Why the Iran war is so tricky

Some of you may read this and think it shows why we needed to attack preemptively. Others may think it shows how risky our decision was. Either way, understanding the state of play is key.

It’s not just about the Strait of Hormuz.

Here’s a slightly more detailed version of a thread I just posted on X.

URGENT: What they’re not telling you (because they don’t want to scare you).

Iran can ALREADY make a nuke with its current uranium stock. Depending on its engineering skill, this would explode either as a subcritical dirty bomb (killing thousands and leaving swaths of Tel Aviv or Manhattan uninhabitable for decades) or a Hiroshima-sized nuke (killing hundreds of thousands and likely leading us to retaliate with nuclear strikes that would destroy Iran)…

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(The truth. Even if you’d rather not hear it… and I’d rather not write it.)

And if you’d prefer a one-time donation

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If it makes a bomb, Iran will not know how big it may be until it detonates. Neither will anyone else. But once the bomb is made, it is largely undetectable: enriched uranium does not decay and leave a radioactive signature the way plutonium does. We could try to find it by looking for very dense material, but that’s not easy. A van could carry it. Certainly a small truck...

Enriching uranium is complex and expensive and requires large factories and carefully calibrated centrifuges. Converting UF6 gas to UO2 metal is a trivial chemistry problem, though fluorine is somewhat toxic so you need reasonably skilled engineers and a chemical factory or a least a midsized lab. Iran has lots of both...

Iran has successfully enriched several hundred kilograms of uranium to 60 percent U-235 (the fissile isotope of uranium). Natural uranium is about 0.7 percent U-235. At 60 percent, it is possible to use high explosive to smash pieces of uranium metal close enough together to reach criticality — the level at which U-235 fissions into lighter atoms AND releases more neutrons to continue the reaction…

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(It probably won’t be this big. But it’ll still be big enough.)

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From a weapons design point of view, 90 percent or more enrichment is preferable, as it will lead to a reaction that lasts longer and much higher yields (that is, much bigger bombs), but 60 percent enriched uranium will work, no question. The physics on this are very well known and have been for generations, as is the shape of enriched uranium metal and high explosive required. Again, the hard part is enrichment, not bomb design…

Iran knows where its canisters of enriched uranium gas are located. We don’t, not exactly. We think they're under the enrichment site at Ishafan. Assuming we're correct, getting to them would require a LARGE special forces operation, likely protected by conventional forces…

This would be a VERY dangerous operation, even with complete air superiority. We would be sending in soldiers under fire into a partly collapsed underground complex to remove heavy canisters of toxic and radioactive gas. The complex may be booby-trapped, we don't know...

The canisters may be booby-trapped, or protected by guards willing to commit suicide to defend them, we don't know. We can't practice this mission in the way we practiced grabbing Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro or killing Osama bin Laden, this is levels - not a level - more complex and dangerous...

Iran could have made this bomb before. It didn’t. It hoped the THREAT of doing so would deter a US strike. It was wrong. We killed its top leader. We went to war. The rational response is for its new leaders to demand an ACTUAL weapon or a peace treaty. Not a ceasefire...

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(Fact check: true)

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If we agree to a ceasefire to remove pressure from the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is likely to try to make a bomb IMMEDIATELY. Again, doing so is the only rational response, as we have demonstrated that its mere possession of enriched uranium will not deter us...

As long as we continue to control Iranian airspace, we can make sure the enriched uranium stays where it is (assuming it is where we think it is). But the Iranians will continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the world will face actual oil shortages soon...

This is why everyone who thinks Trump has an easy way out here is wrong. The Iranians don’t have one lever, they have two, and the two are mutually reinforcing. It’s not status quo ante if we back off, it’s Iran with a bomb.

We are in a VERY tough spot.

Enjoy your morning.

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(Why wait? One nuclear bomb could ruin your whole day!)

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Again, one can view the fact that Iran is so close to a bomb as an argument either for or against Trump’s preemptive strikes. But hiding the risks here serves no one.