Follow the money

If campaign donations are any guide, the felony conviction of Donald Trump for misclassifying internal accounting records (!) has energized Republicans far more than Democrats.

(Note: I know many of you want me to weigh in on Monday’s Congressional testimony of Dr. Anthony S. Fauci; I want to think through what we’re seeing and put it in context of the documents that have come recently out before I do. Meanwhile...)

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Thursday’s felony verdict in Manhattan against Donald Trump has led to a massive wave of campaign donations for Trump that may reshape the 2024 Presidential election if it continues.

Between Thursday and Sunday, Trump received $70 million from small individual donors, as well as an additional $130 million in pledges from larger donors, his son Eric said on Fox News on Sunday.

The $130 million apparently comes mostly from a promise of at least $90 million from Dr. Miriam Adelson, the widow of casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. The Adelsons backed Trump strongly in 2020, so Miriam’s donation cannot be viewed entirely as a response to Trump’s trial or verdict.

But even putting aside big pledges from megadonors, the $70 million that Trump received from smaller donors represents an extraordinary haul. In the entire 2020 campaign, Trump raised and spent just over $700 million.

He has now picked up 10 percent of that in three days.

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(I don’t need $70 million. Just 20 cents a day.)

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The gusher of money is especially important for Trump because he has spent well over $100 million since 2021 defending himself in his four criminal cases, including the just-completed Manhattan trial.

Meanwhile, in both 2016 and 2020, Trump’s campaign ran at a severe financial disadvantage to his Democratic opponents.

Large donors strongly supported Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, even though in the 2020 campaign Trump had the theoretical advantage of incumbency. Biden’s campaign spent over $1 billion in 2020, 50 percent more than Trump. and outside groups allied with Biden outspent similar Trump-affiliated backers by even more.

In all, Biden and his allies poured in $1.7 billion in 2020, while Trump and his supporters spent about $1 billion.

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(Grab ‘em by the checkbook…)

SOURCE

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There is no guarantee that the flood of small donations will continue, or that megadonors will necessarily follow through on their pledges.

But if Trump even begins to approach parity with Biden in fundraising, his campaign will suddenly have new options. Those might include making good on his promise to campaign in New Jersey, where 16,000 people cheered wildly for Trump at a UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) event Saturday night in Newark, following an even larger crowd at a Trump event in south Jersey three weeks ago.

Of course, New Jersey went for Biden by 12 percentage points in 2020, and Trump probably has little realistic shot at winning the state. But the money flooding in is the most tangible evidence yet that Trump’s guilty verdict may have paradoxically bolstered Republican enthusiasm for his candidacy.