-in votes remained to be counted.

Whether or not Murphy squeaks out a win, this and the Virginia race are devastating results for anyone who believes restrictive Covid measures and mandates have strong support. The Democrats have lost roughly 15 percentage points in 12 months.

Newsom’s win in California in September - which drove the White House to become even more aggressive on vaccine mandates - was clearly an outlier. I hope the Democrats will see that. Immediately.