UPDATE: Iran fires missiles at a US base in Qatar - but gives advance warning

Iran - at least for now - seems not to want a war (or knows it cannot win one) and doesn't plan to respond in force. Credit where it's due, if it holds this looks like a YUGE win for Trump and Israel.

Well. President Trump appears to have rolled sevens again.¹

Even as I published the article that just hit your inboxes, Iran had fired missiles at the giant American air base in Qatar. But oil prices dropped dramatically, because Iran said that it had warned Qatar before the attack in order to minimize the risk of casualties.

This is game theory in action, symbolic submission, Iran showing the United States it doesn’t want a real war and will tolerate the damage it’s already taken. Of course, the Iranians may mean this attack as a diversion — just as Trump wrongfooted them with his talk of waiting to decide on attacking Iran, even as our B-2s were airborne.

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(Calling it like it is… even when that means I might have been overly cautious.)

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But barring some surprise escalation, the last 72 hours have to be viewed as a YUGE win for Trump and Israel. At a minimum, they have pushed Iran’s nuclear program back years. They’ve also taken out most Iran’s top military leadership and shown that Iran is powerless against Western air power. And they have done so with no American and few Israeli casualties. The enemy gets a vote, and Iran seems to have picked peace.

Credit where it is due. Trump is a man - and president - of instinct. And his instincts (again, at least for now) appear correct.

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(This morning’s story)

1. In craps, a player who rolls a seven on his first roll wins.